Scoobes said:
Maybe, but in the case of a Brexit vote they would be the only party capable of forming a majority vote and whipping the rest of the party in-line. Beside, all I want is a coherent plan that isn't just rhetoric spouted at the most opportune time. So far, from what i can see, the majority of legal avenues that would have the least negative impact on trade and our economy include: 1. Still contributing to the EU budget (but without a rebate) 2. Still having free movement of people 3. Still have to abide by all the EU regulations 4. Having no say on EU legislation as we do now The other option would be to only have a small selection of deals so we might not have to sign up to all of 1-3 or fall back to WTO rules, but in both cases we're then having to pay a lot more in trade tarifs and all the economic models suggest we'd economically be a lot worse off. |
Yeah I'm not going to say any it all of them won't happen.
But I do think there are just as many unknowns with remaining. Things which can change our current relationship whilst in the EU:
Additional countries joining which could dilute the money returned to the UK. Wales keeps getting told it'll be poorer for example, but it's current investment is only guaranteed until 2020 in the EU.
Very fragile economies requiring significant assistance from all EU members. There has been a lot of plasters slapped across problems to postpone them. Not just the migrant crisis (which was imposed despite many nations objections remember which questions vetos etc on other issues) but also how Greece has been dealt with.
I get what you mean about bojo and gove etc proposing more however I don't think they could really I highly doubt they could command a majority and they would have labour leave etc challenging it saying no that's not how it would go. I think a general election this year would be highly likely in the event of brexit. That would be when we would go to polls on the direction we would want to take outside the EU.
Another thing in the event of brexit is it could well be a catalyst for the full break up of the EU. It would be liberating for many of the hamstrung economies to finally be able to take the true steps they need to to fix themselves.
I might be completely wrong, but as I see it, what the Euro has allowed. Is for Germany to enjoy artificially low currency value anchored down by other countries in the EU who are suffering s a result.
On listening to experts, they are the same ones who said how left behind the UK would be if it didn't join the Euro. Many of the sceptic ones back then, are sceptical now.
Yes more economists say it would be bad, but they didn't necessarily mean they are right, there are still plenty saying the opposite. They completely missed the crash of 08 even though some who were shouted down DID predict it.
But more so economics isn't a science so nobody can ever truly know. But it's about more than the economy to most people. Something remain have really dropped the ball on with firing all their trump cards so fast.
I honestly think alot of the "project fear" has been Cameron calling in favours from his buddies and contacts as much as genuine concern for the poor people of the UK. I mean the"facts" they have provided about precisely how worse off we will be etc are just blatant lies. If the benefits of the EU were really so good, it should have been a far easier sell for them than it is.
I don't think a brexit would be an overnight improvement. But in 30 years I can honestly see us looking back and thinking it was a good decision overall and that we have benefited from it should that be the way we go.
Update: after JCB last week Dyson now also joining in on UK better out. So the business case is becoming increasingly split too. Remembering that these are big companies that trade with the EU
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36505735
RIP Dad 25/11/51 - 13/12/13. You will be missed but never forgotten.
