And it will still be leading after mid april 2020, which gives it the advantage for the forseeable future.

Switch is selling faster than PS4, the only question is will Switch have PS4's legs. PS4 isn't the second best selling console of all time (with plenty of room to run still) because it had monster years, but it had a bunch of very good but not mind blowing years. It never came close to the Wii's top two years, and the Switch this year (and almost certainly at least next year) will likely outdo PS4's best year, but will the Switch sell really well for 5 years like the PS4 did? That's the question. Will the Switch have a couple monster years in 2019/2020 and then start dropping? Or will it still be selling 17-20 million through 2021/2022? My gut says it'll at least be in that range still in 2021, not sure about 2022 though.

I think PS4 is gonna sell less than I thought earlier in the year. I was thinking 130-135 million but with how it's closing out the year a lot weaker than I thought it would, seeing that marketability disappearing already a year from launch of the new system, I think 125 million at most is more likely. Switch I think will be over 110 million for sure, could go up to 120 mil which isn't far from where PS4 will likely end so I'd say there is a small chance Switch ends up selling more, though probably finishing 5 or so million less than PS4 is likely. Maybe something like PS4 123 million, Switch 117 million.

Switch has a monopoly on one half of the market though that market as units go is 91m units between the Vita and 3DS and counting even with overlap that should be a good 85m or so users so it's total will come down to how many console only users it snatches from the other side of the market it's operating on different factors to any prior platform before it due to being in two branches of the same market. Selling well for 5 years won't be much of an issue for it the platform likely will be around for as long as the 3DS has been around I can see a successor even arriving in its 7th year as the hold on half the market offsets certain factors other platforms are more pressured by.

Those number don't add up. So far the switch is following a similar sales curve compared to the ps4, only it's selling more. It will likely peak in 2020 and decline a little in 2021 but it's peak will be so high that the year after should still be over 20m. At that point the switch will be at around 100m. It will keep dropping in the following years, ending it's life at 125-130m.

I don't see these ps4 legs you're talking about. It had it's peak in 2017, declined a little last year, moderately this year and will continue declining next year. That's neither great or bad legs, just standard. If it drops 40% in 2020, 50-60% in 2021 and some more later, it's gonna end a little under 120m. If the drops are harsher, it could end at a little over 115m.

Still too early to tell, 2021 will give us a better idea

That's a bit extreme, you think 2019, 2020 & 2021 will each be over 20 million? I could see next year selling similar to this year but 2021 will likely see a moderate decline.

I can't see a scenario where the switch's 2020 isn't considerably above 2019. Why would you think it will sell similar numbers?

Well it's hard to make a definitive prediction one way or another since we know so little about what they have in store for next year outside of Animal Crossing (which will be huge) but what other big hitters are planned? With they have any more revisions release? With there be an official price cut? Will they be aggressive with things like bundles & discounts over the holidays?

Without knowing any of these things it's kind of silly to expect a big increase or big decrease in sales so at the moment I'm going with being up/down within 10% of this year so 18-22 million.

While we don't know what exactly nintendo will do, it's basically impossible for sales to drop next year. We know of a few major games that are releasing to keep the audience interested and at this point a price cut is extremely likely. The best case scenario is that nintendo cuts the price to $249 in the first half of the year and also phases out the lite for a real switch lite that docks and includes a dock for $199. But even if just the regular model gets a cut, it would already guarantee huge sales. They could save a price cut to $199 and $149 respectively for late 2021 or early 2022.

Impossible is quite the hyperbole.

No, we dont know about a few major games, we know of 1 which is Animal Crossing. The other announced games are either smaller titles (Tokyo Mirage Sessions, Xenoblade HD, Bravely Default) or have no confirmed release window (BotW 2, Metroid, Bayonetta).

Phasing out Lite makes absolutely no sense, it just came out 3 months ago so what you are proposing is nothing more than a pipe dream rather than an actual prediction.

Nintendo can be a very conservative company when it comes to price cuts, it's just as likely that they completely skip out on a price cut next year because they view the hybrid as the premium sku and Lite as the affordable, entry level sku similar to how none of the 3D models got price cuts after 2DS released.

On top of that Nintendo usually goes with added value bundles before going with price cuts, Switch has yet to have a pack in title outside of holiday deals so packing in a game rather than a price cut is something they could very likely do.

If the lineup is stacked and we get a price cut than I expect to see next year be up YoY.

If the lineup is lacking and we get no price cut than I expect to see next year down YoY.

I personally expect something in the middle, a solid lineup with added value bundles leading to sales being roughly flat YoY.