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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 46 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - November 12-18, 2018

NoCtiS_NoX said:

 

 
Miyamotoo said:

Of Course we can, if Switch had higher install base more Pokemon would be sold, simple as that, and Switch had lower install base ever on which some Pokemon game is launched, despite that around 13-14% (with digital sales) of all Switch user bought game in first 3 days of sales, that percent is higher than for same previous games. Also this is not brand new game but it is remake of Kanto. Splatoon 2 did sell 600k with lower install base, but point is that even Splatoon 2 would be sell more if install base was bigger in time when Splatoon 2 was launched.

I gave you clearly differences compared to previous Pokemon games that more or less definitely had effect on this Pokemon sales. Maybe you wouldn't, but for some people higher price point in combination of point that its not core Pokemon game definitely effect that some people didn't bought it on launch.

Probably they look sales just through install base, point that around 13-14% (with digital sales) of all Switch owners bough game in its first 3 days of sales is good result. In terms of the attach rate:

  • Pokemon Let's Go sold 664,198 copies (12% of Switch owners)
  • 2017’s Ultra Sun/Moon sold 1.2m copies (5% of 3DS owners)
  • 2016’s Sun/Moon sold 1.9m copies (8.6% of 3DS owners)
  • 2014’s Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire sold 1.5m copies (9.2% of 3DS owners)
  • 2013’s X/Y sold 2.1m copies (16% of 3DS owners)
IMO this are great sales numbers, but they are not great Pokemon sales numbers, but I do think they are good enough with all on mind (lowest install base on which some Pokemon games is launched, highest price point for any Pokemon game, and highest digital sales for any Pokemon game).
Saying all that, it will be interesting to see how this game will keep selling in following weeks, all points that will have strong sales because game have great WOM and people on first were reserved about this game.

 The difference with Splatoon 2 and Let's go situation is, it was hard to find a NSW on Splatoon's launch while it's widely available today.  Splatoon 2 manage to sell 600k on an install base of 1m and compare it to 600k on an install base of 5m. You really need to explain it better on why the install base limit the sale potential of Let's go? Because it won't add up. 

Also, I think you didn't notice that you just prove my point with your examples thank you.😉

But that doesnt go against what I said, if Switch install base for Splatoon2 launch was higher, Splatoon2 would also had even higher sales than it did, same like Pokemon. There is no need for explanation, we talking about very clear logic, higher install base means higher number of potential buyers for any game, that means higher sales in any case if we talk about same game and same platform, if Switch had lower install base than it did, lower sales would be for Pokemon, if it did had higher install base, higher sales would be for Pokemon, its simply as that.

I dont see how I prove your point, that list just shows that Pokemon Lets Go had good launch compared to its install base and very similar compared to other Pokemon games.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 25 November 2018

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I mean, third parties aren't going to all drop PS4 support immediately. That would be stupid and a waste of resources. But in Japan, everyone is going to go multiplayer, and when EVERYTHING goes multiplat that the Japanese audience cares about, PS4 sales are going to slow to a trickle eventually. And at THAT point is where some devs may want to transfer to exclusivity for potentially better licencing deals, less development time and such advantages that come by sticking to one system.



tbone51 said:
Amnesia said:

Just scroll down inside the spanish article and you see the numbers of the other big 3 of the Switch.

I know that US sucks in foreign languages but come on...

"Sumando las cuatro ediciones del juego, Pokémon Let's Go ha conseguido 64.000 unidades vendidas en sus primeros días en España, superando las 55.000 de Super Mario Odyssey, las 44.000 de Zelda: Breath of the Wild y las 36.000 de Mario Kart 8 Deluxe."

 

Farsala said:
Y'all should put your money where your mouth is and predict each week until the end of the year. Maybe I should start? brb

 

I was going to make a thread on this for everyone to predict the rest of the year (weekly in Japan)

You never made it so I will predict now. Would love to see some more predictions from other people though.

Switch

 Week 47: 140k

Week 48: 120k

Week 49: 310k

Week 50: 180k

Week 51: 290k

Week 52: 140k

Total: 1.18m



Farsala said:
tbone51 said:

 

 

I was going to make a thread on this for everyone to predict the rest of the year (weekly in Japan)

You never made it so I will predict now. Would love to see some more predictions from other people though.

Switch

 Week 47: 140k

Week 48: 120k

Week 49: 310k

Week 50: 180k

Week 51: 290k

Week 52: 140k

Total: 1.18m

Week 47-125k

Week 48-150k

Week 49-325k

Week 50-325k

Week 51-375k

Week 52-200k

Total-1.5m

YTD-3.75m



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

W47: 190k
W48: 200k
W49: 250k
W50: 400k
W51: 450k
W52: 200k
Total: 1.7m



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nero said:
W47: 190k

Expecting basically no drop in this week's MC numbers? Wow, that is quite bold.



