MikeRox said:
Yeah I'm not going to say any it all of them won't happen. But I do think there are just as many unknowns with remaining. Things which can change our current relationship whilst in the EU:
Additional countries joining which could dilute the money returned to the UK. Wales keeps getting told it'll be poorer for example, but it's current investment is only guaranteed until 2020 in the EU. Very fragile economies requiring significant assistance from all EU members. There has been a lot of plasters slapped across problems to postpone them. Not just the migrant crisis (which was imposed despite many nations objections remember which questions vetos etc on other issues) but also how Greece has been dealt with.
I get what you mean about bojo and gove etc proposing more however I don't think they could really I highly doubt they could command a majority and they would have labour leave etc challenging it saying no that's not how it would go. I think a general election this year would be highly likely in the event of brexit. That would be when we would go to polls on the direction we would want to take outside the EU.
Another thing in the event of brexit is it could well be a catalyst for the full break up of the EU. It would be liberating for many of the hamstrung economies to finally be able to take the true steps they need to to fix themselves.
I might be completely wrong, but as I see it, what the Euro has allowed. Is for Germany to enjoy artificially low currency value anchored down by other countries in the EU who are suffering s a result.
On listening to experts, they are the same ones who said how left behind the UK would be if it didn't join the Euro. Many of the sceptic ones back then, are sceptical now. Yes more economists say it would be bad, but they didn't necessarily mean they are right, there are still plenty saying the opposite. They completely missed the crash of 08 even though some who were shouted down DID predict it. But more so economics isn't a science so nobody can ever truly know. But it's about more than the economy to most people. Something remain have really dropped the ball on with firing all their trump cards so fast. I honestly think alot of the "project fear" has been Cameron calling in favours from his buddies and contacts as much as genuine concern for the poor people of the UK. I mean the"facts" they have provided about precisely how worse off we will be etc are just blatant lies. If the benefits of the EU were really so good, it should have been a far easier sell for them than it is. I don't think a brexit would be an overnight improvement. But in 30 years I can honestly see us looking back and thinking it was a good decision overall and that we have benefited from it should that be the way we go. |
I get annoyed with the "project fear" label as both campaigns are horribly guilty of scaremongering and spreading misinformation that just confuses people. Anyway, I'll try and tackle your points in order:
1. More countries will eventually join the EU, but many of them won't be for a long while. Turkey for instance is incredibly far away from joining as they barely even meet a single pre-requisite to joining. The earliest any of them could join is 2019 as in 2014 the EU basically said they're not accepting anyone for 5 years. Juncker even said that Ukraine (who set a target of joining in 2020) were 20-25 years away.
2. I'm not sure how having a full breakup of the EU would be good. It would lead to a massive recession across the continent as investment dried up and complete economic instability took over. Even Greece, with all the horrible enforcing of austerity on the Greek people see's the EU as a better option (albeit reformed).
3. The experts did not say we should join the Euro. This is a re-writing of history by the Leave campaign considering the majority of economists said the UK joining the Euro would be a bad thing. Even the UK Treasury said joining the Euro would be detrimental. These same economists are now saying we'll be worse off in the event of a Brexit, certainly in the short-term (approx. 10 years) and likely in the long-term. Their actually aren't that many saying the opposite. It's around 90% of economists with a wide range of economic models and assumptions that say we'll be worse off. Even the models that say we'll be neutral or better off make some very specific assumptions (e.g. mass de-regulation, getting greatly beneficial trade deals outside the EU and keeping free movement of people).
Also, it's not quite the same as predicting the crash of 2008 which many of them didn't see coming. We're looking at very specific circumstances with a Brexit with a lot more known variables.
Furthermore, by experts, I don't just mean economists. I'm talking about people from a whole range of different industries that both campaigns seem to have forgotten about. For instance, in my own sector (science and technology), leaving the EU would have a detrimental effect on our ability to influence research direction, reduce funding for collaborative academic projects overseen by the EU, reduce the ability of industry startups to get funding and collaborate with experts across the continent, and seriously dent their ability to get skilled workers who may have niche skills that are exceedingly rare in the UK alone.
Anyway, sorry for the wall of text. I do kind of wish the politicians would just shut up for the last couple of weeks and the media would just concentrate on the views of people and groups outside the political spheres. No surprise, but there was this article in the Independent today that shows most people are still ignorant of the facts concerning the EU:
