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Global Hardware 6 July 2019

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siebensus4 said:
I think it's already safe to say that the XBox All Digital Edition had no sustained impact. I wonder how this influences Microsoft's next gen plans.

The biggest issue with the All Digital Edition is the price. You could find standard Xbox One S bundles for the same price, if not less at launch. It should have launched at a minimum $50 less than it did. Maybe even $100 less. While Microsoft would likely lose money for each one sold, they would make it up as all games sold for it would be digital. 



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Barkley said:

"Next year, with the PS5 reveal, I expect the sales to come crashing down to about 6-7M" - The PS3 sold 8.2m in 2013, the PS4 was revealed February 2013... there's no way the PS4 crashes down to 6-7m and sells even worse than the ps3 did in this time frame.

Sony's forecast is 16m shipped this fiscal year. Which would mean 112.8m shipped by March 31st 2020?

For them to ship less than 120m would be insane.

FY 2013/2014 - 7.5m
FY 2014/2015 - 14.8m
FY 2015/2016 - 17.7m
FY 2016/2017 -  20m
FY 2017/2018 - 19m
FY 2018/2019 - 17.8m
FY 2019/2020 - 16m       (FORECAST)

So that puts them up to 112.8m, even if they don't quite meet the forecast this year they'll still be on track for 120m+ over the next few years.

The PS3 didn't stop production/shipments until May 2017, 3 and a half years after the PS4 released, and that was a much less successful console.

FY 2020/2021 - 8m
FY 2021/2022 - 3.5m
FY 2022/2023 - 1.5m

Conservative estimate, would put PS4 at 125.8m lifetime.

Well said.

Last edited by CGI-Quality - on 20 July 2019

                                                                                                                                            

Mbolibombo said:

130M might be achievable, but as a floor? that's bold. Another 32M consoles shipped is still a lot of consoles.. my guess would be somewhere in the 120-130M range

I don't think it's that bold.

PS4 has been $300 for a long time, I think a drop to $250 then later $200 would bring in a large influx of low budget buyers, and that with PS5 looking to be a $500 proposition, a cheap $200 alternative will do well into 2021 and even 2022 much like PS2 did into 2006 and beyond.



curl-6 said:
Mbolibombo said:

130M might be achievable, but as a floor? that's bold. Another 32M consoles shipped is still a lot of consoles.. my guess would be somewhere in the 120-130M range

I don't think it's that bold.

PS4 has been $300 for a long time, I think a drop to $250 then later $200 would bring in a large influx of low budget buyers, and that with PS5 looking to be a $500 proposition, a cheap $200 alternative will do well into 2021 and even 2022 much like PS2 did into 2006 and beyond.

There's also market saturation. The writings are on the wall, PS4 has dropped off significantly this year and I dont think it has much to do with price. I dont think priced down revisions will do as much as some expect. It's definately going to help but we're still looking at 32M+ for hardware, the console market is not the same now as it was when the PS2 was the evergreen console. Though one must consider that it's possible that PS5 takes the early route of PS3 and if that was to happen.. it would definately help the PS4's legs. I dont think Sony will make that mistake again though.



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Mbolibombo said:
curl-6 said:

I don't think it's that bold.

PS4 has been $300 for a long time, I think a drop to $250 then later $200 would bring in a large influx of low budget buyers, and that with PS5 looking to be a $500 proposition, a cheap $200 alternative will do well into 2021 and even 2022 much like PS2 did into 2006 and beyond.

There's also market saturation. The writings are on the wall, PS4 has dropped off significantly this year and I dont think it has much to do with price. I dont think priced down revisions will do as much as some expect. It's definately going to help but we're still looking at 32M+ for hardware, the console market is not the same now as it was when the PS2 was the evergreen console. Though one must consider that it's possible that PS5 takes the early route of PS3 and if that was to happen.. it would definately help the PS4's legs. I dont think Sony will make that mistake again though.

Going by the "PS4/XBO/NS - 2018 vs 2019" thread, you notice that the PS4 is down ~25% vs 2018.

"I dont think it has much to do with price." -Mboli

Then why did the amazon prime day price drops have such a huge effect on sales? in the US.
Theres clearly still demand, if the price is right. There was like 5-6 sku's of PS4's ahead of the highest ranked Switch sku.
price still plays a huge part.

So I think its too early to say, demand is just down 25% and theres nothing sony can do about it, so this year will only be a ~14m year.

If they do a perm price drop, I'm pretty sure they can get to 16m+ sales.



JRPGfan said:
Mbolibombo said:

There's also market saturation. The writings are on the wall, PS4 has dropped off significantly this year and I dont think it has much to do with price. I dont think priced down revisions will do as much as some expect. It's definately going to help but we're still looking at 32M+ for hardware, the console market is not the same now as it was when the PS2 was the evergreen console. Though one must consider that it's possible that PS5 takes the early route of PS3 and if that was to happen.. it would definately help the PS4's legs. I dont think Sony will make that mistake again though.

