Leave or remain | |||
| Leave | 412 | 53.72% | |
| Remain | 355 | 46.28% | |
| Total: | 767 | ||
| Darama said: Whichever keeps more refugees out us what I'm choosing. |
Which is neither...
Scoobes said:
Maybe, but in the case of a Brexit vote they would be the only party capable of forming a majority vote and whipping the rest of the party in-line. Beside, all I want is a coherent plan that isn't just rhetoric spouted at the most opportune time. So far, from what i can see, the majority of legal avenues that would have the least negative impact on trade and our economy include: 1. Still contributing to the EU budget (but without a rebate) 2. Still having free movement of people 3. Still have to abide by all the EU regulations 4. Having no say on EU legislation as we do now The other option would be to only have a small selection of deals so we might not have to sign up to all of 1-3 or fall back to WTO rules, but in both cases we're then having to pay a lot more in trade tarifs and all the economic models suggest we'd economically be a lot worse off. |
Yeah I'm not going to say any it all of them won't happen.
But I do think there are just as many unknowns with remaining. Things which can change our current relationship whilst in the EU:
Additional countries joining which could dilute the money returned to the UK. Wales keeps getting told it'll be poorer for example, but it's current investment is only guaranteed until 2020 in the EU.
Very fragile economies requiring significant assistance from all EU members. There has been a lot of plasters slapped across problems to postpone them. Not just the migrant crisis (which was imposed despite many nations objections remember which questions vetos etc on other issues) but also how Greece has been dealt with.
I get what you mean about bojo and gove etc proposing more however I don't think they could really I highly doubt they could command a majority and they would have labour leave etc challenging it saying no that's not how it would go. I think a general election this year would be highly likely in the event of brexit. That would be when we would go to polls on the direction we would want to take outside the EU.
Another thing in the event of brexit is it could well be a catalyst for the full break up of the EU. It would be liberating for many of the hamstrung economies to finally be able to take the true steps they need to to fix themselves.
I might be completely wrong, but as I see it, what the Euro has allowed. Is for Germany to enjoy artificially low currency value anchored down by other countries in the EU who are suffering s a result.
On listening to experts, they are the same ones who said how left behind the UK would be if it didn't join the Euro. Many of the sceptic ones back then, are sceptical now.
Yes more economists say it would be bad, but they didn't necessarily mean they are right, there are still plenty saying the opposite. They completely missed the crash of 08 even though some who were shouted down DID predict it.
But more so economics isn't a science so nobody can ever truly know. But it's about more than the economy to most people. Something remain have really dropped the ball on with firing all their trump cards so fast.
I honestly think alot of the "project fear" has been Cameron calling in favours from his buddies and contacts as much as genuine concern for the poor people of the UK. I mean the"facts" they have provided about precisely how worse off we will be etc are just blatant lies. If the benefits of the EU were really so good, it should have been a far easier sell for them than it is.
I don't think a brexit would be an overnight improvement. But in 30 years I can honestly see us looking back and thinking it was a good decision overall and that we have benefited from it should that be the way we go.
Update: after JCB last week Dyson now also joining in on UK better out. So the business case is becoming increasingly split too. Remembering that these are big companies that trade with the EU
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36505735
RIP Dad 25/11/51 - 13/12/13. You will be missed but never forgotten.
TL:dr
We have just as little idea how the EU will look in 2046 as we do how brexit would.
RIP Dad 25/11/51 - 13/12/13. You will be missed but never forgotten.
MikeRox said:
Yeah I'm not going to say any it all of them won't happen. But I do think there are just as many unknowns with remaining. Things which can change our current relationship whilst in the EU:
Additional countries joining which could dilute the money returned to the UK. Wales keeps getting told it'll be poorer for example, but it's current investment is only guaranteed until 2020 in the EU. Very fragile economies requiring significant assistance from all EU members. There has been a lot of plasters slapped across problems to postpone them. Not just the migrant crisis (which was imposed despite many nations objections remember which questions vetos etc on other issues) but also how Greece has been dealt with.
