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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Predict when will PS4 Outsell Game Boy

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When will PS4 Outsell Game Boy ?

2020 13 30.95%
 
2021 16 38.10%
 
2022 3 7.14%
 
2023 2 4.76%
 
2024 0 0%
 
2025 0 0%
 
Never 2 4.76%
 
COVID-19 (Corona virus) will kill us all 6 14.29%
 
Total:42
Nu-13 on 28 February 2020
DonFerrari said:
Nu-13 said:

If you're going to make this kind of post, at least you should try to write a reasoning for your statement. As in, explain the relation between shippments being at 109m and you thinking it will reach 120m for sure.

MY statement was very clearly explained by math. It was at 109m shipped and 106m sold at the end of 2019. Sold through is what matters (difference between shipped and sold will get smaller and smaller anyway). A 45% drop in 2020 would lead to 114m and another 55-60% drop in 2021 would put it around 117m. The ongoing decline afterwards would lead to maybe another 2-3m sales before discontinuation. Given the rate of ps4 drop so far, those numbers are very realistic.

See the difference between an argument and simply dismissing what others said?

And it would drop 45% this year because of witchcraft right?

Come next week it will be around 40% down yoy. If you think another 5% or more for the rest of the year is witchcraft, that's on you.



DonFerrari on 28 February 2020
Nu-13 said:
DonFerrari said:

And it would drop 45% this year because of witchcraft right?

Come next week it will be around 40% down yoy. If you think another 5% or more for the rest of the year is witchcraft, that's on you.

So one month of data is enough to predict the rest of the year and the year beyond? But using the whole sales curve would be bad right?

I really want to see this scenario where this year PS4 sells only 6M.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Keiji on 28 February 2020
DonFerrari said:
Nu-13 said:

Come next week it will be around 40% down yoy. If you think another 5% or more for the rest of the year is witchcraft, that's on you.

So one month of data is enough to predict the rest of the year and the year beyond? But using the whole sales curve would be bad right?

I really want to see this scenario where this year PS4 sells only 6M.

Yes me too ! I can already smell the crows for dinner for someone...



Nu-13 on 28 February 2020
DonFerrari said:
Nu-13 said:

Come next week it will be around 40% down yoy. If you think another 5% or more for the rest of the year is witchcraft, that's on you.

So one month of data is enough to predict the rest of the year and the year beyond? But using the whole sales curve would be bad right?

I really want to see this scenario where this year PS4 sells only 6M.

Now this is just priceless. For starters, math would do wonders for you since we have two months of data (not 1) for 2020 and a 45% decline would result in a little under 8m (not 6) for the year. Are you seriously complaining about me using 2020 numbers to predict 2020 numbers? What else do you expect me to use? 2014 numbers? 2015? History says the decline will not stop until discontinuation, so YES, I can use recent numbers to make estimations for this year and beyond. And the hell are you talking about sales curve? It's declining, no mistery here.

Instead of downplaying my predictions because you dislike the numbers in them, why don't you show your own predictions and argument why you think they will come true?



Keiji on 28 February 2020
Nu-13 said:
DonFerrari said:

So one month of data is enough to predict the rest of the year and the year beyond? But using the whole sales curve would be bad right?

I really want to see this scenario where this year PS4 sells only 6M.

Now this is just priceless. For starters, math would do wonders for you since we have two months of data (not 1) for 2020 and a 45% decline would result in a little under 8m (not 6) for the year. Are you seriously complaining about me using 2020 numbers to predict 2020 numbers? What else do you expect me to use? 2014 numbers? 2015? History says the decline will not stop until discontinuation, so YES, I can use recent numbers to make estimations for this year and beyond. And the hell are you talking about sales curve? It's declining, no mistery here.

Instead of downplaying my predictions because you dislike the numbers in them, why don't you show your own predictions and argument why you think they will come true?

Did you read my beautiful post ? This is the best PS4 year of all time when we are talking about great/fantastic games. You don't get it because you don't see the light. But DonFerrari, me and so many others we see the light.

