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Forums - Sales Discussion - 2007 is now settled - will 2008 be any different?

Well, 2007 is basically over. We know the results. PS3 / 360 hardware stalemate for the holidays. PSP hardware selling well, software almost non-existant. Assassins Creed biggest sales surprise (kicked butt), Mass Effect not so. Exclusive PS3 titles 'struggling'.

But the single word, that can be used to describe 2007 accurately: Nintendomination.

Nintendo have gone from owning the handheld space, to now also dominating in the console space. And all this in basically 12 months.

The Wii will have sold 18-20m (end '07), and the DS will be around 63-65m. The Wii will have build a lead of 10m over the PS3 in just 12 months - and caught the 360, and established a lead of 3-5m in the same period of time.

Nintendo is doing a great job to "reclaim Europe" - their really weak market. The UK is amazing (latest weekly charts show 5 Wii titles in the top#10!). Some individual countries remain Sony's - and the 360 is falling off fast.

...

Will 2008 be any different from 2007?

All three consoles are now out, we have seen new hardware iterations of the PSP & PS3 - and several for the 360 (none for the DS or Wii). I think we are unlikely to seemany (any?) new hardware releases next year at all - apart from the obligatory new skews (hard disk numbers, colours) for primarily the 360/PS3.

I think 2008 will be the year of consolidation:

  • PSP hardware numbers will drop off (post-Xmas), and the software supply will significantly dry up. Although there are some major titles in development - I am unsure as to whether the PSP will remain a 'serious' platform at the end of '08 (competition from mobile/iPhone space, etc...).
  • Wii will continue to sellout - and although units will be available at points during the year - Xmas '08 will repeat the sellout issue (although with less stress, and more stock).
  • PS3 hardware will significantly falloff after holidays (normal), and sales will revert to around 100k/week (worldwide). The challenge for the PS3 (and 360) is whether they can build significant sales outside of the holiday period (where the Wii excelled last year).

(update...)

  • How will big PS3 titles (such as MGS) perform? This is potentially the biggest unknown, and the single most important thing to be discovered in '08 in my opinion. Im expecting a strong start - but below PS3 fan expectations, and minimal legs. Its how the really new franchises go that will matter more.
  • GTA4 - the most important title in '08? How will it do, how will it sell on both the 360/PS3?
  • HOME? The next big thing, or an elaborate match-making service for multiplayer games?
  • Too Human? Fantastic or flop?
  • What new titles can Ninty pull out of the bag for the Wii? Is 2008 all about Brawl, Mario Kart & WiiFit - or more?
  • Will we see more innovation on the DS? New hardware skew? (fully compatible that is)
  • Will MS announce Halo 4? Or a new spin-off?
  • Will WiiFit basically sellout all year long?
  • Will the PS3 claw back lost ground from the 360? If so - how much? If not - does this spell trouble for the PS3?
Can 2008 show a further sales growth on 2007? Will this be driven by casual gamers, or hardcore gamers?

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I can tell you hate the ps3 :P



 

mM

I can tell you are a huge troll.



Hates Nomura.

Tagged: GooseGaws - <--- Has better taste in games than you.

leo-j said:
I can tell you hate the ps3 :P


You are only figuring this out now? It's been obvious for many months. shams hates the PS3 like poison.

 

For me, I think next year will be like this:

Wii - More of the same. It cannot be stopped now, or even slowed.

360 - Continue to bulid in the US but struggle in Europe outside the UK. The true test will be if the 360 can go through next year without the massive exclusives that have supported them this year. I am also interested to see if MS can improve it's EU status because it's currently lacking.

PS3 - Japan will be steady without being fantastic. It will moderately struggle until Final Fantasy XIII comes along to provide the userbase. I think that the PS3 now has a very firm foot in Europe with a userbase that buys it's games and the encouraging thing is that they managed it without any of the big PS3 games being released yet. US market will remain a struggle until MGS4 launches but I think it crucial for Sony to launch MGS4 before GTAIV launches or Sony will suffer greatly. A $300 PS3 is basically a must for Sony at this point, they cannot carry on like this in the US.



Very tough to accurately estimate, i would think that Nintendo will have problems restocking Wii's everywhere because of the releases of such games as Mario Kart, Brawl, Wii Fit, No more heroes possibly, the same with FF:CC if it were to be released in the first quarter of 2008. Plus Europe will be getting all the "late" games such as Nights, Medal Of Honor Heroes 2, Zack and Wiki. We also have to take into account that other games might surprise us with sudden releases.

The xbox is quite difficult to say, unless they get fresh SW out to the consumer, it may end up trailing behind the PS3.

As for Sonys' toy, it's really nigh impossible. I have no idea what to expect since many games have failed to bring the HW sales up to par thus far. Plus we keep hearing about constant delays for such titles as LittleBig Planet, Killzone, posiibly even Metal Gear Solid 4.....it might weaken the good vive which Sony has come up with for this winter season.

Yet i whole-heartedly believe that Wii sales will pick up to even greater amounts than this year. I just hope Nintendo is prepared for the occasion..



Deep into the darkness pearing

Long i stood there

Wondering

Fearing

Doubting. 

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jhlennon1 said:
leo-j said:
I can tell you hate the ps3 :P


You are only figuring this out now? It's been obvious for many months. shams hates the PS3 like poison.

Hate is a strong word he just does have "positive" feelings for it.

Shams: Excellent post hope you update soon. 



 

reading that didn't give me any impression he didn't like the ps3 o.o
the ps3 is just last is all and of course in being last it will have not so great sells.

All of what he says seems logical, wii/ds selling great while others selling pretty good to good.



to me 2008 will be the year of the "price war"...and eventually i will enter the next generation
(both X360 and PS3 are still waaaaaay too expensive for me)



2008 year end sales (made in January 2008):

44.2 M 27.1 M 20.8 M

Well if PS3 can have a stalemate with 360 this year

next year it will undoubtedly BEAT it...



Supporter of

 SONY & Nintendo

 Consoles owned - SNES, N64, PS, GC, PS2, PSP, PS3

 I DO NOT support Xbox

My prediction for YEARS END:

WII - 18.3 Million

Xbox 360 - 15 Million

Playstation 3 - 8.5 Million

darthdevidem said:
Well if PS3 can have a stalemate with 360 this year

next year it will undoubtedly BEAT it...

 seems to be the case....