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So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

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Amnesia said:
colafitte said:

I must still live in another dimension regarding this topic, seriously. How is going to reach 20M SHIPPED by March if Switch is going to end SELLING around 16-16'5M in 2018 ?(is around 13M with 3 weeks left to end the year). By Q3 official numbers, Swith should be around 32M SHIPPED, so add another 2M, 3M max for Q4 and you have 35M at most and 34M at worst. To reach 20M shipped they need to be close to 38M by March end. In other words...is not happening.

This is precisely why me and a few others have invested in shares...It is because most of people don't see it happening.

Consider also that a 19M would only mean a miss by 5%, which should be considered as a victory as well.

Is not reaching 19M either....

Look, Switch is having a tremendous Q3, as expected by most, but the problem was the pace for the rest of the year. Switch needed 15M shipped consoles in Q3+Q4 and that's something that only prime Wii or prime PS2 were able to do. 

Switch is going to ship around 9-10M in Q3 and around 3-2M (depending on how much ended Q3), for a total of 12-13M in those quarters, and around 17-18M by March. Still an impressive number for a second year home console. Is just that 20M number was nuts from the begining.



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I expect 11-11,5M for Q3 and 3,5-4M for Q4.
Don't worry we will have our answer in 28 days :)



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Amnesia said:
I expect 11-11,5M for Q3 and 3,5-4M for Q4.
Don't worry we will have our answer in 28 days :)

So, how much do you expect Switch being SOLD to consumers by the end of the year then? (i mean end of 2018, not FY). What do you expect VGC will show when they have all 2018 data, even after adjustements if needed?



It has been clear since the announcement of Pokémon and Super Smash Bros. bundles in September that Nintendo will prioritize profits over hardware unit sales this fiscal years. Nintendo should comfortably meet and exceed their forecasts for profits and software sales, so falling a bit short on hardware sales isn't going to be a big deal. And they will fall short, because Switch isn't looking like it will ship 11.5m and 3.5m in the final two quarters.

We are still waiting for a lot of sales data from North America and Europe, but holiday sales have been strong across the globe, so shipments for Q3 of this fiscal year should be 10m+. Q4 shouldn't have a problem to at least match the previous year, because Pokémon and SSB will still be fresh and NSMBU Deluxe releases in January; it's reasonable to expect 3m+ for the quarter, bringing the total to a minimum of 18m. Said 18m will put Switch ahead of PS4 once again.

First full fiscal year:
PS4 - 14.8m
Switch - 15.05m

Second full fiscal year:
PS4 - 17.7m ($50 price cut)
Switch - 18m+

Realistically, the worst case for Switch is that it only matches the PS4 and it does that without a price cut.

Considering that Switch won't fall far short of the forecast, a price cut in October to $250/€250/25k yen would have certainly made 20m attainable. But missing that target isn't a serious cause for concern when full context is being applied.



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RolStoppable said:
It has been clear since the announcement of Pokémon and Super Smash Bros. bundles in September that Nintendo will prioritize profits over hardware unit sales this fiscal years. Nintendo should comfortably meet and exceed their forecasts for profits and software sales, so falling a bit short on hardware sales isn't going to be a big deal. And they will fall short, because Switch isn't looking like it will ship 11.5m and 3.5m in the final two quarters.

We are still waiting for a lot of sales data from North America and Europe, but holiday sales have been strong across the globe, so shipments for Q3 of this fiscal year should be 10m+. Q4 shouldn't have a problem to at least match the previous year, because Pokémon and SSB will still be fresh and NSMBU Deluxe releases in January; it's reasonable to expect 3m+ for the quarter, bringing the total to a minimum of 18m. Said 18m will put Switch ahead of PS4 once again.

First full fiscal year:
PS4 - 14.8m
Switch - 15.05m

Second full fiscal year:
PS4 - 17.7m ($50 price cut)
Switch - 18m+

Realistically, the worst case for Switch is that it only matches the PS4 and it does that without a price cut.

Considering that Switch won't fall far short of the forecast, a price cut in October to $250/€250/25k yen would have certainly made 20m attainable. But missing that target isn't a serious cause for concern when full context is being applied.

This. I completely agree and i've been saying that for months. The moment Nintendo made an hybrid console it was obvious Nintendo abandoned the race for "unit sales" and instead entered the race for "profit sales" and this became more obvious after Nintendo announced their own Online paid service. That's why i not expecting Switch reaching Wii sales lifetime but still being the most succesful Nintendo ever thanks to 1st party sales and subcriptions for Online.

As for the rest. 18M+ is definitively possible, and it will be an enormous success because like you said, it will put ahead of PS4 in the same time period in shipment sales.

I still think Switch will fight to reach 17M shipped though.



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colafitte said:
Amnesia said:
I expect 11-11,5M for Q3 and 3,5-4M for Q4.
Don't worry we will have our answer in 28 days :)

So, how much do you expect Switch being SOLD to consumers by the end of the year then? (i mean end of 2018, not FY). What do you expect VGC will show when they have all 2018 data, even after adjustements if needed?

