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Forums - Politics Discussion - Why Bernie Sanders wouldn't have won against Donald Trump in the election.

haxxiy on 26 November 2016
Soundwave said:

Sanders would've won, and Biden would have too (Pennsylvania is off the map right away) and Obama would've wrecked Trump. Any one of those three guys would've won.

You don't know that and never will. What we know is that Trump would have won even against Obama 2012 because of outperformed him on swing states. 538, if I'm not mistaken, ran the numbers already.



 

 

 

 

 

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Soundwave on 26 November 2016
haxxiy said:
Soundwave said:

Sanders would've won, and Biden would have too (Pennsylvania is off the map right away) and Obama would've wrecked Trump. Any one of those three guys would've won.

You don't know that and never will. What we know is that Trump would have won even against Obama 2012 because of outperformed him on swing states. 538, if I'm not mistaken, ran the numbers already.

I'm not seeing it from the actual numbers. 

Obama (2012) Pennslyvania: 2,990,274

Trump (2016) Pennslyvania: 2,900,785

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Pennsylvania,_2012

https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election_in_Pennsylvania,_2016

Winner: Obama

 

Michigan isn't even close.

Obama (2012): 2,564,569

Trump: 2,279,543

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Michigan,_2012

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Michigan,_2016

 

Wisconsin: Again Obama wins easily

Obama (2012): 1,620,985

Trump: 1,409,282

Ohio: 

Obama (2012): 2,827,709

Trump: 2,771,984

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Ohio,_2012

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Ohio,_2016

Obama also holds Virginia and wins Iowa, albiet by a narrow margin. I'm not sure, but it doesn't seem to like Trump has any possible map to victory here. That's like a total of 80 electoral votes swinging the other way.  

2008 Obama wins in bigger numbers as well. 



Slimebeast on 26 November 2016

No way that the USA would have elected a freaking socialist, basically a communist.

That would have been absolutely disgusting. Hillary I could have lived with, Sanders not.



chapset on 26 November 2016

He would have if he did what every candidate does and go back to the center during the general election, with all the gaffes Trump did vs a sanders without all the corruption craps of Hillary I think he would have won, and Trump can't be calling anyone on trying to turn the US into russia when he's been dick riding putin so much. If Obama had express all the love Trump did for Putin the right would have gone completely insane.



Bet reminder: I bet with Tboned51 that Splatoon won't reach the 1 million shipped mark by the end of 2015. I win if he loses and I lose if I lost.

fatslob-:O on 26 November 2016
deskpro2k3 said:

your guess is as good as mine, but It doesn't change the fact that a lot of people that was independent still didn't get to vote for bernie in other states.

The states listed below utilize open primaries/caucuses for presidential nominating contests.

  • Alabama
  • Arkansas
  • California (Democrats, American Independents, and Libertarians only)
  • Georgia
  • Idaho (Democrats only)
  • Illinois
  • Indiana
  • Michigan
  • Minnesota
  • Mississippi
  • Missouri
  • Montana
  • North Dakota
  • Ohio
  • South Carolina
  • Tennessee
  • Texas
  • Utah (Democrats only)
  • Vermont
  • Virginia
  • Washington (Democrats only)
  • Wisconsin

The matter of voting comes down to registering with a party at least 6 weeks before a primary begins ... 

Furthermore, independents often lean conservative according to historical data analysis so if Sanders is disadvantaged due to closed primaries then the case remains true for Clinton. The only time I could ever recall independents favouring Democrats more than average was with John Kerry and Barack Obama each one time and all the way back to 1976 ... 



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Slimebeast on 26 November 2016
Hiku said:
Slimebeast said:

No way that the USA would have elected a freaking socialist, basically a communist.

Oh stop. You you should know the difference between democratic socialism, and communism.
USA is already very socialistic. The one thing that separates them from other such countries is universal healthcare and tuition free college.

Ohh, the horror! Right?
But that's what Bernie wanted.

I know the Bernie type. Secret admirer of Marx and Lenin. Guys that don't become upset by stuff like Gulag or the Long March. I've met dozens of that type in my life. A communist in his soul.

I don't believe Bernie would have stopped at universal healthcare and tuition free college. That's a very naive thought. All the totalitarian SJWs and aggressive leftists supported his campaign meetings. Horrible people. It was disgusting to witness. A politican like Bernie would accelerate the dangerous process toward the socialist totalitarian state where free speech is prohibited because all opposing opinion is labeled as hate speech in some form.

A true leftist hates democracy. They are never satisfied, not until the whole world is conquered, and everybody has been made "equal" and suppressed under socialist ideology.



fatslob-:O on 26 November 2016
Soundwave said:

Sanders would've won, and Biden would have too (Pennsylvania is off the map right away) and Obama would've wrecked Trump. Any one of those three guys would've won.

