Quantcast
Predictions: Media Create - Week 49 - Smash Release, PS4 deal

Forums - Sales Discussion - Predictions: Media Create - Week 49 - Smash Release, PS4 deal

Alright guys. In roughly 7 days we get the MC weekly with Smash.

Time to trow down some predictions!

1. Predict Smash first week sales
2. Predict Switch hardware sales.

3. Predict PS4 hardware sales.
4. Predict Just Cause 4 PS4 first week sales.

You don't have to predict all of themand can just predict what you feel comfortable with.
But also feel free to predict even more than that.

Here some additional insight that may (or may not) be useful:

Smash is tracking pretty well with over 900 preorder points on COMG, making it the second biggest Switch game on there with a shot at overtaking Splatoon 2 for the crown.
COMG ratio is a bit weird these days so it could be between 1:700 to 1:2500.
Recent Switch games have had a trend towards 1:2000 but none of those were remotely as big as Smash so probably not a good example.

Switch hardware is widely available, only the budled (Smash, SMP) stock has gotten a bit low.
It would seem that Smash has over 1.5M shipped copys for its launch.
Both those things were said by Chris1964 on Era. How much you put faith in his words is on you.

PS4 is getting a deal in Japan. Console is 5000 yen off (~$45) and comes with two free games.
Just Cause 4 has not been doing well on COMG or on amazon and initial reactions were pretty bad.

____________________________________________________________________________________________

Predictions:



German YouTuber and Streamer:
StarCraft and Fallout 4 currently. Tu-Fr 18.00 CET

Me trying to write reviews:
Octopath Traveler

Amazon December 2018 thread

Around the Network
Smash - 1.35M
Switch - 280k

PS4 - 45k
Just Cause 4 - 8k

German YouTuber and Streamer:
StarCraft and Fallout 4 currently. Tu-Fr 18.00 CET

Me trying to write reviews:
Octopath Traveler

Amazon December 2018 thread

Smash: 1.68m
Switch:270k

Ps4: 40k
Just cause: 6k

And for fun...

X-box one hardware: 32

Optimistic version of my prediction.

Switch: 250,000
Smash: 1.2 Million

PS4: 37.000
Just Cause 4: 7,777

 

Switch 234k
Smash 1.71mil

 

Edit: hopefully we get 2mil+ ship+digital announcement fe



Around the Network
tbone51 said:

Switch 234k
Smash 1.71mil

Edit: hopefully we get 2mil+ ship+digital announcement fe

Didn't expect your numbers to be so tame. Now look at that SSBU number closely:

Switch - 320k
SSBU - 1.72m

PS4 - 55k
JC4 - 15k



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:
tbone51 said:

Switch 234k
Smash 1.71mil

Edit: hopefully we get 2mil+ ship+digital announcement fe

Didn't expect your numbers to be so tame. Now look at that SSBU number closely:

Switch - 320k
SSBU - 1.72m

PS4 - 55k
JC4 - 15k

 

Only thing is will bundle only count for a digital sale? Smash could do 1.3mil fw but digital will be far bigger than most nintendo games imo



Smash: 1.8 million. COMG ration will likely be between 1:1500 and 1:2500. Unless it's some kind of really low anomaly, that's where it'll be, and at 1:2000 that would put it at 1.8 million, not even all that outlandish.
Switch 300k. You gotta figure it's going to do better than Pokemon's week by a pretty good amount.
PS4 40k. A slight jump from the previous week as the holidays approach and the sales takes effect.
Just Cause 10k. I dunno. Can't be much higher, but even a decent COMG ratio would give it 10k.

tbone51 said:

Only thing is will bundle only count for a digital sale? Smash could do 1.3mil fw but digital will be far bigger than most nintendo games imo

As far as I know, Pokémon Let's Go bundles came with a digital copy and Media Create lists that game as including the included version.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Smash first week - 1.4 million
Switch sales - 270k
PS4 sales - 45k

部屋に100人がいたとして、99人があなたはダメというのに1人が認めてくれることがあったとする。

by L. GaGa