I get what you mean about bojo and gove etc proposing more however I don't think they could really I highly doubt they could command a majority and they would have labour leave etc challenging it saying no that's not how it would go. I think a general election this year would be highly likely in the event of brexit. That would be when we would go to polls on the direction we would want to take outside the EU.
Another thing in the event of brexit is it could well be a catalyst for the full break up of the EU. It would be liberating for many of the hamstrung economies to finally be able to take the true steps they need to to fix themselves.
I might be completely wrong, but as I see it, what the Euro has allowed. Is for Germany to enjoy artificially low currency value anchored down by other countries in the EU who are suffering s a result.
On listening to experts, they are the same ones who said how left behind the UK would be if it didn't join the Euro. Many of the sceptic ones back then, are sceptical now. Yes more economists say it would be bad, but they didn't necessarily mean they are right, there are still plenty saying the opposite. They completely missed the crash of 08 even though some who were shouted down DID predict it. But more so economics isn't a science so nobody can ever truly know. But it's about more than the economy to most people. Something remain have really dropped the ball on with firing all their trump cards so fast. I honestly think alot of the "project fear" has been Cameron calling in favours from his buddies and contacts as much as genuine concern for the poor people of the UK. I mean the"facts" they have provided about precisely how worse off we will be etc are just blatant lies. If the benefits of the EU were really so good, it should have been a far easier sell for them than it is. I don't think a brexit would be an overnight improvement. But in 30 years I can honestly see us looking back and thinking it was a good decision overall and that we have benefited from it should that be the way we go. |
I get annoyed with the "project fear" label as both campaigns are horribly guilty of scaremongering and spreading misinformation that just confuses people. Anyway, I'll try and tackle your points in order:
1. More countries will eventually join the EU, but many of them won't be for a long while. Turkey for instance is incredibly far away from joining as they barely even meet a single pre-requisite to joining. The earliest any of them could join is 2019 as in 2014 the EU basically said they're not accepting anyone for 5 years. Juncker even said that Ukraine (who set a target of joining in 2020) were 20-25 years away.
2. I'm not sure how having a full breakup of the EU would be good. It would lead to a massive recession across the continent as investment dried up and complete economic instability took over. Even Greece, with all the horrible enforcing of austerity on the Greek people see's the EU as a better option (albeit reformed).
3. The experts did not say we should join the Euro. This is a re-writing of history by the Leave campaign considering the majority of economists said the UK joining the Euro would be a bad thing. Even the UK Treasury said joining the Euro would be detrimental. These same economists are now saying we'll be worse off in the event of a Brexit, certainly in the short-term (approx. 10 years) and likely in the long-term. Their actually aren't that many saying the opposite. It's around 90% of economists with a wide range of economic models and assumptions that say we'll be worse off. Even the models that say we'll be neutral or better off make some very specific assumptions (e.g. mass de-regulation, getting greatly beneficial trade deals outside the EU and keeping free movement of people).
Also, it's not quite the same as predicting the crash of 2008 which many of them didn't see coming. We're looking at very specific circumstances with a Brexit with a lot more known variables.
Furthermore, by experts, I don't just mean economists. I'm talking about people from a whole range of different industries that both campaigns seem to have forgotten about. For instance, in my own sector (science and technology), leaving the EU would have a detrimental effect on our ability to influence research direction, reduce funding for collaborative academic projects overseen by the EU, reduce the ability of industry startups to get funding and collaborate with experts across the continent, and seriously dent their ability to get skilled workers who may have niche skills that are exceedingly rare in the UK alone.
