JRPGfan said:
Mbolibombo said:
There's also market saturation. The writings are on the wall, PS4 has dropped off significantly this year and I dont think it has much to do with price. I dont think priced down revisions will do as much as some expect. It's definately going to help but we're still looking at 32M+ for hardware, the console market is not the same now as it was when the PS2 was the evergreen console. Though one must consider that it's possible that PS5 takes the early route of PS3 and if that was to happen.. it would definately help the PS4's legs. I dont think Sony will make that mistake again though.
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Going by the "PS4/XBO/NS - 2018 vs 2019" thread, you notice that the PS4 is down ~25% vs 2018.
"I dont think it has much to do with price." -Mboli
Then why did the amazon prime day price drops have such a huge effect on sales? in the US. Theres clearly still demand, if the price is right. There was like 5-6 sku's of PS4's ahead of the highest ranked Switch sku. price still plays a huge part.
So I think its too early to say, demand is just down 25% and theres nothing sony can do about it, so this year will only be a ~14m year.
If they do a perm price drop, I'm pretty sure they can get to 16m+ sales.
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That's always the case when there are sales, people jump on it - People buy stuff on days like prime day, black friday because they are promoted. If the price drops to 200$ - It's gonna stop the bleeding for a while, possibly even increase in the short term but soon people will wait for another drop and that wont happen. It's down 25% over the year, but it's escalated quickly over the last few months. It hasnt been a 25% down every month but rather much lower from the start and increasingly as of late. If Sony intends to sell 16M consoles this year, something needs to happen soon and while I expect a drop to happen closer to the holiday either via a super slim or just a pricecut it needs to make up a lot of ground
Barkley said:
Mbolibombo said:
There's also market saturation. The writings are on the wall, PS4 has dropped off significantly this year and I dont think it has much to do with price. I dont think priced down revisions will do as much as some expect. It's definately going to help but we're still looking at 32M+ for hardware, the console market is not the same now as it was when the PS2 was the evergreen console. Though one must consider that it's possible that PS5 takes the early route of PS3 and if that was to happen.. it would definately help the PS4's legs. I dont think Sony will make that mistake again though.
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The reason for the drop off? Games. No god of war, no monster hunter.both sold a lot of consoles.
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We've seen a lot of high profile games this year and many of them are selling the best in franchise history including KH3 and MK11 is closing in on the record... Days gone is the best selling game of Bend studios, it's the best launch in the UK this year while coming close to both Spiderman and God of War in sales. Other high profile games include Division 2, Sekiro. There's been good games this year. Just not many exclusives.. but we know Xbox aint stealing any sales from the PS4 at least :P
I do however people underestimates how much of an impact Fortnite had on PS4 sales last year. It was a huge factor to how well the PS4 performed last year. That is the biggest game from last year and we have nothing with similar impact this year so I will give you that.
curl-6 said:
Mbolibombo said:
There's also market saturation. The writings are on the wall, PS4 has dropped off significantly this year and I dont think it has much to do with price. I dont think priced down revisions will do as much as some expect. It's definately going to help but we're still looking at 32M+ for hardware, the console market is not the same now as it was when the PS2 was the evergreen console. Though one must consider that it's possible that PS5 takes the early route of PS3 and if that was to happen.. it would definately help the PS4's legs. I dont think Sony will make that mistake again though.
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I don't think market saturation will be a limiting factor here as once you drop to $250 and especially $200 you reach whole new segments of the market for whom $300 was too much. I think people are really underestimating how much a pricecut will do for PS4.
And while I don't expect PS5 to repeat PS3's mistakes, I think it's likely to be $500 which would leave room for PS4 to coexist for the first few years of the PS5 as an affordable $200 entry level system.
I find it hard to see it doing less than 130 million lifetime when its nearing 100 million while still selling decently at $300.
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A drop will have some impact, but since it's been at that price on occasions before I dont think it will make wonders for it in the longterm. But we'll see.. i have my doubts.