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Original Message (newest first):

Seems Hybrid Switch was up this Quarter and Lite sales declined to 26% of total sales, so your position from earlier in the thread seems to be incorrect @yo33331

I expect the same to happen with your expectation of OLED having minimal impact on sales, OLED in combination with Pokemon Remakes, Mario Party, SMT V, Wario, Metroid and other third party titles will ensure it can actually be up YoY in the final Quarter of the year where Nintendo makes the majority of its sales. Last year we had abnormally large sales during Q2+Q3 of the CY year due to New Horizon & COVID, things slowed down in Q4 - this year it's the other way around - most sales will be concentrated in Q1(Chinese new year; Bowsers Fury; MH Rise) & Q4(OLED, Remakes).

Q4 Shipments last year were only 11.57 million, while the rest of the year shipments were 15.82 million, usually hardware sales of Nintendo consoles in Q4 > Q1+Q2+Q3, so knowing that Q1 was 4.73 million & Q2 was 4.5 million we are looking at the best fall Quarter for the Switch so far, heading into next year where an Open World Pokemon, Splatoon 3 and Breath of the Wild sequel launch.

Also underestimating the amount of support Switch is receiving at the moment by Japanese third parties is definitely not something you seem to consider, next year with Splatoon 3 launching it will rejuvenate demand among the younger audience due to the amount of marketing Nintendo will give the title in Japan specifically. I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up eclipsing New Horizon as the biggest launch of a game in Japan so far, next year will the software peak in Japan which will ensure that Switch surpasses 4.5 million in it's 6th year on the market in Japan with just 25% of hardware coming from Japan(right now Japan is below 20%), we are still looking at a minimum 18 million. There is no reason to expect that Switch continues to dominate over 90% of the hardware and software market in Japan during 2022, which will have profound impacts on the amount of games PS5 will start loosing in its home country.

It's a self fulfilling prophecy but Japanese market and Japanese publishers shouldn't be underestimated as rest of East Asia will follow the trends we are seeing in Japan these past few years, in some markets like South Korea Nintendo actually enjoys an even larger piece of the pie. We've never seen one hardware maker enjoy such a dominance over such a large market in recent times, Japan gaming has gone back to 2014 levels but it's all concentrated on one platform. The top selling game on the PS5 this year Resident Evil: Village is under 100K copies, while Shin-chan is likely to end up outselling both the PS4/PS5 versions of the latest installment in the Resident Evil franchise in Japan... This facts shouldn't be overlooked

I simply have the opposite opinion to you and have laid out why.

In terms of Software 2020 < 2021 < 2022

Switch hardware will be at minimum 125 million at the end of the 2022



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Okay now I'm salty; I go to the trouble of digging up noteworthy examples of Pachter's awful predictions over the years and I get less likes than you guys? Smh, there is no justice in this universe. EDIT: I was kidding around but thanks, feeling the love now haha.

As for yo's account, if he hadn't been here since 2011 I'd suspect another quickrick alt. Unless... quicktick was a yo33331 alt? (X-files music)

Last edited by curl-6 - on 17 July 2021

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

RolStoppable said:

Maybe we've all been wrong along and yo33331 is a joke account. If so, well played.

yeah... I think this too.

well played indeed 



yo33331 said:

So all in all even Pachter agrees with me and is saying that more of the users are playing in handheld mode than docked. That's why Nintendo releases new model that is only improving the picture when you are in handheld mode, and they are doing nothing for the docked mode. Watch the video at 2:40. Also other thing that is the same as what I said is the 25M projection of sales for this year.

Pachter is not even an analyst, he's a clown making dumb and absurd statements to gain attention and through that clicks and money.

You say "even Pachter" as if he's incredibly reliable, lol.

Last edited by Kakadu18 - on 16 July 2021

All this has to be a joke. Pachter ? Really ?



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yo33331 said:

So all in all even Pachter agrees with me and is saying that more of the users are playing in handheld mode than docked. That's why Nintendo releases new model that is only improving the picture when you are in handheld mode, and they are doing nothing for the docked mode. Watch the video at 2:40. Also other thing that is the same as what I said is the 25M projection of sales for this year.

Pachter is an idiot. Remember when he said Nintendo should get rid of the hybrid Switch model and only sell the lite model because nobody plays docked? ...wait.



yo33331 said:

So all in all even Pachter agrees with me and is saying that more of the users are playing in handheld mode than docked. That's why Nintendo releases new model that is only improving the picture when you are in handheld mode, and they are doing nothing for the docked mode. Watch the video at 2:40. Also other thing that is the same as what I said is the 25M projection of sales for this year.

Dude... That may be the blackest stain on your argument yet.

The quickest way to lose credibility on this site is to side with Pachter.

The guy is a joke and his predictions are a joke.



yo33331 said:

So all in all even Pachter agrees with me and is saying that more of the users are playing in handheld mode than docked. That's why Nintendo releases new model that is only improving the picture when you are in handheld mode, and they are doing nothing for the docked mode. Watch the video at 2:40. Also other thing that is the same as what I said is the 25M projection of sales for this year.

Bruh.

That is the biggest sign you're wrong yet.



yo33331 said:

So all in all even Pachter agrees with me and is saying that more of the users are playing in handheld mode than docked. That's why Nintendo releases new model that is only improving the picture when you are in handheld mode, and they are doing nothing for the docked mode. Watch the video at 2:40. Also other thing that is the same as what I said is the 25M projection of sales for this year.

Pachter is a moron who is wrong all the time.

He said in 2009 that PS3/360/Wii would be the last generation of consoles: “I think we’ve seen the last generation of consoles. [Third party publishers] are not going to support a PS4 or Xbox 720." https://www.escapistmagazine.com/v2/pachter-this-is-the-final-generation/

Then he said the same thing about PS4/Xbox One/Wii U in 2015: https://gamerant.com/pachter-console-cycle-926/

He predicted in 2006 that Nintendo would soon pull out of the console business and motion controls wouldn't catch on: https://segmentnext.com/2015/12/10/a-visionary-history-of-michael-pachters-bold-predictions/

He predicted GTA5 would come out in 2010, then in 2012: https://www.psu.com/news/ps4-fails-xbox-one-bumblings-5-things-michael-pachter-was-wrong-about/

He predicted the Xbox One would sell 100 to 110 million units: https://gamerant.com/pachter-console-cycle-926/

The guy's a clown and his words have no credibility.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 16 July 2021

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

QuickRicksDad said:
Norion said:

This is the most entertaining weekly sales thread in a while. It brings me back to the quickrick days when threads like this were common.

Oh my.  How long has my son been doing this?

I literally just noticed your username and that your account is brand new lol.