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Forums - Sales Discussion - January 2016 NPD Thread! PS4 #1

So PS4 230k
XB1 132k
Wii U 40k

 

^ those numbers included Vita and 3DS??????



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Boskabo said:
Farsala said:

1:The US numbers would get to VGchartz anyways.

2: ioi probably has NPD himself

3: NPD only does US, Canada, and Australia publically it seems, and 20 countrys in total to people who get NPD. While VGC is worldwide, pretty much every country.

The only thing NPD wouldn't want to do it is to simply save face. So while your reasons make sense, I don't think they are as sound.

1. Doesn't matter, it still can't be encouraged by the NPD for third parties to resell their private data. If NPD was seen as engaging the VGC community in a positive way future lawsuits could be affected. Inability to retain this data as private dooms the coperation, when the numbers are fair game their analysis and predictions are easily challanged by other firms.

2. Probably not. As far as I know, practically only NPD leaked numbers and conslusions based thereon (ranking implications) are altered post-NPD, not more general information. Beside, the agreement NPD subscribers have to sign would explicitely forbid the operation of VGC in a non-compete clause and a clause forbidding the general disclosure of numbers. Breaking this would have extremely serious legal repurcussions. We've seen how fast newegg folded despite their great legal reputation/standing.

3. NPD subscriptions is available on a per-country basis.

In general I don't think the points in your post attempt to reflect the way a cooperation would be expected to operate.

@bold Not trying to argue for it.

I was "just saying" :).



If PS4 is up exactly 20% YOY:
PS4 227k
XB1 130k
Wii U 40k
Total: 397k

If PS4+XB1+Wii U=402k:
PS4 230k
XB1 132k
Wii U 40k
Total: 402k

Top 10 worst NPDs for XB1:

1) 77,000 (May 2014)
2) 115,000 (April 2014)
3) 131,000 (July 2014)
4) 139,000 (May 2015)
5) 141,000 (Jan 2014)
6) 150,000 (Jan 2015)
7) 160,000 (Aug 2014)
8) 168,000 (Oct 2014)
9) 187,000 (Apr 2015)
10) 189,000 (Jul 2015)

So this month either takes the #3 or #4 spot. Ouch.



Farsala said:

@bold Not trying to argue for it.

I was "just saying" :).

Fair enough, just trying to argue why NPD wouldn't engage the VGC community on my end. We should try to convince them use an outlet acceptable for them (and discuss maybe why they would be acceptable for them).

Farsala said:

So PS4 230k
XB1 132k
Wii U 40k

 

^ those numbers included Vita and 3DS??????

Yes, the statement by NPD is:

“In January 2016, however, the sales of [current] generation consoles declined by 8 percent, despite relatively flat unit sales, as average prices dipped by 6 percent as a result of price cuts that took place between January 2015 and January 2016.”

http://venturebeat.com/2016/02/11/january-2016-npd-xbox-one-ps4/

So the 8% includes the 3DS/Vita decline. The lifebringer is negible anyway, so we'd need the 3DS number for firm conclusion. But as mentioned, the most important conclusions are true regardless (PS4 :XB1 == 2:1, WiiU down 50%). It's really quite remarkable this month is a repeat of the first XB1/PS4 January, where the bottom dropped out for Microsoft. It'll be interesting if February will confirm this or if this dip  is an irregularity.

I'd expect a 350 $ Halo 5 bundle any minute now... (Well, I did before launch too, so don't hold your breath.)



Boskabo said:
Farsala said:

So PS4 230k
XB1 132k
Wii U 40k

 

^ those numbers included Vita and 3DS??????

Yes, the statement by NPD is:

“In January 2016, however, the sales of [current] generation consoles declined by 8 percent, despite relatively flat unit sales, as average prices dipped by 6 percent as a result of price cuts that took place between January 2015 and January 2016.”

http://venturebeat.com/2016/02/11/january-2016-npd-xbox-one-ps4/

So the 8% includes the 3DS/Vita decline. The lifebringer is negible anyway, so we'd need the 3DS number for firm conclusion. But as mentioned, the most important conclusions are true regardless (PS4 :XB1 == 2:1, WiiU down 50%). It's really quite remarkable this month is a repeat of the first XB1/PS4 January, where the bottom dropped out for Microsoft. It'll be interesting if February will confirm this or if this dip  is an irregularity.

