2007 is now settled - will 2008 be any different?

[shams]

Well, 2007 is basically over. We know the results. PS3 / 360 hardware stalemate for the holidays. PSP hardware selling well, software almost non-existant. Assassins Creed biggest sales surprise (kicked butt), Mass Effect not so. Exclusive PS3 titles 'struggling'.

But the single word, that can be used to describe 2007 accurately: Nintendomination.

Nintendo have gone from owning the handheld space, to now also dominating in the console space. And all this in basically 12 months.

The Wii will have sold 18-20m (end '07), and the DS will be around 63-65m. The Wii will have build a lead of 10m over the PS3 in just 12 months - and caught the 360, and established a lead of 3-5m in the same period of time.

Nintendo is doing a great job to "reclaim Europe" - their really weak market. The UK is amazing (latest weekly charts show 5 Wii titles in the top#10!). Some individual countries remain Sony's - and the 360 is falling off fast.

...

Will 2008 be any different from 2007?

All three consoles are now out, we have seen new hardware iterations of the PSP & PS3 - and several for the 360 (none for the DS or Wii). I think we are unlikely to seemany (any?) new hardware releases next year at all - apart from the obligatory new skews (hard disk numbers, colours) for primarily the 360/PS3.

I think 2008 will be the year of consolidation:

• PSP hardware numbers will drop off (post-Xmas), and the software supply will significantly dry up. Although there are some major titles in development - I am unsure as to whether the PSP will remain a 'serious' platform at the end of '08 (competition from mobile/iPhone space, etc...).
• Wii will continue to sellout - and although units will be available at points during the year - Xmas '08 will repeat the sellout issue (although with less stress, and more stock).
• PS3 hardware will significantly falloff after holidays (normal), and sales will revert to around 100k/week (worldwide). The challenge for the PS3 (and 360) is whether they can build significant sales outside of the holiday period (where the Wii excelled last year).

(update...)

• How will big PS3 titles (such as MGS) perform? This is potentially the biggest unknown, and the single most important thing to be discovered in '08 in my opinion. Im expecting a strong start - but below PS3 fan expectations, and minimal legs. Its how the really new franchises go that will matter more.
• GTA4 - the most important title in '08? How will it do, how will it sell on both the 360/PS3?
• HOME? The next big thing, or an elaborate match-making service for multiplayer games?
• Too Human? Fantastic or flop?
• What new titles can Ninty pull out of the bag for the Wii? Is 2008 all about Brawl, Mario Kart & WiiFit - or more?
• Will we see more innovation on the DS? New hardware skew? (fully compatible that is)
• Will MS announce Halo 4? Or a new spin-off?
• Will WiiFit basically sellout all year long?
• Will the PS3 claw back lost ground from the 360? If so - how much? If not - does this spell trouble for the PS3?

Can 2008 show a further sales growth on 2007? Will this be driven by casual gamers, or hardcore gamers?