| Slownenberg said: Switch is selling faster than PS4, the only question is will Switch have PS4's legs. PS4 isn't the second best selling console of all time (with plenty of room to run still) because it had monster years, but it had a bunch of very good but not mind blowing years. It never came close to the Wii's top two years, and the Switch this year (and almost certainly at least next year) will likely outdo PS4's best year, but will the Switch sell really well for 5 years like the PS4 did? That's the question. Will the Switch have a couple monster years in 2019/2020 and then start dropping? Or will it still be selling 17-20 million through 2021/2022? My gut says it'll at least be in that range still in 2021, not sure about 2022 though. I think PS4 is gonna sell less than I thought earlier in the year. I was thinking 130-135 million but with how it's closing out the year a lot weaker than I thought it would, seeing that marketability disappearing already a year from launch of the new system, I think 125 million at most is more likely. Switch I think will be over 110 million for sure, could go up to 120 mil which isn't far from where PS4 will likely end so I'd say there is a small chance Switch ends up selling more, though probably finishing 5 or so million less than PS4 is likely. Maybe something like PS4 123 million, Switch 117 million. |
Those number don't add up. So far the switch is following a similar sales curve compared to the ps4, only it's selling more. It will likely peak in 2020 and decline a little in 2021 but it's peak will be so high that the year after should still be over 20m. At that point the switch will be at around 100m. It will keep dropping in the following years, ending it's life at 125-130m.
I don't see these ps4 legs you're talking about. It had it's peak in 2017, declined a little last year, moderately this year and will continue declining next year. That's neither great or bad legs, just standard. If it drops 40% in 2020, 50-60% in 2021 and some more later, it's gonna end a little under 120m. If the drops are harsher, it could end at a little over 115m.