 

Why do you say end of the year and not end of the FY? When Nintendo said 20 million they meant FY not the end of 2018

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RolStoppable said:
It has been clear since the announcement of Pokémon and Super Smash Bros. bundles in September that Nintendo will prioritize profits over hardware unit sales this fiscal years. Nintendo should comfortably meet and exceed their forecasts for profits and software sales, so falling a bit short on hardware sales isn't going to be a big deal. And they will fall short, because Switch isn't looking like it will ship 11.5m and 3.5m in the final two quarters.

We are still waiting for a lot of sales data from North America and Europe, but holiday sales have been strong across the globe, so shipments for Q3 of this fiscal year should be 10m+. Q4 shouldn't have a problem to at least match the previous year, because Pokémon and SSB will still be fresh and NSMBU Deluxe releases in January; it's reasonable to expect 3m+ for the quarter, bringing the total to a minimum of 18m. Said 18m will put Switch ahead of PS4 once again.

First full fiscal year:
PS4 - 14.8m
Switch - 15.05m

Second full fiscal year:
PS4 - 17.7m ($50 price cut)
Switch - 18m+

Realistically, the worst case for Switch is that it only matches the PS4 and it does that without a price cut.

Considering that Switch won't fall far short of the forecast, a price cut in October to $250/€250/25k yen would have certainly made 20m attainable. But missing that target isn't a serious cause for concern when full context is being applied.

I can agree for the 11.5M in the 3rd quarter being probably a miss, but 3.5M in the last quarter doesn't seem out of reach at all to me. Switch shipped about 3M last year in that quarter, with some increased momentum through Smash & Pokemon plus some releases (NSMBUDx among others, and I expect Yoshi to release in March to keep it up), 3.5M doesn't seem out of reach at all to me for the 4th quarter.



Ashadelo said:
colafitte said:

So, how much do you expect Switch being SOLD to consumers by the end of the year then? (i mean end of 2018, not FY). What do you expect VGC will show when they have all 2018 data, even after adjustements if needed?

 

Why do you say end of the year and not end of the FY? When Nintendo said 20 million they meant FY not the end of 2018

The only reason is because he already stated how much Switch is going to ship in Q3 and to know both VGC and official Q3 from Nintendo numbers will only have to wait a few days instead of months, that's all.

If Switch is going to ship 11'5M in Q3 that will put Switch around 34'5M. Switch is according to VGC at 26'1M sold to consumers with 3 weeks left for the year. How much units are going to be on shelves then according to him??, is Switchi suddenly going to sell 2M per week the rest of the year or what?, are VGC numbers wrong then??



colafitte said:

This. I completely agree and i've been saying that for months. The moment Nintendo made an hybrid console it was obvious Nintendo abandoned the race for "unit sales" and instead entered the race for "profit sales" and this became more obvious after Nintendo announced their own Online paid service. That's why i not expecting Switch reaching Wii sales lifetime but still being the most succesful Nintendo ever thanks to 1st party sales and subcriptions for Online.

As for the rest. 18M+ is definitively possible, and it will be an enormous success because like you said, it will put ahead of PS4 in the same time period in shipment sales.

I still think Switch will fight to reach 17M shipped though.

That doesn't make sense, because Nintendo has definitively not given up on unit sales. The "sacrifice" they are making in unit sales this fiscal year will allow them to prolong the lifecycle of Switch, because they are pushing back price cuts and revisions to later dates. Nintendo is coming off the 3DS which had price cuts and revisions early; while that helped sales in the first half of the 3DS's lifecycle, it came at the expense of sales later in the lifecycle because the customers who wait for certain prices on the hardware were able to buy the console quite early.

Since so far Nintendo is doing things that will help Switch to have high yearly sales for a longer time, it's more than feasible to beat the Wii in the end, especially if they accomplish the goal of turning Switch into a one-per-person device as opposed to the one-per-household device it is right now.

The 3DS will have lifetime sales of ~75m, so Nintendo would have to begin to sabotage Switch in order to fall short of Wii sales.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Bofferbrauer2 said:
RolStoppable said:
It has been clear since the announcement of Pokémon and Super Smash Bros. bundles in September that Nintendo will prioritize profits over hardware unit sales this fiscal years. Nintendo should comfortably meet and exceed their forecasts for profits and software sales, so falling a bit short on hardware sales isn't going to be a big deal. And they will fall short, because Switch isn't looking like it will ship 11.5m and 3.5m in the final two quarters.

(...)

I can agree for the 11.5M in the 3rd quarter being probably a miss, but 3.5M in the last quarter doesn't seem out of reach at all to me. Switch shipped about 3M last year in that quarter, with some increased momentum through Smash & Pokemon plus some releases (NSMBUDx among others, and I expect Yoshi to release in March to keep it up), 3.5M doesn't seem out of reach at all to me for the 4th quarter.

That sentence is in the context of hitting 20m for the full fiscal year, so the point is that Switch isn't looking like it will 15m combined in the final two quarters. 11.5m and 3.5m is an example of a breakdown; I could have said 11m and 4m, or 10.5m and 4.5m. Any way you slice it, you'll end up with at least one value that seems unrealitistic to reach. I used the ambitious figure for the holiday quarter (I agree that 3.5m for Q4 isn't much of a stretch), because that's the more likely quarter to show a surprisingly impressive performance.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club