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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will Switch pass Wii?

 

When will Switch pass Wii?

Holiday 2021 31 19.38%
 
Early 2022 12 7.50%
 
Mid 2022 14 8.75%
 
Holiday 2022 34 21.25%
 
Early 2023 15 9.38%
 
Mid 2023 10 6.25%
 
Holiday 2023 15 9.38%
 
2024 or later 6 3.75%
 
Never 23 14.38%
 
Total:160
curl-6 on 25 January 2020
miqdadi said:
Eagle367 said:

And how likely is that?

Well Nintendo may not care for that result so it may not pass it, they done great supporting Switch but who knows when will they move to the next one, Unlike Sony Nintendo never cared for this all they care about after their console is a success is to sell software and break records with that

Of the 12 systems Nintendo have released to date, I can think of only two, Wii and GBA, that were successful but cut short early.

As Eagle points out, they're still selling the 3DS which is not only approaching its 9th birthday but was much less successful than the Switch.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 25 January 2020

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Bofferbrauer2 on 25 January 2020
curl-6 said:
miqdadi said:

Well Nintendo may not care for that result so it may not pass it, they done great supporting Switch but who knows when will they move to the next one, Unlike Sony Nintendo never cared for this all they care about after their console is a success is to sell software and break records with that

Of the 12 systems Nintendo have released to date, I can think of only two, Wii and GBA, that were successful but cut short early.

As Eagle points out, there's still selling the 3DS which is not only approaching its 9th birthday but was much less successful than the Switch.

Don't forget the DS. Nintendo panicked an brought the 3DS at a time where the DS was still selling very well. DS still sold over 20M in 2010, and the 3DS released in early 2011 already. Without it, the DS would have outsold the PS2.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Nu-13 on 25 January 2020
Bofferbrauer2 said:
curl-6 said:

Of the 12 systems Nintendo have released to date, I can think of only two, Wii and GBA, that were successful but cut short early.

As Eagle points out, there's still selling the 3DS which is not only approaching its 9th birthday but was much less successful than the Switch.

Don't forget the DS. Nintendo panicked an brought the 3DS at a time where the DS was still selling very well. DS still sold over 20M in 2010, and the 3DS released in early 2011 already. Without it, the DS would have outsold the PS2.

The ds was over 6 years old when the 3ds came out. That isn't panic.



Bofferbrauer2 on 26 January 2020
Nu-13 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Don't forget the DS. Nintendo panicked an brought the 3DS at a time where the DS was still selling very well. DS still sold over 20M in 2010, and the 3DS released in early 2011 already. Without it, the DS would have outsold the PS2.

The ds was over 6 years old when the 3ds came out. That isn't panic.

Yes, they panicked. They panicked because the Vita was also about to release, and Nintendo thought they needed a new System to put against it. Otherwise, they would certainly have let the DS continue for longer. I mean, why replace a system that's still pulling over 20M a year?



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Kristof81 on 26 January 2020

Assuming that this year is a peak year for the Switch, sometime in H1 2022. If not then, 2023.



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Mbolibombo on 26 January 2020

last quarter of 2022 seems the most likely to hit 100M. As the last quarter of the year is where Nintendo sells the bulk of it's hardware and it alligns pretty well with how it looks right now. I'm assuming we'll get news of the Switch being at roughly 52M (give or take a million) this upcoming week and as I'm on the 2020-as-peak-year boat. Below is how I think it might look.

2019 ~51-53M
2020 ~ 72-75M
2021 ~90-93M
2022 ~105-108M



Nu-13 on 26 January 2020
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Nu-13 said:

The ds was over 6 years old when the 3ds came out. That isn't panic.

Yes, they panicked. They panicked because the Vita was also about to release, and Nintendo thought they needed a new System to put against it. Otherwise, they would certainly have let the DS continue for longer. I mean, why replace a system that's still pulling over 20M a year?

Because it had been 6 effing years, saturation was being reached, the competition was making their move and they had to move on.

Last edited by Nu-13 - on 26 January 2020

curl-6 on 26 January 2020

It's worth noting that like the 3DS, the DS continued to see support even after the release of its replacement, which is very different from Wii where support dried up well before its successor arrived.

Switch should get treatment more similar to DS/3DS, which would give it an edge against the Wii in lifetime sales.



zorg1000 on 26 January 2020
curl-6 said:

It's worth noting that like the 3DS, the DS continued to see support even after the release of its replacement, which is very different from Wii where support dried up well before its successor arrived.

Switch should get treatment more similar to DS/3DS, which would give it an edge against the Wii in lifetime sales.

Same with GBA, it was supported for about a year and a half after DS released.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

curl-6 on 26 January 2020
zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

It's worth noting that like the 3DS, the DS continued to see support even after the release of its replacement, which is very different from Wii where support dried up well before its successor arrived.

Switch should get treatment more similar to DS/3DS, which would give it an edge against the Wii in lifetime sales.

Same with GBA, it was supported for about a year and a half after DS released.

Nintendo tend to support their handhelds a lot longer than their home consoles, hopefully Switch inherits the handheld genes in this regard.