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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Switch will easily hit 10m at end of this year

Green098 on 26 July 2017
ArnoldRimmer said:

From what I get, most people over here are convinced that Nintendo are producing and shipping as many Switch units as they possible can, and that the only reason for Switch hardware sales not being even higher is that there is currently just no possible way for them to product and ship more units.

But if that's correct - why would Nintendo magically be able to suddenly produce and ship more units during holiday season?

If anything, I would rather expect manufacturing capacities to go down rather than up at year end, since every company wants to produce more units for the holiday season, so there is even much more demand for the rather fixed manufacturing capacities that companies like Foxconn can offer.

Because if they can produce almost 5 million over 4 months they should also be capable of producing another almost 5 million over 6 months, hence 10 million by the end of 2017.



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Miyamotoo on 26 July 2017
ArnoldRimmer said:
Miyamotoo said:

Switch sold 2.74m at launch in March, now we have official Nintendo numbers for first quarter (April-June) that saying that Switch sold 2m in 3 months and that puts Switch on 4.7m at end of June with huge supply problems. Nintendo said they will increase shipments from July and August, and further increase from fall. So in next quarter (July-September) Nintendo will ship at least around 2m consoles again, so that would put Switch around 7m right before holiday season, and in holiday season Switch will easily pass 3m consoles.

From what I get, most people over here are convinced that Nintendo are producing and shipping as many Switch units as they possible can, and that the only reason for Switch hardware sales not being even higher is that there is currently just no possible way for them to product and ship more units.

But if that's correct - why would Nintendo magically be able to suddenly produce and ship more units during holiday season?

If anything, I would rather expect manufacturing capacities to go down rather than up at year end, since every company wants to produce more units for the holiday season, so there is even much more demand for the rather fixed manufacturing capacities that companies like Foxconn can offer.

Because they said they will be able to produce more consoles form fall. Remember, we have infos before that Nintendo is battling with Apple for some parts, and that is reason why Nintendo cant produce much more consoles.



Mnementh on 26 July 2017
SegataSanshiro said:
Honestly feel by end of fiscal year it will have outsold the Wii U and possibly the Vita as well.

Yeah, I can see it as well, as long Nintendo produces enough.



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ArnoldRimmer on 26 July 2017
Green098 said:
ArnoldRimmer said:

From what I get, most people over here are convinced that Nintendo are producing and shipping as many Switch units as they possible can, and that the only reason for Switch hardware sales not being even higher is that there is currently just no possible way for them to product and ship more units.

But if that's correct - why would Nintendo magically be able to suddenly produce and ship more units during holiday season?

If anything, I would rather expect manufacturing capacities to go down rather than up at year end, since every company wants to produce more units for the holiday season, so there is even much more demand for the rather fixed manufacturing capacities that companies like Foxconn can offer.

Because if they can produce almost 5 million over 4 months they should also be capable of producing another almost 5 million over 6 months, hence 10 million by the end of 2017.

That doesn't make sense:

They didn't produce 5 million units in FOUR months, as the 2.7 million units they sold at launch in march obviously weren't produced in a single month, that number was rather the manufactured stock since whenever they started manufacturing the device.

As I get it, in the three months afterwards, they sold two million units, so their actual current manufacturing capacity should be close to (two million devices / three months).

Miyamotoo said:

Because they said they will be able to produce more consoles form fall. Remember, we have infos before that Nintendo is battling with Apple for some parts, and that is reason why Nintendo cant produce much more consoles.

That at least makes a little more sense, but I still think that doesn't really fully explain things. If the only reason that Nintendo can't manufacture more units is that they're battling with Apple for certain parts, why is that problem suddenly magically solved by fall? Does Apple suddenly stop manufacturing their devices by that time?

One might argue that Apple usually introduces their next iPhone revision by about that time, and will thus probably stop manufacturing the current revision soon - but how could Nintendo know that unlike the current revision, the next revision of the iPhone will not use the parts Nintendo is battling for with Apple?



Miyamotoo on 26 July 2017
ArnoldRimmer said:

Miyamotoo said:

Because they said they will be able to produce more consoles form fall. Remember, we have infos before that Nintendo is battling with Apple for some parts, and that is reason why Nintendo cant produce much more consoles.

That at least makes a little more sense, but I still think that doesn't really fully explain things. If the only reason that Nintendo can't manufacture more units is that they're battling with Apple for certain parts, why is that problem suddenly magically solved by fall? Does Apple suddenly stop manufacturing their devices by that time?

One might argue that Apple usually introduces their next iPhone revision by about that time, and will thus probably stop manufacturing the current revision soon - but how could Nintendo know that unlike the current revision, the next revision of the iPhone will not use the parts Nintendo is battling for with Apple?

Specifically availability of memory parts were problem on market currently, and infos suggested that problem will be solved.



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Slarvax on 26 July 2017

I can see it selling around 4-5 million just in Q4, so they can easily sell 10 million by the end of 2017. Of course, they would have to manufacture that many first.



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ArnoldRimmer on 26 July 2017
Miyamotoo said:
ArnoldRimmer said:

That at least makes a little more sense, but I still think that doesn't really fully explain things. If the only reason that Nintendo can't manufacture more units is that they're battling with Apple for certain parts, why is that problem suddenly magically solved by fall? Does Apple suddenly stop manufacturing their devices by that time?

One might argue that Apple usually introduces their next iPhone revision by about that time, and will thus probably stop manufacturing the current revision soon - but how could Nintendo know that unlike the current revision, the next revision of the iPhone will not use the parts Nintendo is battling for with Apple?