Anyway, sorry for the wall of text. I do kind of wish the politicians would just shut up for the last couple of weeks and the media would just concentrate on the views of people and groups outside the political spheres. No surprise, but there was this article in the Independent today that shows most people are still ignorant of the facts concerning the EU:
Scoobes said:
Furthermore, by experts, I don't just mean economists. I'm talking about people from a whole range of different industries that both campaigns seem to have forgotten about. For instance, in my own sector (science and technology), leaving the EU would have a detrimental effect on our ability to influence research direction, reduce funding for collaborative academic projects overseen by the EU, reduce the ability of industry startups to get funding and collaborate with experts across the continent, and seriously dent their ability to get skilled workers who may have niche skills that are exceedingly rare in the UK alone. Anyway, sorry for the wall of text. I do kind of wish the politicians would just shut up for the last couple of weeks and the media would just concentrate on the views of people and groups outside the political spheres. No surprise, but there was this article in the Independent today that shows most people are still ignorant of the facts concerning the EU: |
See now I can see why you are in favour of remain particularly for science. I can see that field having negative drawbacks. Ironically considering the above on economists, I'm a business graduate and work for a financial company based in Leeds, but I live in the North and have seen a side to the EU many have been sheltered from in other places.
I'm not going to rebut what you have put for your main post because what you put could well be true. I believe things would pan out differently, i.e. with the currency devaluations etc. Countries could get themselves into better long term financial positions etc and have actually reduced hardship in the future. This is unknown either way, all the models are based on the past, yet most of our more recent issues have been unprecedented making it impossible to argue either way.
I agree both sides have been at best stretching the truth. My views how how the UK could be more successful outside the UK thankfully aren't guided by their bizarre claims and assertions. I could go into a lot more detail as to why I think the way I do but it would create a ridiculous wall of text and I don't particularly disagree with how you have reached your outcome to vote remain.
The lack of understanding of the EU from so many people (particularly the more vocal ones I know) in both camps is rather alarming. I did actually at least study about the EU whilst at university. I was actually very pro EU up until a couple of years ago. It is their mishandling of various crisis and complete contempt for what the European population are telling them that has swung me. In fact, I only firmly decided I was voting Brexit this week.
As for the bolded, you only wish they would shut up for a couple of weeks? XD
RIP Dad 25/11/51 - 13/12/13. You will be missed but never forgotten.
MikeRox said:
See now I can see why you are in favour of remain particularly for science. I can see that field having negative drawbacks. Ironically considering the above on economists, I'm a business graduate and work for a financial company based in Leeds, but I live in the North and have seen a side to the EU many have been sheltered from in other places. I'm not going to rebut what you have put for your main post because what you put could well be true. I believe things would pan out differently, i.e. with the currency devaluations etc. Countries could get themselves into better long term financial positions etc and have actually reduced hardship in the future. This is unknown either way, all the models are based on the past, yet most of our more recent issues have been unprecedented making it impossible to argue either way. I agree both sides have been at best stretching the truth. My views how how the UK could be more successful outside the UK thankfully aren't guided by their bizarre claims and assertions. I could go into a lot more detail as to why I think the way I do but it would create a ridiculous wall of text and I don't particularly disagree with how you have reached your outcome to vote remain. The lack of understanding of the EU from so many people (particularly the more vocal ones I know) in both camps is rather alarming. I did actually at least study about the EU whilst at university. I was actually very pro EU up until a couple of years ago. It is their mishandling of various crisis and complete contempt for what the European population are telling them that has swung me. In fact, I only firmly decided I was voting Brexit this week. As for the bolded, you only wish they would shut up for a couple of weeks? XD |
Well, if they could shut up for longer then that would be ideal!
