Which system will sell more in 2026: Switch 2 or PS5?

[Mnementh]

BraLoD said:

Mnementh said:

Well, we'll see this year (barred any more delays) how GTA affect PS5 sales.

And no, 120-130M is not magic, it will get there in the few years left. But if you assume a lifetime of 120-130M, then how do you see GTA6 reversing the normal decline of the platform (which is the thing I am referring to as magic), because if PS5 would do 20M this year for instance, it would shoot past that mark. I expect PS5 to have 15M this year (putting it at about 105M), then 10M in 2027 (bringing the total to 115) and then maybe 10M in the remaining time after, which brings it exactly into your area of expected lifetime sales. But that means PS5 is taking a normal trajectory of yearly decline as is usually the case for older consoles. If you assume GTA reverses direction of PS5 sales, then your lifetime expectation would be affected as well. But your lifetime expectations line up pretty well with yearly decline in sales and therefore GTA don't having an effect so massive that this changes.

And if we assume a normal decline to maybe 15M, then PS5 falls already behind Switch 2 sales in 2025, which wasn't even a full year for S2, so bringing the answer to the question of the thread to the Switch side. So you agree with me, that Switch 2 will probably beat PS5 this year, because your lifetime expectation for PS5 is certainly in line with this?

If one expect it to reach 130M a 10M 2027 would make it hard to achieve, unless it does have good legs, unlike the PS4.

For example, I expect it to sell 17.1M in 2026, and even as I don't have any predictions for 2027 yet, 13-14M should be decent, as I don't believe the PS6 will be even announced at all that year and we will likely have the next Santa Monica and Naughty Dog game coming that year, so that would mean 30-31M in those 2 years, and 9-10M left for it to cross 130M, which would theb have the PS6 be announced and released by 2028, IMO, heavily affecting the PS5 sales from there on.

I can see PS6 being more expensive than PS5, given the prices of GPUs and RAM. That would give PS5 some legs as a cheaper system, especially since probably first year or so nearly everything will be cross-gen.

Last edited by Mnementh - 23 hours ago