I think the make or break for success for the Switch is, if it can attract unusual customers, unusual gamers. Nintendo-enthusiasts will be buying the system - but they did so with the WiiU too, that isn't enough. Let's see what is possible.

I don't see Nintendo has a big chance to compete with PS and XBOX, even if they would build a exact carbon copy of their machines at the same time, it wouldn't work. Western 3rd-parties still would prefer PS and XBOX.

Joycons

The Joycons may add a new gaming style, and support as far as I can tell most of the stuff the Wiimote could. This excludes the lightgun-feature, although an IR-cam is included so all needed for that would be something like the sensor-bar. The HD-rumble could turn out pretty cool. Also as I understand the IR-cam can be used to detect shapes made with the other hand, it might be add new ways to play.

Critical for this to work obviously is to have games that utilize these features to make it possible to play in new ways. So, whta we have in this regard? So far I can see 1-2-Switch and Arms for that.

1-2-Switch might be the showcase for the Joycon-features. But I'm pretty unsure if it will work in the same way Wii Sports did. So far it seems the games are very mini-games, more like Wario-stuff. That impression might be wrong, but that is the feel I get. I also don't know how much content it has and what it is priced.

Arms seems to be a very elaborated Wii boxing. It might actually work, it looks fun and seems to have replayability.

This alone will not do it. More games targeted at joycon-features are needed. It would be troubling if Nintendo doesn't announce more such games soon after the launch. In another thread I already though up, that a remake of WiiSportResort would be a good idea. Most of the events would probably work with the joycons and need only a little adjustment to feature also the HD-rumble. Maybe tennis and boxing can be added as events from WiiSports, they were working the best. The models and textures probably need only a bit of work, the comic-look should work on HD well enough.

Another thing in need to make this work is advertisement. Nintendo could have the perfect product for 100 million people, but they can't purchase it, if they don't know about it. So far I think the advertisement is more aimed at classical and Nintendo gamers.

A big turnoff might be the pricepoint. With these group some gaming-fun might justify 200€$ or maybe even 205€$, but 300€$? Even more, it seems so far no game is included in the bundle, like WiiSports was with the Wii. This adds even more to the cost.

Conclusion: it's pretty unclear how that will turn out. There is a potential for many customers, but Nintendo has work to do to use it.

Nintendo gamers

I think this is easy: 3D Mario and Zelda, Mario Kart, Splatoon. I think these are in the boat. Maybe Nintendo could throw in some Metroid.

Conclusion: I think Nintendo has secured most of the Nintendo-loyals. But keep in mind, this is not an extremely large group, they were in on the WiiU too.

Kids

Some strong group in the past for Nintendo were kids. That one pretty much was missed on the WiiU. So securing kids would actually increase the sales-potential.

Hardware side it is hard to judge by now. The joycons might work, but a pretty big factor with kids would also be how robust the system is. No idea so far. The OS should be OK, I mean Nintendo by now has enough experience to implement proper age restriction-features. This leaves us with the games. Mario should appeal to kids. Also Lego. Arms might also work. Besides that nothing seems much targeted at kids. Pokemon or Yokai Watch would do wonders here.

Also the price might be a hurdle here. Parents would make the decision much easier, if the price would be lower.

Conclusion: The Switch needs more games targeted at kids. Also price cut. Then it might work pretty well with kids.

Japan

3DS and Vita work pretty well in Japan. To take this market Switch needs to be portable - check. Battery life seems not too much an issue, as Japanese seem to game mostly near a power source, but not at home.

So, this leaves us with the games. The known games so far have a lot what works in Japan: Mario, Minecraft, Dragon Quest, Fire Emblem Warriors. But I think to take over Japan it still needs some more: Monster Hunter, Yokai Watch, Pokemon, a lot of smaller RPG and visual novel. Hopefully Monster Hunter so far isn't announced because they don't want to hurt sales of MHXX on the 3DS. Pokemon may need time, Gamefreak might even release another 3DS-game. If Nintendo does no other 3DS-successor (and Sony propbably will do nothing to replace Vita), these games eventually will jump to Switch. But it may take time.

Conclusion: With the already anounced games Switch may sell OKish in Japan, but it needs Monster Hunter and the Switch of a lot smaller RPGs and visual novels to Switch to get the 3DS- and Vita-market in Japan.

Handheld

As a hybrid console Switch targets mobile users. While many argue the market has shrinked because of phones, there is obviously still some potential as highlighted by the 3DS.

Three things are essential for handheld consoles: battery life, price and games.

