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Forums - Sales Discussion - Why do people predict a massive boost for Sony and crushing defeat for MS?

Slimebeast on 30 April 2008

Because not everyone understands the 1337-ness that is XBOX.

Plus they are Phil Harrisons boyfriends.



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Viper1 on 30 April 2008

@The_God_of_War
Hype doesn't always equal sales as we've seen with many PS3 titles already so please don't use Internet hype as a gauge of potential sales for either console this year.

Also, the 10.4 million was LTD, not calendar year 2006.

@ChrisTheGreat
There are a few other European tracking firms such as MC-GfK and Dataspelsbranschen.

@Taxman
The PS2 got a 20 million unit head start over the GC and Xbox. FFX, GT3: A-Spec, MGS:2 all released either before or at the launch of the other two consoles. Basically put, the GC and Xbox never had a chance against such odds.



The rEVOLution is not being televised

Bitmap Frogs on 30 April 2008

Because they don't understand this business.

 Console ecosystems are totally reset every 6 years so you can't bank as much on previous work as you can on other markets. The competition is ruthless and bad decisions kill companies in few years. 





Current-gen game collection uploaded on the profile, full of win and good games; also most of my PC games. Lucasfilm Games/LucasArts 1982-2008 (Requiescat In Pace).

ChrisTheGreat on 30 April 2008

I think we need to say something about these sales figures. Yes for the last 3 or 4 months the PS3 has out sold the 360 by a wopping 10 - 15 % . I think that is mainly due to the Blu-ray factor. Also to some the PS3 is still new and people have only just saved enought to buy one, not every one can spend £350 on a games machine.

Also the 10 - 15% difference is probably a error in the stats as they are not going to be perfect and a 10 -15 % error I feel is good for these fugure it is probably around 30% wrong which could make the 360 the highest sales or put the PS3 more ahead.

@viper1 Where are these EU sales figures from sony as I have looked and there is no way of splitting the Playstation brand from the PS3 sales in EU. Which is away of hidding the PS3 sales figures.

Anyway it is all about making money for the two companies, MS are doing well and Sony seem to be struggling with the PS3. Yet again sony has come out and said it will break even with the PS3, what they actualy said was they would break even with the PS brand which to be honest they should....



Viper1 on 30 April 2008

Sony stopped offering a territorial breakdown for sales starting FY 2008 so we can't even get numbers form Sony themselves. I'm not familiar with how those other firms present their numbers so I can't tell you how helpful they'll be.

VGC could very well be off for its Euro numbers but they are better than no numbers at all so we just have to accept their validity based on how valid their numbers are elsewhere.



The rEVOLution is not being televised

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ChrisTheGreat on 30 April 2008

But that statment makes this hole post Irrelevant as we could be disscusing something that is not really happening. I may make a post saying "Why do people predict a massive boost for Microsoft and crushing defeat for the Delay Station?" As it could be the reall truth. That is what I see around me, there are loads of copies of GTA4 for the PS3 in the stores and no copies of GTA4 for 360. I think it is a PR thing by Sony again to make us think that there are more PS3 selling. look at all the web stuff around the last NPD report, all you heard was how much will sony out sell the 360 and in the end it didn't. I would love to know the real story I think that would be very interesting reading... :)



jpain333 on 30 April 2008
mztazmz said:
It's real simple, 360 is already over the hill. halo 3 is the biggest selling game the 360 has and ever will have. There are no other exclusives on the horizon that will sell millions of copies. Gears 2 will be a hit, but not as big as Gears 1(it had pretty much no competition when it came out). Ninja Gaiden 2 will do good as will Fable 2, but what else is there?

PS3 on the other hand hasn't even had one major hit released yet. GT Prologue is a good start, buts it's not the full game and GT5 will crush it.

MGS4 will be the first exclusive hit with a history of massive sales. It will sell millions of copies and push console sales(especially with the bundle). Then you have 2 Final Fantasy exclusives that are shaping up nicely. Killzone 2 could also be a huge hit if the gameplay and story are on par with the amazing graphics.

