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Forums - Sales Discussion - June 2016 NPD Results

Ryng_Tolu said:
Aquamarine said:
Ryng_Tolu...

You're complaining about me giving a large range for Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE over on NeoGAF.

There's a reason I gave it a range of 30K-80K.

...Wait, where?

Maybe you confuse me with The Prodigy.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=210081426&postcount=395

Here all comments i made on GAF:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=210067158&postcount=379

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=210071925&postcount=384

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=210077232&postcount=389

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=210079428&postcount=390

Oh right, sorry dude. My bad.

Could you post that response I made above? Thank you! :)

 

Aquamarine said:

Kill3r7 on NeoGAF: "You were right after all about Overwatch. Do we know if Overwatch was number 1 for the month of June?"


Someone who's on NeoGAF please copy and paste this post:



Yes, Overwatch was #1 for June, and Doom, and Uncharted 4 were right behind it on the rankings, as was GTA V.

Also, NPD said that Kirby: Planet Robobot was #4 on the physical charts.

Minecraft also did very well this month, buoyed by the release of Minecraft Wii U which did a lot better than I thought it would.



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Aquamarine said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

...Wait, where?

Maybe you confuse me with The Prodigy.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=210081426&postcount=395

Here all comments i made on GAF:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=210067158&postcount=379

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=210071925&postcount=384

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=210077232&postcount=389

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=210079428&postcount=390

Oh right, sorry dude. My bad.

Could you post that response I made above? Thank you! :)

 

Aquamarine said:

Kill3r7 on NeoGAF: "You were right after all about Overwatch. Do we know if Overwatch was number 1 for the month of June?"


Someone who's on NeoGAF please copy and paste this post:



Yes, Overwatch was #1 for June, and Doom, and Uncharted 4 were right behind it on the rankings, as was GTA V.

Also, NPD said that Kirby: Planet Robobot was #4 on the physical charts.

Minecraft also did very well this month, buoyed by the release of Minecraft Wii U which did a lot better than I thought it would.

No worry :P

Already posted. :D



So, why did Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE bomb? No FE support on home consoles? The style was unappealing to the Nintendo home console fanbase? No advertising? Because the Wii U is already in a box in the storage room? I've been hearing about this game for a long time, though obviously VGC is a poor sample for real-world consumers.



pokoko said:
So, why did Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE bomb? No FE support on home consoles? The style was unappealing to the Nintendo home console fanbase? No advertising? Because the Wii U is already in a box in the storage room? I've been hearing about this game for a long time, though obviously VGC is a poor sample for real-world consumers.

It's a toxic cocktail of reasons:

1) It wasn't what people expected which turned off a lot of Nintendo diehards who were initially interested in it

2) Wii U is completely irrelevant in the retail market that's dominated by PlayStation and Xbox so it gets very little retail exposure

3) The whole JPOP market that #FE captures plays their games on the Vita, PS4, and PS3 to a lesser extent....nobody buys a Wii U for a JPOP-inspired JRPG...or any traditional JRPG for that matter.

4) Nintendo of America pretty much sent it out to die. The marketing budget for this game was tiny-to-non-existent. For example, Nintendo didn't have a single TV spot for the game according to real-time TV ad metrics.

5) NoA's asinine censorship pissed off some otakus who refused to support it...aka the core base of those who would buy this game...and you really can't do that in 2016.

6) Piracy on the Wii U (and now Wii U emulation on PCs) hurts software sales

7) It doesn't have the best reviews in the world with only an 81 on Metacritic...some people have a lot of fun with it, but it's not universally acclaimed like Persona 4 was....so you don't get much of a word-of-mouth effect



Aquamarine said:
pokoko said:
So, why did Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE bomb? No FE support on home consoles? The style was unappealing to the Nintendo home console fanbase? No advertising? Because the Wii U is already in a box in the storage room? I've been hearing about this game for a long time, though obviously VGC is a poor sample for real-world consumers.

It's a toxic cocktail of reasons:

1) It wasn't what people expected which turned off a lot of Nintendo diehards who were initially interested in it

2) Wii U is completely irrelevant in the retail market that's dominated by PlayStation and Xbox so it gets very little retail exposure

3) The whole JPOP market that #FE captures plays their games on the Vita, PS4, and PS3 to a lesser extent....nobody buys a Wii U for a JPOP-inspired JRPG...or any traditional JRPG for that matter.

4) Nintendo of America pretty much sent it out to die. The marketing budget for this game was tiny-to-non-existent. For example, Nintendo didn't have a single TV spot for the game according to real-time TV ad metrics.

5) NoA's asinine censorship pissed off some otakus who refused to support it...aka the core base of those who would buy this game...and you really can't do that in 2016.

6) Piracy on the Wii U (and now Wii U emulation on PCs) hurts software sales

7) It doesn't have the best reviews in the world with only an 81 on Metacritic...some people have a lot of fun with it, but it's not universally acclaimed like Persona 4 was....so you don't get much of a word-of-mouth effect

I wonder if this is going to go down as a failed experiment for Nintendo, then.  Niche Japanese games pretty much belong to Sony at this point, with the PC contingent growing.  81 is quite decent for this type of game.  

Seriously, though, building a fanbase for something that is not in your normal repertoire requires effort and advertising.  If they're not going to put resources into it then it's wasted.  



