I haven't seen this discussion elsewhere, so I'm going to start it: How much are 3DS games going to sell this holiday season?
Holiday Season consists of release date through the rest of 2012. So yes, NSMB2's Holiday season started in August. Sue me.
From my understanding, there are quite a fewgames coming out for the 3DS this Fall, but relatively few big sellers. This can either make it interesting or boring. Anyway, starting with the big one.
New Super Mario Bros 2 - This game is getting off to a worse start than its predecessor. At the moment, it is being outsold nearly 2 to 1 by its DS predecessor, aligning the Japanese launches. No doubt this game will be hurt by the mediocre reviews (78%? For Mario?) and a case of sequelitis, not helped by competition from the Wii U game later this year. Still, I believe, like most sane people, that NSMB2 will sell in excess of 10 million lifetime. Therefore, based once again on the current ratios and preexisting data, I believe that NSMB2 will sell in the neighborhood of 3 to 3.5 Million in 2012, or somewhat less than half of what NSMB did months later into the DS's life and with and extra month or two to work with.
Paper Mario: Sticker Star - Paper Mario and Mario RPGs in general are a strong brand. Super Paper Mario sold about 3.3 million, and Bowser's Inside Story sold 3.7 million. Even the worst selling games in both franchises were solid million sellers. And considering the lack of competition this holiday, except from the other big Mario game, Paper Mario: Sticker Star has a chance to be one of the better selling Mario RPGs, especially if it reviews well. That said, it will be a long seller, considering the unlikelihood of another 3DS installment and the earliness of the 3DS's life. So I'm predicting it will sell about 1 million this year, or about half the amount Super PM and BIS got their first years. That said, this will be due to there being less time available for it to sell, not lifetime sales or quality.
Professor Layton 5 - Time for the bad news. I don't believe in Layton. Don't get me wrong, the games are great and all. I've just noticed how every new game sells less and less. I'm not sure how well the series will move onto the 3DS. However, Layton still has some life yet! Based on Japanese data for Layton 4 and 5 compared to worldwide data, I believe Layton 5 will sell well over a million units lifetime worldwide, despite diminishing sales in America. In total, I expect 700,000 sales to occur within Q4 of 2012.
Skylanders Giants - Although it was predominantly a hit on the Wii, Skylanders also sold a cool 310,000 or so on the 3DS. Personally, I think the new game has a chance of doing similarly well. Skylanders will be big with the Wii U's tech, and the forwards compatibility with the toys ought to boost sales of the game at least. My guess is that this will sell similarly to the original in total, but might be more front loaded. So 200,000 sales in 2012.
Scribblenauts Unlimited - The original Scribblenauts was one of the cool reasons to own a DS back in 2009. By Holiday 2012 however, it will be the 3rd iteration on a Nintendo handheld, and will be competing with PC, Wii U, and iOS entries in the series. I doubt this will surpass 800,000 lifetime sales on the 3DS. Based on the original's legs, that's about 450,000 in 2012.
NSMB - 3 to 3.5 million
Paper Mario: SS - 1 million
Layton 5 - 0.7 million
Scribblenauts Unlimited - 0.45 million
Skylanders Giants - 0.15 to 0.2 million
Other upcoming games include the Adventure Time, Epic Mickey, and Rabbids Rumble. Any predictions for those games? Other predictions for the games I mentioned? Anyone?
Love and tolerate.