PS3 has been outselling the 360 for weeks in all 3 regions with no big exclusive games. When the big titles hit, it'll leave 360 in the dust.

FYI to the topic creator, there's a good chance ME2 will be multiplat, Bioshock2 will be multiplat, and wtf is halo4???
Stop acting like the 360 is the first xbox where the halos were the only hugh sellers, look at COD4, that still has much much stronger legs, GTA4 has the potential to sell past halo3 at the end of this gen, and don't doubt gears of war 2 just yet...am buying that and have yet to play the first one.....your just acting like a hater dreaming for 360s downfall 

 



Viper1 on 30 April 2008
ChrisTheGreat said:
But that statment makes this hole post Irrelevant as we could be disscusing something that is not really happening. I may make a post saying "Why do people predict a massive boost for Microsoft and crushing defeat for the Delay Station?" As it could be the reall truth. That is what I see around me, there are loads of copies of GTA4 for the PS3 in the stores and no copies of GTA4 for 360. I think it is a PR thing by Sony again to make us think that there are more PS3 selling. look at all the web stuff around the last NPD report, all you heard was how much will sony out sell the 360 and in the end it didn't. I would love to know the real story I think that would be very interesting reading... :)

 But VGC's Euro numbers aren't influenced by the hype machine.   The numbers are actual sales totals from sampled retail chains which I'll take as far more valid than meida hype as a sales gauge.



The rEVOLution is not being televised

dbot on 30 April 2008
starcraft said:

From time to time, posters (and indeed some 'reputable' analysts) predict that the PS3 will experience a large increase in sales to the point that it is believed the console will shift 15-20 million consoles a year for the next few years.

Equally, the opposite is often predicted for the Xbox 360, with people believing the console will effectively disappear off the map after 2008.  

I personally do not believe either console is going anywhere anytime soon.  I think the PS3 will see a marginal increase in sales over the coming two years, and the 360 a marginal decline over the coming two years.  I think they will each hold staedy levels for one year after that, before beginning a steep decline in the face of new consoles.

What makes people believe either of the first two scenarios?

The PS3 has some guarenteed sales in FFXIII and GT5, but the likelihood these games will provide PS2-like boosts is small, given both Japan and Europe are predominately one-console continents.  The Wii has already shown it will be the nearest thing to the PS2 of this generation.

As for the Xbox 360?  The reason that the Xbox died is Microsoft stopped supporting it and the games dried up.  But as of now, we have a year-on-year increase in sales, a strong line-up of diverse exclusives and every indication the games will keep coming for at least two years (ME2, Bioshock 2, Halo 4, PD2 etc...).

Does anyone have any idea why either of these predictions is made, and what reasonable grounds there may be to make them? 

 

Maybe you should post this question on Bloomberg?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aPVnmYFcu28g&refer=japan

"Global Xbox 360 shipments will probably fall 40 percent to 9.1 million units in the year ending in March 2009 after peaking during the previous 12-month period, Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd. estimated last month. Shipments of Sony's PlayStation 3 will jump 47 percent to 14 million units, while those of Nintendo's Wii may rise 26 percent to 24 million, according to Daiwa. "

 

 



Thanks for the input, Jeff.

 

 

ChrisTheGreat on 30 April 2008

@Viper1
You say that but i have lived in spain and Italy and they don't have the big chains Like Curry's and largs supermarkerts. They have lots of indipenedent stores. So getting the right numbers is impossible. And the counties without a second source of stats are the ones where the PS3 sales difference is the most, thats all I am saying. I think for UK, Germany and US the sales are probably within 10 - 15 %, the rest could be anywere... and that puts a big ? over the numbers. Don't you think it is funny that Sony don't give a EU breakdown, if it was my company I would love to show MS that I was selling more than them, but they don't. That just makes me wonder.