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pokoko said:
Aquamarine said:

It's a toxic cocktail of reasons:

1) It wasn't what people expected which turned off a lot of Nintendo diehards who were initially interested in it

2) Wii U is completely irrelevant in the retail market that's dominated by PlayStation and Xbox so it gets very little retail exposure

3) The whole JPOP market that #FE captures plays their games on the Vita, PS4, and PS3 to a lesser extent....nobody buys a Wii U for a JPOP-inspired JRPG...or any traditional JRPG for that matter.

4) Nintendo of America pretty much sent it out to die. The marketing budget for this game was tiny-to-non-existent. For example, Nintendo didn't have a single TV spot for the game according to real-time TV ad metrics.

5) NoA's asinine censorship pissed off some otakus who refused to support it...aka the core base of those who would buy this game...and you really can't do that in 2016.

6) Piracy on the Wii U (and now Wii U emulation on PCs) hurts software sales

7) It doesn't have the best reviews in the world with only an 81 on Metacritic...some people have a lot of fun with it, but it's not universally acclaimed like Persona 4 was....so you don't get much of a word-of-mouth effect

I wonder if this is going to go down as a failed experiment for Nintendo, then.  Niche Japanese games pretty much belong to Sony at this point, with the PC contingent growing.  81 is quite decent for this type of game.  

Seriously, though, building a fanbase for something that is not in your normal repertoire requires effort and advertising.  If they're not going to put resources into it then it's wasted.  

It's 81 on Metacritic because Nintendo put a lot of resources into this.

A ~50K first month (averaged, not exact number) for Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE is not commensurate with the financial and manpower investment they put into it.

Even Xenoblade Chronicles X managed >200K in the USA.



So Amazon still lived up to their reputation on predicting 1st place.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Aquamarine said:
ExtremeBrawler said:
Mh, I was expecting a lighter drop for Uncharted 4. Anyway, not a bad number for its second month.
Mirrors Edge: Catalyst debut, even considering it counts just retail sales, is...ouch.

Agreed, considering the time invested into Mirror's Edge: Catalyst. 100K for that result is horrible.

But an even weaker result for Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE....man....I heard about that game back in early 2013. It's been in development for a WHILE and Nintendo had likely put a lot of development resources into it. A shame to see that....not really go anywhere.

Unfortunately, the current Wii U state severly damaged the game's potential, alongside the game's presentation style not thrilling enough for the userbase (especially as how they showed it from the re-unveiling...however I'd dare to say that, maybe, NoA did a better job at selling it compared to NoJ, even when factoring in the censorship. Bold statement, and I can perfectly be wrong, but it's an impression I got considering the game's Japanese launch as well). Metacritic's average is not that bad, 81 is good, I think it could've been actually worse if it weren't for that. I thought it would've been in the 50,000-to-75,000 gap, so around 50,000 (if your hint really pointed at that as another poster guessed) would be at the lower limit of my forecasted gap. Not such a good result for a game with this kind of development (however, they announced it without any resemblance of footage of it either, and the Atlus events before SEGA acquired them surely influenced the development time), but I'm not as "catastrophic" as you sound about its debut month. It could've been way worse. It would've surely been way worse if it launched before Mario Kart 8, that's for sure :P Again, if it's around 50,000 as guessed earlier.

Mario & Sonic did pretty bad. Yeah, the game is doing pretty well on 3DS in Japan and it was charting nicely in some European countries, and the Wii U version is doing decently in Japan, but both of them were failures in US. I wonder what's going to happen with the next iteration (if there's going to be another), maybe some major changes would be needed to the formula.

Also, let's see if I'm good at this:  I guess a range between 75,000 and 130,000 for Kirby and one between 60,000 to 120,000 for Minecraft Wii U. Are those good ranges, after all? :P



Aquamarine said:

It's a toxic cocktail of reasons:

1) It wasn't what people expected which turned off a lot of Nintendo diehards who were initially interested in it

2) Wii U is completely irrelevant in the retail market that's dominated by PlayStation and Xbox so it gets very little retail exposure

3) The whole JPOP market that #FE captures plays their games on the Vita, PS4, and PS3 to a lesser extent....nobody buys a Wii U for a JPOP-inspired JRPG...or any traditional JRPG for that matter.

4) Nintendo of America pretty much sent it out to die. The marketing budget for this game was tiny-to-non-existent. For example, Nintendo didn't have a single TV spot for the game according to real-time TV ad metrics.

5) NoA's asinine censorship pissed off some otakus who refused to support it...aka the core base of those who would buy this game...and you really can't do that in 2016.

6) Piracy on the Wii U (and now Wii U emulation on PCs) hurts software sales

7) It doesn't have the best reviews in the world with only an 81 on Metacritic...some people have a lot of fun with it, but it's not universally acclaimed like Persona 4 was....so you don't get much of a word-of-mouth effect

I agree with every reason you gave here except for reason 5. I feel as though Fire Emblem Fates kind of rid us of the idea that vocal minority on the Internet can really impact the sales of of these types of games. Fates ended up being the best selling game in the series by a longshot and now Nintendo  considers it a bigger franchise than they ever have. 



I'm a Nintendo fan who's on gaming sites daily and I still don't know what the fuck Tokyo Mirage Sessions is about exactly, lol. Like yeah I know Fire Emblem something, something.

That game selling even 80k with that title would be good.