Next generation of console

[Mnementh]

To predict the next gen, first the outcome of this gen have to be considered. My take on this Wii: > 100M, XBOX 360: 40-60M, PS3: 20-30M. All following is based on this outcome. Release dates: As the XBOX360 started first and dont win this generation, the MS3-console will start at the end of 2011. As PS3 runs bad the PS4 will also start at a similar date or only shortly after. Nintendo will release it 6th console at last, mid or end of the year 2012. Graphical output: At this time I think HDTV is significant enough that all three consoles will support it. Maybe one console will support more than 24million colors - if a tv-standard exists for that. Input: All consoles will have motion controls, but I doubt that everyone wants a Wiimote/Nunchuk-combo. That depends on how well this combo gets supported this gen. I like dtewi's idea of touch-screen-display on controller for different button-setups. Possibly one of the three will try something similar. But I doubt the real big suprises on the controller-front, it will be more consolidation on the possibilities of motion-control. Internet: Yes, all. Internal mass storage: This gen PS3 and XBOX360 using harddrives (one XBOX-model has none) and Wii a Solid-State-disk. With the strong progress on SSD's lately I'm sure in the nextgen all three are using SSD's. Graphic-chip: Hmm, all three are using an separate graphic-chip this gen. But 2009 AMD and Intel will release CPU's with integrated GPU's. That may be something for the future. Three possibilities: 1. A CPU/GPU-combo as this gen, with external chip for GPU. 2. An integrated GPU in the CPU. and 3. The CPU has commands for maniputlating 3D-objects (like SSE for multimedia) and it is no GPU present, only a little chip to output the video-signal. Of all three I like the third variant the most. I know NVidia hopes the most for the first variant (on the other two their services are unneeded). I would say Nintendo and MS choose variant 2 and Sony #3. CPU: MS will stick mainly with the CPU of the XBOX360. It is relatively easy to develop for (compared with PS3) and powerful. This time it is multiprocessor (3-core) PowerPC, next time they will increase the number of cores and the power of a single core, but mostly it's the same. Nintendo will also use a multicore-CPU. I doubt a single core will be powerful enough 2011/2012 and the experience to develop for mu8lticores will be present this time, as most new PC-CPU's are3 multicore. Hard to pedict Sony, I somehow doubt they will stick with the Cell, but who knows... Compatibility: The best compatibility will have the successor of the XBOX360, as Microsoft will use a slightly extended variant of their hardware. Nintendo and Sony will have decent compatibility, but both will use software emulation to fulfill it. Game media: This generation all three are using optical media. That is inevitable to maintain compatibility. So I predict that MS will stick with optical media, they will use the winner of the HD-disc-formats. Whoever that will be. Nintendo and Sony however ... they might a try at cartridges - if the prices are down enough for decent amounts of memory (25GB at least). That would be cool, think if you dont have to put the disc into the console, but simply sit in your chair and plug the cartridge into the controller. However, this visions needs some technical progress on ROMs, I'm not sure if there will be enough. If not also Sony and Nintendo will use the winner out of the HD-disc-formats. [Edit: I forgot about a third possibility. Game content could be streamed from the internet as you play. That could be an additional to other media-formats.] launch price: MS: 250-350$, Sony: 200-400$, Nintendo: 250-400$. Nobody will try again to sell a console at 600$.