Going by the "PS4/XBO/NS - 2018 vs 2019" thread, you notice that the PS4 is down ~25% vs 2018.

"I dont think it has much to do with price." -Mboli

Then why did the amazon prime day price drops have such a huge effect on sales? in the US.
Theres clearly still demand, if the price is right. There was like 5-6 sku's of PS4's ahead of the highest ranked Switch sku.
price still plays a huge part.

So I think its too early to say, demand is just down 25% and theres nothing sony can do about it, so this year will only be a ~14m year.

If they do a perm price drop, I'm pretty sure they can get to 16m+ sales.

But only if the pricedrop is $100, $50 won't cut it.

And even then, taking just Prime day (which is a one day promotion) for everyday sales is pretty dangerous. Sure, the first days, demand will be very high, and the baseline will definitely be higher afterwards, but the question is by how much. I expect a worldwide $50 pricecut to just be enough for a 30-40k increase in the baseline now after a spike in the first weeks. That wouldn't be enough to even reach last year's sales anymore.

A $100 pricecut of $199 Superslim could do it, here I do expect a rise in the baseline of 60-90k. But every day without any cut or superslim makes it just more and more difficult to achieve.



Mbolibombo said:
curl-6 said:

I don't think it's that bold.

PS4 has been $300 for a long time, I think a drop to $250 then later $200 would bring in a large influx of low budget buyers, and that with PS5 looking to be a $500 proposition, a cheap $200 alternative will do well into 2021 and even 2022 much like PS2 did into 2006 and beyond.

There's also market saturation. The writings are on the wall, PS4 has dropped off significantly this year and I dont think it has much to do with price. I dont think priced down revisions will do as much as some expect. It's definately going to help but we're still looking at 32M+ for hardware, the console market is not the same now as it was when the PS2 was the evergreen console. Though one must consider that it's possible that PS5 takes the early route of PS3 and if that was to happen.. it would definately help the PS4's legs. I dont think Sony will make that mistake again though.

The reason for the drop off? Games. No god of war, no monster hunter.both sold a lot of consoles.



Predictions (Made July 2019)

LTD: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m       2019 : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m        2020: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)


Mbolibombo said:
curl-6 said:

I don't think it's that bold.

PS4 has been $300 for a long time, I think a drop to $250 then later $200 would bring in a large influx of low budget buyers, and that with PS5 looking to be a $500 proposition, a cheap $200 alternative will do well into 2021 and even 2022 much like PS2 did into 2006 and beyond.

There's also market saturation. The writings are on the wall, PS4 has dropped off significantly this year and I dont think it has much to do with price. I dont think priced down revisions will do as much as some expect. It's definately going to help but we're still looking at 32M+ for hardware, the console market is not the same now as it was when the PS2 was the evergreen console. Though one must consider that it's possible that PS5 takes the early route of PS3 and if that was to happen.. it would definately help the PS4's legs. I dont think Sony will make that mistake again though.

I don't think market saturation will be a limiting factor here as once you drop to $250 and especially $200 you reach whole new segments of the market for whom $300 was too much. I think people are really underestimating how much a pricecut will do for PS4.

And while I don't expect PS5 to repeat PS3's mistakes, I think it's likely to be $500 which would leave room for PS4 to coexist for the first few years of the PS5 as an affordable $200 entry level system.

I find it hard to see it doing less than 130 million lifetime when its nearing 100 million while still selling decently at $300.



curl-6 said:

I don't think market saturation will be a limiting factor here as once you drop to $250 and especially $200 you reach whole new segments of the market for whom $300 was too much. I think people are really underestimating how much a pricecut will do for PS4.

And while I don't expect PS5 to repeat PS3's mistakes, I think it's likely to be $500 which would leave room for PS4 to coexist for the first few years of the PS5 as an affordable $200 entry level system.

I find it hard to see it doing less than 130 million lifetime when its nearing 100 million while still selling decently at $300.

The PS4 has been officially available for less than $300 on multiple occasions, including Black Friday deals that encompassed ~1m consoles per year in the USA alone. A significant chunk of the people who have been waiting for a cheaper PS4 has already been addressed, so a permanent price drop to $250 wouldn't have much of an impact anymore. An immediate drop from $300 to $200 is really farfetched because Sony insisted on $300 for so long.

Regardless of what the PS5 will cost, the market will be flooded with used PS4 consoles to put money towards PS5 purchases. That will limit the number of new PS4 consoles that can be sold after the PS5 has launched.

130m is definitely at the higher end of the range for PS4 lifetime sales, not the floor. The number of high profile releases has slowed down this year and 2020 isn't going to be better, plus 2020 will see the marketing focus shift to the PS5 during the holiday season.

Range for PS4 lifetime sales is 120-135m, because the current fiscal year can create quite a bit of swing. If it's 16m like projected, the range can be narrowed down to 125-135m next year. If it's worse, the ceiling will drop depending on how much worse. If it's better... I doubt that will be the case because in the current state a permanent price cut is already a requirement to get to 16m.



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