Specifically availability of memory parts were problem on market currently, and infos suggested that problem will be solved.

The bold part is very vague and just claims that this problem will be solved, but it doesn't give any explanation why that should be the case.

Anyway, I googled around and found some more information on this.

Indeed, there are reports particularly mentioning supply issues for the 32GB flash memory chip produced by Toshiba:

http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/05/31/nintendo-fights-parts-shortage-for-switch-wsj.html

 

But according to the teardowns by iFixit and techinsights:

https://www.ifixit.com/Teardown/Nintendo+Switch+Teardown/78263

http://techinsights.com/about-techinsights/overview/blog/nintendo-switch-teardown/

 

...the 32GB flash memory chip was placed on a separate storage board, probably in order to be able to use flash memory chips from multiple manufacturers and with different capacities. Apparently, Nintendo is already using different flash memory chips from at least two different companies (Toshiba and Samsung):

http://techinsights.com/techinsights/img/teardown/nintendo-switch/main-unit-2.jpg

https://d3nevzfk7ii3be.cloudfront.net/igi/BfRaEw2VLngWYsob.huge

 

So those eMMC flash memory chips do not really explain the supply problems; the Switch hardware is by design not limited to one particular flash memory chip that might have supply issues, it is compatible with various flash memory chips from multiple companies. So getting a few million eMMC flash memory chips can't be an unsolveable problem for Nintendo.

So please, give me another, better explanation why Nintendo should suddenly be able to significantly ramp up production in Q4. The explanations so far do not sound very convincing to me.



Miyamotoo on 26 July 2017
ArnoldRimmer said:
Miyamotoo said:

Specifically availability of memory parts were problem on market currently, and infos suggested that problem will be solved.

The bold part is very vague and just claims that this problem will be solved, but it doesn't give any explanation why that should be the case.

Anyway, I googled around and found some more information on this.

Indeed, there are reports particularly mentioning supply issues for the 32GB flash memory chip produced by Toshiba:

http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/05/31/nintendo-fights-parts-shortage-for-switch-wsj.html

 

But according to the teardowns by iFixit and techinsights:

https://www.ifixit.com/Teardown/Nintendo+Switch+Teardown/78263

http://techinsights.com/about-techinsights/overview/blog/nintendo-switch-teardown/

 

...the 32GB flash memory chip was placed on a separate storage board, probably in order to be able to use flash memory chips from multiple manufacturers and with different capacities. Apparently, Nintendo is already using different flash memory chips from at least two different companies (Toshiba and Samsung):

http://techinsights.com/techinsights/img/teardown/nintendo-switch/main-unit-2.jpg

https://d3nevzfk7ii3be.cloudfront.net/igi/BfRaEw2VLngWYsob.huge

 

So those eMMC flash memory chips do not really explain the supply problems; the Switch hardware is by design not limited to one particular flash memory chip that might have supply issues, it is compatible with various flash memory chips from multiple companies. So getting a few million eMMC flash memory chips can't be an unsolveable problem for Nintendo.

In any case, Nintendo said that manufacture of Switch will be increased from fall, they look like they aiming to have normal availability during holiday season.



Ljink96 on 26 July 2017

If and only if Nintendo can keep up. Mario Odyssey and Splatoon 2 can easily push past 10M by themselves.



SuperNova on 26 July 2017
ArnoldRimmer said:
Miyamotoo said:

Specifically availability of memory parts were problem on market currently, and infos suggested that problem will be solved.

The bold part is very vague and just claims that this problem will be solved, but it doesn't give any explanation why that should be the case.

Anyway, I googled around and found some more information on this.

Indeed, there are reports particularly mentioning supply issues for the 32GB flash memory chip produced by Toshiba:

http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/05/31/nintendo-fights-parts-shortage-for-switch-wsj.html

 

But according to the teardowns by iFixit and techinsights:

https://www.ifixit.com/Teardown/Nintendo+Switch+Teardown/78263

http://techinsights.com/about-techinsights/overview/blog/nintendo-switch-teardown/

 

...the 32GB flash memory chip was placed on a separate storage board, probably in order to be able to use flash memory chips from multiple manufacturers and with different capacities. Apparently, Nintendo is already using different flash memory chips from at least two different companies (Toshiba and Samsung):

http://techinsights.com/techinsights/img/teardown/nintendo-switch/main-unit-2.jpg

https://d3nevzfk7ii3be.cloudfront.net/igi/BfRaEw2VLngWYsob.huge

 

So those eMMC flash memory chips do not really explain the supply problems; the Switch hardware is by design not limited to one particular flash memory chip that might have supply issues, it is compatible with various flash memory chips from multiple companies. So getting a few million eMMC flash memory chips can't be an unsolveable problem for Nintendo.

So please, give me another, better explanation why Nintendo should suddenly be able to significantly ramp up production in Q4. The explanations so far do not sound very convincing to me.

Production increases have to be planned a negotioated. You can't just snap your fingers and have production increased by next week.

An increase in production needs to go down the entire supply chain and the bottleneck could be anywhere, be it from the company that delivers the screens producing at capacity and having another non-nintendo order to fullfill, or scarcity of flash memory in the whole market right now.

Some of these conflictsprobably will resolve around fall.

That's why these contracts are negotioated months in advance, because it can take significant time before production can be meaningfully increased and before that increase takes hold in the market. Production for Switch for example started last october indicating they slowly ramped up production to arrive at 2.7 at the end of march and then produced at a rate of approximately 0.6m per month after that. In March after the strong launch they decided to ramp up production. It is normal for that to take 3-6 months. That's just how the industry works.