Megiddo said:
nero said:
W47: 190k

Expecting basically no drop in this week's MC numbers? Wow, that is quite bold.

The momentum is there, Smash is around the corner. If it keeps the stock going I think they will mantain it. If not, as rumour has it that it's having shortages ala 2017, it might drop 



From what I've read on Era, only the Pokemon bundles are having shortages. The main Grey/Neon SKUs and Smash bundle has plenty of stock.



OTBWY said:

I mean, you can stop pretending that I said that all support would stop. Like I explained before, the amount of games (triple A) that will trickle onto the system will become less as a "gen" goes on. Why? Because as hardware progresses and games become bigger, more complex and ultimately more complex, more time and money will have to be put into it. As I said before too, Japan primarily develops games for the Japanese audience first, then ports it over. When the audience becomes less, what do you think they will invest in? A cheaper and less costly device? Or a expensive device that requires more work and time and might not have the Japanese audience? The truth is, Nintendo is going to be more and more dominant in Japan. And as time goes on, this upset will generate more exclusives that might not come to other platforms as fast. Because 1: the audiences interest and 2: the appeal and association of these platforms. And it doesn't really mean big games perse, maybe a very very early example of such game is Octopath Traveler. And let me remind you, I am talking about Japan and the Japanese oriented market only. What goes on outside of that market is completely different.

TBH you are making a lot of assumptions. Just being a weaker system doesn’t translate to ease of developments right away.

Just being a powerful machine doesn’t translate costly for them by default.

 

Why would we limit our discussion in Japan sales only? 

I can name you games that are doing great outside Japan. 

Cold Steel in Asia (China), Super Robot Wars in asia, Persona, Yakuza, Nier, Naruto, DragonBall, Final Fantasy, Monster Hunter World, Tekken, Resident evil, Nioh 

outside Japan. 

Multi-plat is the most viable option.

Why limit your sales on one System if you can sell more with PS-Ninty combo. 

 

You cited octopath but that is just one example of the few. 

 

I will asked you again, what games  are we talking about? Publishers?

Mnementh said:
NoCtiS_NoX said:

What's not traditional about MHW?

It's simplified and streamlined. I don't say that is bad, for more casual players it is actually a good thing. But there is also the more traditional core group of players like me, who wants to take more care, learn more about the monsters behaviour (for instance where it does flee to instead of using an instacheat showing you the direction), preparing for a hunt with careful consideration and so on. Actually - funny enough - the situation is comparable with Pokemon core and Pokemon Let's Go. Let's Go is great as a spinoff for more casual players and new players to the franchise. Still the core group of players remains and what's why it is great next year the core Pokemon drops. If Capcom does similar things - releasing MonHun World and classic MonHun in parallel, then this is great. If they drop one group of players like hot potatoes, then it is stupid. But well, Capcom does stupid regularly, so it is possible.

I see it as Traditional with improve mechanics. I don’t see it as casualized because I don’t consider it as a casual game. It’s still a hard game.

Just because it’s easier doesn’t mean it easy for the casual crowd to play. I think we just to agree to disagree then. 

 

And I see why they did it because it’s really easy to get lost on the areas especially with Coral Highlands



Miyamotoo said:

But that doesnt go against what I said, if Switch install base for Splatoon2 launch was higher, Splatoon2 would also had even higher sales than it did, same like Pokemon. There is no need for explanation, we talking about very clear logic, higher install base means higher number of potential buyers for any game, that means higher sales in any case if we talk about same game and same platform, if Switch had lower install base than it did, lower sales would be for Pokemon, if it did had higher install base, higher sales would be for Pokemon, its simply as that.

I dont see how I prove your point, that list just shows that Pokemon Lets Go had good launch compared to its install base and very similar compared to other Pokemon games.

It seems , I failed to explain it better.

What you fail to realize with comparison with Splatoon 2. It manage to sell 600k with 1m installbase. Yes you are correct that if the installbase is higher Splatoon 2 could have sold more than 600k so if we compare it directly with pokemon with 600k with 5m install base then Let’s go sales is not really that great because using your arguments Let’s go should have sold more. It’s on a higher installbase right? 

As for your examples yes, you didn’t notice you prove my point with it. Take a 2nd look with your examples. X&Y outsold S&M with less install base so using your logic. A higher installbase means higher sales but it didn’t happen with sun and moon.

 

hence proving my point that install base doesn’t really matter with Pokemon. 

 

 

This sucks. Posting in mobile is really a mess. :(