So, reports are in. The switch sold 1.88M units (actually shipped to retailers) in the period of April, May and June. Meanwhile, in the same period of time, the PS4 shipped 3.2 million consoles.

Now, Nintendo expects to sell 20M units this fiscal year?

and Sony expects to sell 17M units this fiscal year?

Either Nintendo is way too optimistic, and will end up with a lower-than-predicted sales-number which will most likely heavily impact their stock value. Or, Sony are way too pessimistic and want to low-ball their estimate and then exceed it handsomely.

Sources:

https://www.dualshockers.com/nintendo-shipped-19-67-million-switch-units-june-2018/

Nintendo lowballed FY 2017 and overshot their goal. If the same market analysts at Nintendo are making these predictions, I think they'll hit it. There's a lot we don't know about Nintendo's 2nd half of 2018 and first 3 months of 2019.

But I can see both ways, expecting 18 million more Switch units in 9 months is a bit strange. I don't know if they're giving too much credit to Lets Go or what. Analysts are expecting Switch to be the best selling device for the year so Nintendo isn't necessarily alone when they are making these predictions.

I doubted Nintendo the last time that they made the claim of 16M units shipped, and that didn't turn out well for me. I'm hopeful that they do but as of now, it's headache inducing for sure how they'll do it. Let's Go isn't even a real mainline Pokemon game...maybe that helps or hurts their bottom line.

I just came here expecting to see a thread like this.
I would say no way, but a lot of people here are very confident about it reaching 20 million and I think they understand more than me.

Wii in fiscal year Apr 09-Mar 10 is probably the best comparison.

Q1-2.23
Q2-3.52
Q3-11.31
Q4-3.48

It kinda just coasted with small-medium tier titles for most of the year and had two big things that pushed sales like crazy during the holidays.

1. Price cut in the last week of Sept.
2. New Super Mario Bros Wii in Nov.

Its similar to Switch this year in that its been coasting with some medium tier titles and is saving two big guns for the holidays, Pokemon & Smash Bros while likely also getting its first value bundles.

I dont think many people are saying its guaranteed, just that its possible.

If a conservative company like Nintendo is sticking with their '20m shipped' projection, then I believe them. The only way I'll stop believing in that number is if Nintendo themselves changes it.

It can easily make it this year. It just depends if Nintendo wants to make the necessary sacrifices. Sacrifices like a price cut, or even better price cut with a hefty bundle. They might just coast by with just a value bundle, but that is still a small sacrifice.

Still other quarters for it to make up the difference I guess?

I don't think they will. However you can't judge a FY's sales based on this quarter alone, which is usually the lowest selling quarter of the year. Nintendo were obviously banking on labo to help the switch keep its momentum but that didn't pan out. Considering they still have the 20 forecast then they are relying on Pokémon and smash and their continued legs through Q4. And of course a price cut.

I've probably asked this many times already. But do we have any updates on the Switch China Release?