Mnementh on 23 July 2024
According to 538 analysis Pennsylvania is the state most likely to be the tipping point. But other states are also heavily in play here: Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, Arizona. This is still based on Biden as candidate though, although with the strong partisan split I doubt that Harris will change much here. Maybe restore some confidence in democrat voters who lost it after seeing Biden decline. 538 has for the moment paused predictions, until the DNC makes their pick official and probably waits for a few polls with the new candidate, then they will restart calculations based on that. Will be interesting to see if Harris will shift the prediction a lot.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
Last edited by Mnementh - on 23 July 2024
