Purely anecdotal but my local Wal-Mart (Nintendo country) was sold out of their stock of NSMB2 entirely and SM3DLand as well. Mario Kart 7 was almost cleaned out too.
My guess a lot of 3DS XL adopters were picking those up.
Epic Mickey should do alright, I think Kid Icarus Uprising is also one of those games that will quietly sell under the radar for some time.
I think Paper Mario will be a pretty big hit though actually.