Don't underestimate the biggest market of the world.

User was Banned for this post, among others - cycycychris

Last edited by cycycychris - on 28 February 2020

DonFerrari on 28 February 2020
Nu-13 said:
DonFerrari said:

So one month of data is enough to predict the rest of the year and the year beyond? But using the whole sales curve would be bad right?

I really want to see this scenario where this year PS4 sells only 6M.

Now this is just priceless. For starters, math would do wonders for you since we have two months of data (not 1) for 2020 and a 45% decline would result in a little under 8m (not 6) for the year. Are you seriously complaining about me using 2020 numbers to predict 2020 numbers? What else do you expect me to use? 2014 numbers? 2015? History says the decline will not stop until discontinuation, so YES, I can use recent numbers to make estimations for this year and beyond. And the hell are you talking about sales curve? It's declining, no mistery here.

Instead of downplaying my predictions because you dislike the numbers in them, why don't you show your own predictions and argument why you think they will come true?

My LTD prediction is 120-130M and have been for like 2 years.

And which 2 years of data you have? VGC? Because NPD we have one month, Japan we have almost 2 (but it already declined there a lot), Europe and RoW we have 0. So I'm sorry if we don't trust your pessimistic prediction that PS4 could even not pass GB 120M even if it needs to ship about 10M for that.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

0D0 on 28 February 2020

I'd say 2021.

Now the real question is if PS4 can hit PS2. Let's hope Sony make PS4 $150 some months after PS5. :P



God bless You.

My Total Sales prediction for PS4 by the end of 2021: 110m+

When PS4 will hit 100m consoles sold: Before Christmas 2019

There were three ravens sat on a tree / They were as blacke as they might be / The one of them said to his mate, Where shall we our breakfast take?


TeamGuard on 28 February 2020

It could be 2022



Nu-13 on 28 February 2020
DonFerrari said:
Nu-13 said:

Now this is just priceless. For starters, math would do wonders for you since we have two months of data (not 1) for 2020 and a 45% decline would result in a little under 8m (not 6) for the year. Are you seriously complaining about me using 2020 numbers to predict 2020 numbers? What else do you expect me to use? 2014 numbers? 2015? History says the decline will not stop until discontinuation, so YES, I can use recent numbers to make estimations for this year and beyond. And the hell are you talking about sales curve? It's declining, no mistery here.

Instead of downplaying my predictions because you dislike the numbers in them, why don't you show your own predictions and argument why you think they will come true?

My LTD prediction is 120-130M and have been for like 2 years.

And which 2 years of data you have? VGC? Because NPD we have one month, Japan we have almost 2 (but it already declined there a lot), Europe and RoW we have 0. So I'm sorry if we don't trust your pessimistic prediction that PS4 could even not pass GB 120M even if it needs to ship about 10M for that.

Realistic =/= pessimistic. And again with this shipped stuff? SOLD THROUGH numbers are what matter and the gap between shipped and sold will quickly shrink until it eventually dissapears. It has to SELL another 14m after dec 2019 to reach 120m and that's unlikely at the current pace. And let me get this straight, you complain that I'm using actual recent numbers to predict future sales while you keep a prediction from 2 years ago based on old numbers?



Keiji on 28 February 2020
Nu-13 said:
DonFerrari said:

My LTD prediction is 120-130M and have been for like 2 years.

And which 2 years of data you have? VGC? Because NPD we have one month, Japan we have almost 2 (but it already declined there a lot), Europe and RoW we have 0. So I'm sorry if we don't trust your pessimistic prediction that PS4 could even not pass GB 120M even if it needs to ship about 10M for that.

that's unlikely at the current pace.

Did you read my messages or do you just skim through it ?

I have mentioned important games and I must add there will probably be a price drop for PS4, there is no way it will sell so little this year like you said or should I say hope.

You don't like my face ? I'm not pretty enough ?

I can transform myself into Super Sayain look.

User was Banned for this post, among others - cycycychris

Last edited by cycycychris - on 28 February 2020