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Miyamotoo on 03 January 2019
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colafitte said:

I must still live in another dimension regarding this topic, seriously. How is going to reach 20M SHIPPED by March if Switch is going to end SELLING around 16-16'5M in 2018 ?(is around 13M with 3 weeks left to end the year). By Q3 official numbers, Swith should be around 32M SHIPPED, so add another 2M, 3M max for Q4 and you have 35M at most and 34M at worst. To reach 20M shipped they need to be close to 38M by March end. In other words...is not happening.

Yeah, you sound like you are from another dimension. :D

I mean just look last year Q3, in last Q3 Nintendo shipped 7.3m, not we seeing that both November and December are much stronger in sales than same months of last year, that automatically means much higher shipped numbers also, with that on mind, Q3 this year for Switch bare minimum will be 10m+. Also last year in Janaury-March period Switch shipped 3m, so I dont see why y mentione 2m when Q4 of this year coming after Pokemon, Smash Bros and NSMBU DX can only be stronger, so we talking about 3.5-4m shipped units for Q4 of this year. With all that on mind, around 19m is minimum that Switch will do, what is expected is around 11m for Q3 and 4m for Q4 and that would mean 20m, but you can bet that even Nintendo is short 1m> they could easily little more staff channels in order to meet goal.

 

colafitte said:
RolStoppable said:

That doesn't make sense, because Nintendo has definitively not given up on unit sales. The "sacrifice" they are making in unit sales this fiscal year will allow them to prolong the lifecycle of Switch, because they are pushing back price cuts and revisions to later dates. Nintendo is coming off the 3DS which had price cuts and revisions early; while that helped sales in the first half of the 3DS's lifecycle, it came at the expense of sales later in the lifecycle because the customers who wait for certain prices on the hardware were able to buy the console quite early.

Since so far Nintendo is doing things that will help Switch to have high yearly sales for a longer time, it's more than feasible to beat the Wii in the end, especially if they accomplish the goal of turning Switch into a one-per-person device as opposed to the one-per-household device it is right now.

The 3DS will have lifetime sales of ~75m, so Nintendo would have to begin to sabotage Switch in order to fall short of Wii sales.

Well, that won't make sense to you then, for me it makes all the sense of the world. I already said in other thread what i expect from Switch. No Nintendo console (handheld or home console) has mantained the sales of their 2nd or 3rd years or sales. Switch has not proved anything different wll happen. 17M FY2018, 17-18M FY 2019, 12-13M FY2020, 10M FY 2021, 8M FY2022......, so around 82-84M shipped at most by then. By end of 2022, Switch will have its succesor already announced and in 2023 Switch will drop a lot. So around 86-87M shipped at most lifetime.

I know some people won't agree with me, and that's  completely fine, but this is my honest prediction.

In reality we will have something like this, around 20m FY 2018, 23-25m FY 2019.