Battery was announced yesterday with 3,5 to 6,5 hours. This puts it in the 3DS area - not very good but sufficient. A better battery life would be helpful though. Maybe advanced battery packs will be announced.

The price is too high for a handheld at this point. No way around that. It might be somewhat helped by the fact that it doubles as a home console, but only a few might be swayed by that.

Games - well, usually on handhelds different games do well. Turn-based is better if you are interrupted while gaming, which happens more on the go than at home. I don't see much of the usual handheld games in the presentation: no Etrian Odyssey, no Fire Emblem, no Animal Crossing and big: no Pokemon. It has Mario and Mario Kart though, both works well on the 3DS. Still, that doesn't seem to be enough, I hope Nintendo does add more stuff here.

Conclusion: Might need more mobile oriented games and a price cut to work well in this area.

Mobile gamers

This one I added after some thinking. Reviewing the table of 3rd-party-supporters shown on reveal I realized a lot of 3rd-parties aren't yet accounted for. But among the technical partners I saw also DeNA. Now Nintendo and DeNA are in a partnership, but Nintendo wouldn't show DeNA if they aren't offering something for Switch. I don't know what DeNA is doing except for Mobage. Now, if (and I don't know about it) DeNA is porting Mobage to the Switch this could be big. Mobage is a platform for thousands of developers and their games. It is for mobile games and focused on Asia. So far Nintendo has said nothing in this direction, but if they would do it, they would reserve probably a separate event for that. And it would work. The Switch sports an ARM like all mobile and has a touch-screen. So it should be easy to port over mobile games. In many cases this probably only involves a retest to check if everything works as expected. Bringing mobile games to the Switch would really pad out the library for gamers of all sorts, but also could bring some mobile gamers into the fold.

Conclusion: So far Nintendo said nothing, so that is purely sppeculation. But the Switch would work for mobile games and with DeNA Nintendo has a partner ideal for it. All that is missing is an announcement they actually do support mobile games.

So, what do you think?

Im not sure how the handheld crowd will react to 2.5 hours - 3hours of battery life, in a game like Zelda BoTW on the Switch. Nor the 299$ price point (very few handhelds are sold that expensive and sell well).

The handheld crowd that buys nintendo handhelds is a huge part of their market. Hopefully once nintendo cuts price by like 100$ the 3DS owners will start jumping ship to the switch.

No. They will get the remaining Wii U and 3DS owners and like it.

I also clicked "don't care" because my enjoyment of the console is not reliant on how well it sells.

1,2 Switch is no Wii Sports and even if it was, selling it in today's market for $50 seperately would be tough.

Bottom line is everyone has a smartphone today and most households even have a tablet on top of that.

That means everyone has access to cheap, free, easy to play games whenever they feel the urge.

No one's paying $300 + $50 (this price is obscene) to play a mini-game about counting balls or milking cows for 10 second bursts. 

I suspect Nintendo is giving this a shot again because why not, but they are not willing to bundle 1,2 Switch with the Switch itself because they are worried the system would get branded a joke if the game is not successful. 

I don't see kids coming back to Nintendo, but I think they have a good chance with people in their 20s and 30s that love to hang out with others and usually don't game much

It all depends on the games. We still haven't seen much on that front.

No.

If they had made it backwards compatible to the WiiU and Wii games, I would have jumped in (even if it would just have done for docked mode). I'm not jumping into this company's product because of their lack of support for their last home console. Their 3Ds has better support, but I've never been a fan. I've owned a ds lite (it was a gift) and I've never really touched it...

I'll revisit my decision in 3 years, unlike the PS4 pro (which I will not buy or their PSVR beta versions). I guess being older means I'm less likely to fork over my money for new gimmicks, and this is what I see Nintendo's new Console as, a gimmick until they prove me otherwise. Come on Nintendo, prove me wrong!

Not in the first year, when I think Nintendo is banking on its fandom. I expect a holiday price cut which can make the console attractive as a second choice for core gamers (with Zelda, Xeno, Mario, Mario Kart and Splatoon 2 released hopefully), and accesible for a casual audience.

IMO switch should come bundled with ARMS. Yes, 1 2 Switch is the obvious pack in title and 50$ for it is hideous, but ARMS seem unique, fun and most importantly, really good.
It does well demonstrating some of the switches features, such as the HD rumble and the improved motion controls, but also leaves you the freedom of choosing traditional controls.

If Nintendo had thrown both 1 2 Switch and ARMS in as pack ins I wouldn't even have minded the price aymore.

I doubt it. Many Nintendo consoles (except Wii) have sold to hardcore fans. Switch has done nothing to rectify this. What will be interesting is to see how the handheld market impacts the Switch lifetime sales.