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Forums - Sales Discussion - Credit Suisse Lifts Nintendo Rating to Outperform, Predicts 130 Million Switch Units Sold by 2022

 

Do you think this will happen?

Yes 112 29.17%
 
No 189 49.22%
 
Not sure 60 15.63%
 
I will not make a prediction 23 5.99%
 
Total:384
zapo on 18 September 2017

this would be awesome but I keep thinking of ps4 and how hard it will be for Sony to reach that much



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Soundwave on 18 September 2017
pleaserecycle said:
Soundwave said:
Based on what we're at now, even with solid early success I would say this is a pretty overblown prediction.

If they make many models including basically a successor in 3-4 years that they sell concurrently with older models .... maaaaaaybe, but even then thy would need a ton of top tier third party support to even get close to 130 IMO.

Nintendo doesn't have enough top selling franchises, they'll already have used Zelda/Mario 3D/Mario Kart/Splatoon by year end, leaving Pokemon, Smash, and Animal Crossing really as their top tier selling IP for the rest of the generation. Successive sequels don't have the same impact as it generally just attracts the same audience over and over again.

Unlike Wii, the motion games on Switch like 1,2 Switch and ARMS are not taking off in anywhere close to the same fashion, so Switch is largely going to have to sell to traditional gamers and I dunno, 130 is a big ask.

I agree.  They're running out of flagship franchises within the first year and we still haven't seen solid third party support outside of ports and indie games.  

 

Mind you I expect the system to sell very well, but 130 is asking for a lot. I don't see PS4 getting to 130 either unless Sony extends its lifecycle to like 10 years.

Wii and DS had the massive benefit of being able to tap into casual gamers before Apple and Google came and cannibalized the market with a superior product for that demo. 

Switch doesn't really have that though, we've seen that ARMS and 1,2 Switch while selling "OK" are only doing that ... "OK" sales. These are no where near the break out type hits that Brain Training or Wii Sports exhibited even very early on largely because the market for that type of experience is owned by smart devices now. 



Jranation on 18 September 2017

This is something you find from a user at Vgchartz xD



Pocky Lover Boy! 

numberwang on 18 September 2017

2022 is too early but I expect 10 years lifespan, so > 100 mio is possible.



Paul on 18 September 2017
RolStoppable said:
StarDoor said:
So that's 130 million from Q1 2017 to Q4 2022, or 24 quarters.

For reference:

DS shipped 135.58 million during that time-frame (Q4 2004 to Q3 2010)
Wii shipped 97.18 million during that time-frame (Q4 2006 to Q3 2012)

Good research. Since the DS pulled it off with a worse first year than Switch will have, their prediction isn't as unreasonable as it seems at first glance.

Paul said:
I can see vgchartz regaining it's old glory through the next few years if this is true. All the old nintendo fan boys will come out of hiding to savour the salty tears of fanboy meltdowns.

I was in hiding for 5 years after the wii u debacle.

Welcome back, Paul. I've seen a couple others of your recent posts. Good to see you back.

And yes, the next few years will be glorious.

Been playing coc for nearly 3 years solid. Max th11 with so many hours of my life wasted. 



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StarDoor on 18 September 2017

As a follow-up to my previous "what did they sell in their first 24 quarters" post:

GB: 43.51 million (Q2 1989 to Q1 1995)
PS1: 75.92 million (Q4 1994 to Q3 2000)
PS2: 101.37 million (Q1 2000 to Q4 2005)
GBA: 78.86 million (Q1 2001 to Q4 2006)



Paul on 18 September 2017

Apple has sold about 300 million ipad in about 7 years. Nintendo has their work cut out for them.



DialgaMarine on 18 September 2017

Interesting. Since it's already tracking behind PS4, what does that mean for PS4?

I don't see Switch doing DS numbers, simply because DS-level of success for a portable simply don't exist outside of Japan. Being a hybrid console, Switch's success is going to be determined on which crowd buys it more; I personally think the majority of Switch are buying it as a home console.

I'm still thinking around 80M, lifetime.



0331 Happiness is a belt-fed weapon

StarDoor on 18 September 2017
DialgaMarine said:
Interesting. Since it's already tracking behind PS4, what does that mean for PS4?

I don't see Switch doing DS numbers, simply because DS-level of success for a portable simply don't exist outside of Japan. Being a hybrid console, Switch's success is going to be determined on which crowd buys it more; I personally think the majority of Switch are buying it as a home console.

I'm still thinking around 80M, lifetime.

You do realize that, as of two fiscal quarters, PS4 tracks ahead of every console ever, including PS2 and Nintendo DS? That's hardly a metric for gauging how well Switch will sell versus PS4 in the long run. PS4 had the absolute strongest start of any console, but it never quite reached the heights of PS2 or even PS1 peak sales (22.5 and 21.6 million in a year, respectively,) let alone the peaks of DS or Wii (31.2 and 26.0 million).

I'm not saying that Switch will do DS numbers, but judging its long-term potential based on PS4's launch sales is absurd.



TallSilhouette on 18 September 2017



I'm sure it'll do well over all, but really?