Forums - Gaming Discussion - The Michael Pachter Prediction Tracker Thread

Gaming Analyst Michael Pachter has been around for 1011 years now.  He makes a lot of predictions.  They generate a lot of controversy here, often because he says things that we don't want to hear.

He also has a reputation for being wrong a lot.  So I asked myself - is he actually wrong more often, or do we just selectively remember the times that he was wrong?  Or do we just choose to believe he is wrong because we don't like his predictions?

In this thread, I'll make a list of his predictions, and track which ones were correct.  Feel free to help.  I ask that any predictions and results come with cited sources.

Last edited by Miguel_Zorro - on 11 January 2018

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Past Measurable Predictions:

  1. Prediction - December 27, 2013:  "We expect Sony's and Microsoft's new consoles to thrive over the next three years, with cumulative worldwide sales of 37.7 million PS4s by year end 2016" (http://kotaku.com/predictions-for-2016s-winners-and-losers-of-the-new-co-1490431773) - Verdict: Correct in that it sold at least that.

  2. Prediction - March 24, 2009: "I think the PS3, 360 and Wii will be the last generation of consoles" (http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/90443-Pachter-This-Is-The-Final-Generation) - Verdict: Incorrect.

  3. Prediction - December 27, 2013: "We expect Sony's and Microsoft's new consoles to thrive over the next three years, with cumulative worldwide sales of 29 million Xbox One consoles by year end 2016" (http://kotaku.com/predictions-for-2016s-winners-and-losers-of-the-new-co-1490431773) - Verdict: Close.  25.5 million on VGChartz as of end of November.

  4. Prediction - December 27, 2013: "We do not expect Nintendo's Wii U to fare as well, with cumulative sales of under 20 million by 2016" (http://kotaku.com/predictions-for-2016s-winners-and-losers-of-the-new-co-1490431773) - Verdict: Correct.

  5. Prediction - December 27, 2013: "We expect console prices to decline only modestly over the next three years, with PS4 pricing in the US dropping from $399 at launch to $299 by 2016" (http://kotaku.com/predictions-for-2016s-winners-and-losers-of-the-new-co-1490431773) - Verdict: The PS4 bundle hit $250 in 2016.

  6. Prediction - December 27, 2013: "We expect console prices to decline only modestly over the next three years, with XBox One pricing in the US dropping from $499 at launch to $349 by 2016" (http://kotaku.com/predictions-for-2016s-winners-and-losers-of-the-new-co-1490431773) - Verdict: The Xbox One can be found for cheaper, but he may have been including Kinect.

  7. Prediction - December 27, 2013: "We expect new release software pricing to remain at $59.99 in the US for the next three years" (http://kotaku.com/predictions-for-2016s-winners-and-losers-of-the-new-co-1490431773) - Verdict: Correct.

  8. Prediction - January 6, 2012: "Wii U to have poor third party support" (http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/115097-Pachter-Predicts-Poor-Third-Party-Support-for-Wii-U) - Verdict: Correct

  9. Prediction - Several times up to E3 2017 "XBox Scorpio to Cost No More Than $399" (http://cogconnected.com/2017/06/michael-pachter-scorpio-399/) - Verdict: Incorrect
2017 Predictions:

Several made December 20th, 2016 at http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2016-12-20-what-to-expect-in-the-games-biz-for-2017

1. PS4 Price to $199 within 2017 - Verdict: I'm going with Incorrect.  It did it $199 in some sales but I don't believe the ongoing price was $199.  However, they did make the default system 1TB instead of 500GB, so this one is debateable.

2. No Rockstar games other than Red Dead Redemption in 2017 - Verdict: Correct.  And not even Red Dead Redemption!

3. Call of Duty returns to glory (tough to measure): Verdict: Correct.  Call of Duty World War 2 did really well.
- Part two "With a Modern Warfare Title": Verdict: Incorrect.  It was World War 2.

4. Switch demand will be high.  The Switch will be sold out through September.  I believe this prediction as based on a price of $249. Verdict: Correct. Even at a higher price.

5. XBox Scorpio will be $399: Verdict: Incorrect.  It's more than that.

6. New Elder Scrolls in 2017 - Verdict: Incorrect

7. No New Half Life game in 2017 - Verdict: Correct

8. "Microsoft will continue to support their systems, including Scorpio, with first party games"
http://gamingbolt.com/scalebound-cancellation-is-unfortunate-xbox-scorpio-will-see-lot-of-first-and-third-party-support-pachterVerdict: Trending Poorly

Last edited by Miguel_Zorro - on 11 January 2018

2018 Predictions:

TBD

Last edited by Miguel_Zorro - on 11 January 2018

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Splendid idea, Zorro

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Pachter's track record might come out to 50/50 in being right or wrong, but he got his reputation because the things he gets right tend to be as difficult to predict as another Cleveland Browns loss while he can be way off the mark when he is wrong despite visible signs that contradict his reasoning.

http://gamingbolt.com/pachter-the-order-1886-could-sell-5-million-by-2015-end-10-12-million-if-sony-opts-for-a-ps4-bundle

“It’s a really good exclusive title and I think it attaches at a pretty high rate to the install base so probably 3.5 to 4 million of the install base, and then I think it will probably attract another 1 to 2 million to buy a PlayStation 4 in the next few months. So I would imagine it would be 5 million through the year’s end and it’s great,” Pachter said in an interview with GamingBolt.

“I think it’s going to receive good reviews."

There's more at the link, but this was right before the game's release.

At times he also does a complete 180 within a few months. Whether that is about covering all bases or honestly changing his mind on a subject is anybody's guess. Sometimes he also just says things to piss people off and get more hits for his videos.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Is this a general Patcher thread? Finally!

I WANT TO BELIEVE

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

just don't forget the one about how XB1 would dominate this gen because of skype and TV.

Lol, great idea, the man is full of gold nuggets for sure.

End of 2016 hardware sales:

Wii U: 15 million. PS4: 54 million. One: 30 million. 3DS: 64.8 million. PSVita: 15.2 million.

Are we allowed to post any of his predictions that are non-video game related?

Proud to be a Californian.