Wyrdness on 22 December 2019
| Slownenberg said: Switch is selling faster than PS4, the only question is will Switch have PS4's legs. PS4 isn't the second best selling console of all time (with plenty of room to run still) because it had monster years, but it had a bunch of very good but not mind blowing years. It never came close to the Wii's top two years, and the Switch this year (and almost certainly at least next year) will likely outdo PS4's best year, but will the Switch sell really well for 5 years like the PS4 did? That's the question. Will the Switch have a couple monster years in 2019/2020 and then start dropping? Or will it still be selling 17-20 million through 2021/2022? My gut says it'll at least be in that range still in 2021, not sure about 2022 though. I think PS4 is gonna sell less than I thought earlier in the year. I was thinking 130-135 million but with how it's closing out the year a lot weaker than I thought it would, seeing that marketability disappearing already a year from launch of the new system, I think 125 million at most is more likely. Switch I think will be over 110 million for sure, could go up to 120 mil which isn't far from where PS4 will likely end so I'd say there is a small chance Switch ends up selling more, though probably finishing 5 or so million less than PS4 is likely. Maybe something like PS4 123 million, Switch 117 million. |
Switch has a monopoly on one half of the market though that market as units go is 91m units between the Vita and 3DS and counting even with overlap that should be a good 85m or so users so it's total will come down to how many console only users it snatches from the other side of the market it's operating on different factors to any prior platform before it due to being in two branches of the same market. Selling well for 5 years won't be much of an issue for it the platform likely will be around for as long as the 3DS has been around I can see a successor even arriving in its 7th year as the hold on half the market offsets certain factors other platforms are more pressured by.