You are certainly one of the more informed people I've spoken to about the topic and even though we disagree, I can at least understand where you're coming from. The EU in recent years certainly hasn't helped itself or its image. It's actually nice to be able to have a proper debate on the topic rather than grumbling over regurgitated rhetoric.
bonzobanana said:
I'm not sure how you've worked that out. The UK has a trading surplus with the rest of the world but a huge trade deficit with Europe and most of that trade deficit is with Germany. Because of this if Europe slaps on lets say a 10% duty on UK goods and the UK does the same with European goods the UK will benefit from a far larger amount of duty paid to it because of the trade deficit and most of this extra duty will come from Germany. More german companies than any other nation in Europe rely on exports to the UK. We like German cars. A huge number of German firms would need to downsize and some may even go out of business. Also if the value of sterling drops then UK exports become far more competitive and the buying power of the pound makes German cars far more expensive. A german car now that costs £30,000 could end up being close to £40,000 with a drop in value of sterling and additional duty. We will become like Australia where German cars are much rarer as they are uncompetitive with Japanese cars. German exports to the UK could drop significantly. I honestly don't understand how you think this would be an opportunity for Germany. The German economy will contract badly. It will contract more in Germany than anywhere else in Europe. Lets not forget the huge debt of Europe including the UK. http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/ Europe, the US and many other countries are building up huge debt. It won't be long before Greece, Portugal and Italy need bailing out again and I question whether the Germans will be willing to do that again. Both Germany and France have invested a lot in these countries although I question whether the word invested is really applicable here. It's just a plaster on a gaping wound. Having a mortgage and a newish car I'm paying for plus being single and financially stretched I will probably vote remain but by doing so I know I'm just delaying the shit hitting the fan so to speak. One thing I've learned over the years is the politicians of all countries are some of the most vile corrupt and stupid people there are. The EU project is just another layer of these parasites. |
Well we will see whats going to happen. Its all speculation at this point.
Nem said:
Eeeh? I'm pretty sure thats Germany.
Anyways, i think the future of europe is to unify more, not less. Divided we are weak. We only stand a chance of rivaling the other world powers economicly and politicaly if we unite. |
I said sane and reasonable.
When I look at Germany, I'm starting to see the same arrogance that lead them to start the First and Second World War. They are objectifying other countries and treating them like tools and pawns on their gameboard, not sovereign partners. Look at the immigrant crisis - they are violating and ignoring existing laws. Cause they are Germany - they don't give a f*** about laws if they don't like these laws. Now they are forcing the mandatory automatic distribution of migrants that they invited to Europe - despite no legal basis for this. They use political and economic blackmail to force other countries to deal with the consequences of their mistakes. Genuine spirit of European cooperation.
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| Scisca said: I said sane and reasonable. When I look at Germany, I'm starting to see the same arrogance that lead them to start the First and Second World War. They are objectifying other countries and treating them like tools and pawns on their gameboard, not sovereign partners. Look at the immigrant crisis - they are violating and ignoring existing laws. Cause they are Germany - they don't give a f*** about laws if they don't like these laws. Now they are forcing the mandatory automatic distribution of migrants that they invited to Europe - despite no legal basis for this. They use political and economic blackmail to force other countries to deal with the consequences of their mistakes. Genuine spirit of European cooperation. |
Don't mix up Germany or the general population and the german government. Merkel is under a lot of criticism here and the way she handled immigration is the reason why her party went from 40%+ in polls to just around 30%. Ironically, it was WWII guilt that pushed Merkel into embracing large numbers of immigrants without a plan. I'm pro-immigration leaning by the way. But the way Merkel handled this was desastrous. That "immigration deal" she reached with Turkey was just another case of her dropping the ball.
I thought Merkel was doing a decent job during her first and second term in office but right now? Hell no. The current immigration crisis (again: without any sort of plan), the resurgence of the far-right political wing in Germany, the Turkish President getting involved in german politics because Merkel depends on his mercy (to keep the borders shut), worsening of EU relationships (very pro-european guy here)... and all that because Merkel spontaneously said "we can do this!" when asked about immigrants from Syria and other countries. And after that she was too stubborn to aknowledge she made a mistake with that statement.
As for being more on-topic: What Europe really needs in my opinion is an actual, democratically elected Parliament that has actual power. Europe needs more democracy, not more than two dozen nation state governments battling it out. It's not the european people who are the problem. It's the political elite. I want Britain to stay but I can't blame the 50% who want to leave considering the current state of the union.
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