Digital sales have put the opening to above 2.5m which means the game in 3 days sold around half the LT of prior games.

So that 1.88 million is just Physical copies?

Yes.

With the amount of people who are just sitting at home because of the pandemic, it is hard to know how many digital sales there will be. It seems reasonable to think it is high. A lot of people are just going to download the game instead of leaving the house to shop.

Woah, Nelly! That IS bold. I'm guessing no, but... that was a hell of a first week.

Thank you good sir, now let’s have a looksie here....

If AC does in fact sells around 700k in its second week we are looking at roughly 2.6mil sold with shortages in its first 2 weeks (first quarter). Add in digital which I’ll put it under 35% (lol) so let’s say 1.2mil. That’ll make Q1 ship+Digital over 3.8mil.

AC new leaf first quarter was around 2.3mil-2.5mil? First quarter which is 8 weeks and holiday.

Now Q2 will have shortages in the beginning as well as multiple 100k/200k weeks including Golden Week holiday. That could well be over 1.4mil in Q2 alone which would put it above 5.2mil and that doesn’t include summer quarter and especially holiday quarter (and rest of life)

I don’t believe hardware will slow down anytime if we exclude worldwide shortages, so it’s looking real good. 6mil is the floor and that’s only if the game comes crashing down

Well, it's a BOLD Tbone prediction.

In other words, nothing you should bet against, since those always seem to play out right.

My take: It will beat GS for sure, and could go the distance and beat RGB on the very long run (aka will take several years), but that's gonna be very difficult to pull off.

Maybe this isn’t bold enough lol

It’s at 2.6mil retail in 2 weeks

At retail when factoring in digital it's likely at 4m total already.

It's crazy how Animal Crossing has become even bigger than Pokemon in Japan.