on 26 September 2021
Early indications show in multiple provinces a higher than usual participation. Which usually is a bad sign for the governing party, because activated earlier non-voters aren't often in support of the current government. Especially since they felt the need to vote this time. When in Baden-Württemberg 2011 five million people voted instead of four million, it lead to historic bad results for the CDU and the Greens taking over government.
I actually expected a lower voter turnout.
The turnout already rose by about 5% between 2013 and 2017 which is likely to be attributed to the AfD (for both votes in favour of AfD and against them). There's no new party that could get into Bundestag this time around, whereas in 2017 both the FDP and AfD joined after failing in 2013 by a hair.
Also the candidates don't seem better than last time. Laschet clearly can't mobilize as many voters as Merkel, while Scholz (just as Laschet) is regarded as the guy wanting to continue the great coalition's politics.
It's not the same everywhere, but some provinces have a higher turnout. But reading into it a bit deeper, that might also because of a higher amount of mail-in votes. So maybe that statement from me was a bit early. We'll see.
On the other hand, for the first time since I vote I was waiting in a line. But maybe that's just me. Or they reorganized stuff and have fewer voting places.
Last edited by Mnementh - on 26 September 2021
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