Well if they do ship 10 million over the holiday quarter than they need to average ~3.33 million in the other 3 quarters.
Last year the 3 non-holiday quarters averaged 2.6 million. Q1 only did 1.96 million due to severe production shortages, thats no longer a factor so shipments this quarter should be higher even if sell through is slightly lower.
Also with Pokemon+Smash in Nov/Dec vs Odyssey in Oct last year, it should cause for bigger post-holiday momentum so Q4 should be higher.
Even if they miss their target, they should still be pretty close.
Current sales 170K according to VGC. A quarter has 13 weeks. That makes 2.2M, quite a bit lower than your goal of 3.3M. As I said, weekly sales should soon start to improve. Otherwise the holidays have to be spectacular.