woah woah twroo i wouldn't be looking for a $400 80gb ps3 this xmas. maybe next xmas. this year you'll be lucky if it goes down to $500. i wouldn't be surprised if the price stays where it is this xmas and by the end of the holiday season they can be sure all the 60gb units are gone and very early next year drop the 80gb to $500. MAYBE by next holiday season there will be another drop to $400. the 80gb might drop to $500 by the end of '07 but no way in hell will $400 be here for another year. and no way will ps3 even ship 11 million by the end of '07 unless they are talking about the fiscal year in march.

i expect ps3 to hit around 7 million sales by the end of the year (think about it, 1 million more through the end of september and october and into the beginning of november. then maybe 1.5 in november/december for the holiday season. can't see it being any higher than that). 360 is at 11 million now, they have a great lineup this fall so maybe 12.5 by early november and another 2 million for the holidays so no higher than 14.5 million i'd say. wii at over 11.5 now. maybe 13 by early november then they unleash their built up stores of consoles so maybe 3 million more for the holidays so 16 million.
so wii 16 mil, 360 14.5 mil, ps3 7 mil. guarantee i'm not more than .5 mil off on any of those predictions.

I have been in gaming for nearly 30 years and can spot a dud on sight. That Diomedes dude is hella mad for making his P$3 purchase based on 'potential.' Yeah, the PS3 can win this war but there has to be some compelling reason for folks to buy a PS3 vs. a 360. The 360 is definitely getting killed in Japan - but so what? Is there a rule that states if you don't win Japan, you don't win the war? What that tells me is ... if you are going losing in one area, fight harder in the others.

I have only met a few PS3 owners who will admit that Sony's thinking is flawed. Most folks get defensive about their P$3 ... but most 360 owners are a lot more understanding to probs. Shoot, I had my 360 for over a year before I got the RLD ... and didn't complain - just shipped my 360 to McAllen, Texas, waited a few weeks and started back playing. I have a Wii that I bought just to flip and ended up keeping it. It's fun - and I am getting more and more games for it.

The PS3 is just a console with a ton of excuses. All I see are fanboys touting how awesome this title and that one will be. All of their speculation - and analysts - are looking to the past to determine future success. That's ok to do - if the systems have the same features and the conditions are similar - like the PS2 coming out first, and locking in tons of exclusives. The early entry of the 360, and the insane, out of control success of the Wii have bashed those theories.

It seems that Sony is convincing folks it's the total package, but it's like a salesman selling someone a Ferrari, then adding crap that shoulda been there in the first place - and selling it to them and think they are supposed to be happy.

IMHO, the 20gb PS3 was fine by itself - and just think - it would have been $399 right now ... but no, Sony deleted that sku, and the 60gb sku. Nice work ...

(from a reformed Sony fanboy - and owner of a PS2 - and past owner of the original PS1 - opening weekend - two PSPs and one PS2 HDD)

i dont expect a $400 80g at all, thats why i said i half expect no-change and half expect $100 off both [$500 80G], but some people [not me until, like you say winter 08] seem to be expecting a $400 80g.

as for sales, 360 did near 3mil for last years Nov/Dec, so i expect similar sales [maybe a bit more], ps3 i expect maybe 2.5-3mil, and Wii 5-6 mill [could get 8 with enough supply, but it wont have that]

Will they really convince retailers to buy the like 5.5 million needed to get the number by then though? 

The PS3 launch was disappointing, like the the 360. But anyone who buys it now has a great selection of games, i'm tired of people saying the PS3 needs an awesome game. Warhawk is the best multiplayer experience i've ever had, Resistance is an overall great shooter, Ninja Gaiden Sigma is an awesome action game, Tekken 5: Ressurection is an amazing fighter (although I wish it did include the story mode), there are many great racers among, and I could go on. I bought mine about a month ago and have not had enough time to give half of those games a decent play through. I understand why people at launch were pissed, they had good reason to be. Now with the price drop and the ever improving selection of games, there is no reason to complain. Just my opinion, but many of my customers agree so... the 360 and PS3 are both worth having, I just can't justify the price of the 360 with all the problems it will give me. There are so many horror stories which I have heard and been witness to, I would eventually buy one if all the great 360 titles didn't release to the PC.

I suggested this to ioi a while back, and I still think it's a good idea. If its possible to project the number of units sold to retailers, the site could show the graphics this way:

with a little blurb at the bottom indicating that it is showing the number of sales to customers out of the number of sales to retail, or something like that. The projected number of units sold to retailers could be updated everytime something official is announced, and automatically accumulated at whatever the last known rate was. Anyway, just a suggestion. I think it would help clear up things to people not understand what is really tracked.

^ hmm the site does have static shipment numbers, but putting them on the weekly counter thing would mean the sold number would be higher than shipped except when financial reports are released.... i doubt ioi can get weekly shipment figures.

re-reading your post i'm guessing the "automatically accumulated" bit refers to having the shipment figures on a timer thing [like nexgenwars] which would be very innaccurate when updates are only every quarter. [shipments change all the time... like with the Wii]

Wow, I really like that... it would solve alot of issues. It wouldn't be a counter, maybe "(shipment number) as of Dec 07"

Somebody has told that this site undertracks the european numbers.

While i'm pretty much sure that it tracks western europe's numbers pretty good, i'm also sure that in eastern europe PS3 isn't selling all that good for 2 reasons only:

1. no modchip is available
2. new PES isn't out yet