It was a very winnable election for the Democrats, Trump was fortunate to run against someone who was almost as unlikable as him in Hillary, that's what kept it close enough for him to turn some traditionally blue states. It was an election between the two most unliked candidates in modern American political history though.

Clinton had too much baggage and wasn't charismatic enough to engage the younger portions of the Obama coalition. She also was an unethusiastic campaigner, whereas you saw the huge enthusiasm at Bernie rallies, that would've spread.

I think Bernie flips Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennslyvania, and perhaps Iowa as well (he, like Obama, did very well there, Clinton has never done well there).

People wanted something different this cycle, Clinton was as establishment as it gets, put Bernie in there and it would contrast how much of an asshole Trump is. Bernie would've done better with indepedents and younger voters, that's enough to find an extra 200k votes between Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennslyvania. I also think he would've been very competetive in Iowa. 

The "he's a commie" thing wouldn't have stuck as much IMO. Soviet Union has been dead for 20+ years, it's the equivalent now of "well I just can't see a black guy ever winning the presidency" which people used to say all the time in 2007/08. 20 years ago maybe not, today things have changed.

Bernie still lost Iowa and Pennsylvania to Clinton, I still don't think he would've won either of those states in the general election. (Iowa went overwhelmingly for Trump in the general election and whatever Bernie is doing, it was spooking Pennsylvania. Oh and the 200000 vote gap in the primaries applied ONLY to Pennslyvania specifically.) 

Trump is so unlikeable that he somehow managed to get more votes than either Romney or McCain ...

Not enough information on Joe Biden to see how he would perform ... 



NightDragon83 on 26 November 2016

Joe Biden had the best shot of all Democrats to win the election, but his campaign never got off the ground because the Clinton machine put the kibosh on it right away in order to secure her path to the nomination (Sanders never had a realistic shot at winning the nomination, which is why the Clinton machine "let" him run). 

Joe Biden didn't have any of the baggage Clinton did, and he would have held onto enough of the Obama coalition and states that he won in 2012 to secure an electoral victory.  The political and media establishment in this country however was in the tank for Hillary basically from the day after the 2012 election, and this is one of the big reasons why Trump won, because it was a giant F*CK YOU! to everyone who basically told the country to vote for Hillary or be labeled a sexist, racist, homophobic, Islamophobic, moronic and above all, deplorable.



On 2/24/13, MB1025 said:
You know I was always wondering why no one ever used the dollar sign for $ony, but then I realized they have no money so it would be pointless.

fatslob-:O on 27 November 2016
Teeqoz said:
Hillary lost simply because the FBI chose to go out and say they had found new emails (that unsurprisingly turned out to be nothing). That much is clear from the polls, even when accounting for the very visible error margin that the election itself proved that the polls had. So suggesting that anything else than a Trump win was out of the question is ridiculous.

You definitely want to be cautious about arguing on the basis of pollster data for this election ... 

The supposed "error margin" doesn't quite explain how Trump was able to climb the blue wall in those key crucial swing states either when polling aggregators were also far off in those states with lot's of collected data to boot ... 

These polling errors almost certainly felt closer to being systematic than noisy ... 

Hillary didn't lose because of the FBI announcement, she most likely lost because the late undecided voters swinged heavily in Trump's favour according to exit polls and Hillary was also cleared again once more before the election ... 

Hillary's campaign was also in shambles too. Wasn't exactly a bright idea to campaign in Arizona or trade rust belt support for the south and the northeast. (Her staff had some nerve to ignore a former POTUS, Bill Clinton's wisdom.)



Insidb on 27 November 2016
Slimebeast said:

I know the Bernie type. Secret admirer of Marx and Lenin. Guys that don't become upset by stuff like Gulag or the Long March. I've met dozens of that type in my life. A communist in his soul.

I don't believe Bernie would have stopped at universal healthcare and tuition free college. That's a very naive thought. All the totalitarian SJWs and aggressive leftists supported his campaign meetings. Horrible people. It was disgusting to witness. A politican like Bernie would accelerate the dangerous process toward the socialist totalitarian state where free speech is prohibited because all opposing opinion is labeled as hate speech in some form.

A true leftist hates democracy. They are never satisfied, not until the whole world is conquered, and everybody has been made "equal" and suppressed under socialist ideology.

You must be referring to Stephen Bannon, Donald Trump's Chief Strategist and avowed mouthpiece for the alt-right: "I am a Leninist."

Cue "Down goes Slimebeast! Down goes Slimebeast!"