Vita sold a ton last january for Vita though.

PS4 ~189k
XBO ~150k
3DS ~74k
Wii U  ~62k

Vita+ Vita TV ~ 35k

510k so if flat the split is 510k with most going to PS4 since all else are down yoy and Vita basically 0.



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So... Xbox One got bodied. Everyone, thanks for coming by. Join us next month on NPD @ VGC. Get home safely everyone and have a good evening.



Farsala said:

Vita sold a ton last january for Vita though.

PS4 ~189k
XBO ~150k
3DS ~74k
Wii U  ~62k

Vita+ Vita TV ~ 35k

510k so if flat the split is 510k with most going to PS4 since all else are down yoy.

That's very interesting, that should be included. Thanks!

As a rough estimate until better numbers. The vita probably still sold some units, but at the same time the 3DS decline was more sever. AS such, I'll assume Jan 2016 Vita sales are 0. Obviously they are at least a few k, but we'll take that as convenient estimate for 3DS decline beyond the standard market decline of 8%.

Then total is 436k in 2015 (home+vita), so 401k after 8%. Then

PS4: 229.3k

XB1: 131.6k

WiiU: 40.1k

This also lines up with Cosmic's "at least 20%" when referring to the "impressive Year-over-Year growth" mentioned by Sony's PR. However, it is almost exactly this number which would be unlikely. So I'd expect the 3DS to be lower still  (in the above the estimate for the 3DS is 66.2k minus the numbers of Vitas sold). So that would mean the Vita is still alive and kicking



Ps4 sales good
XB1 sales bad
Wii U sales shocking.

February will be better though.



Boskabo said:
Farsala said:

@bold Not trying to argue for it.

I was "just saying" :).

Fair enough, just trying to argue why NPD wouldn't engage the VGC community on my end. We should try to convince them use an outlet acceptable for them (and discuss maybe why they would be acceptable for them).

Farsala said:

So PS4 230k
XB1 132k
Wii U 40k

 

^ those numbers included Vita and 3DS??????

Yes, the statement by NPD is:

“In January 2016, however, the sales of [current] generation consoles declined by 8 percent, despite relatively flat unit sales, as average prices dipped by 6 percent as a result of price cuts that took place between January 2015 and January 2016.”

http://venturebeat.com/2016/02/11/january-2016-npd-xbox-one-ps4/

So the 8% includes the 3DS/Vita decline. The lifebringer is negible anyway, so we'd need the 3DS number for firm conclusion. But as mentioned, the most important conclusions are true regardless (PS4 :XB1 == 2:1, WiiU down 50%). It's really quite remarkable this month is a repeat of the first XB1/PS4 January, where the bottom dropped out for Microsoft. It'll be interesting if February will confirm this or if this dip  is an irregularity.

I'd expect a 350 $ Halo 5 bundle any minute now... (Well, I did before launch too, so don't hold your breath.)

 

That's a revenue number. In fact the very next point says unit sales were relatively flat for current gen consoles. Please don't confuse the two as you did in the post above.

 

Also what you said about VGChartz having accurate US data is laughable given how much some of their data drastically differs from official data. 



ZhugeEX said:

That's a revenue number. In fact the very next point says unit sales were relatively flat for current gen consoles. Please don't confuse the two as you did in the post above. 

Well, that's embarrassing, didn't even read the quote I gave. 

ZhugeEX said:

 

Also what you said about VGChartz having accurate US data is laughable given how much some of their data drastically differs from official data. 

I don't think I said that. Do you have a quote? I specifically say "practically only NPD leaked numbers and conslusions based thereon (ranking implications) are altered post-NPD [on vgchartz]". This is from a post where I argue against someone that suggests vgchartz has NPD numbers.