First, let me say that I agree the game will sell well (over a million copies), and that it will almost certainly be a good game. With that said, please recognize that:

 1) There is no compelling evidence that any game, ever, in history, has moved 2 million+ systems.

2) You're suggesting that the game will move half as many systems as it's predecessor (MGS3) sold copies.

3) You're suggesting that MGS4 will sell almost 1.8x the number of copies as its predecessor (7 million instead of 4) even though it's on a system with approximately 1/15th the user base (At the time of MGS3's release, there were approximately 90 million PS2s in existance. I expect by the time of MGS4's release there will be around 6 million PS3s sold. Currently, the PS3 has 1/38th the install base).

Again, I totally agree the game is going to rock, but what you're suggesting is historically unprecedented, and in defiance of all solid evidence. I'll just leave it at that.

Well, when FF7 came out in Japan (january), the PS1 had less than a 12-million user base.  I'm using the March 1997 numbers for this (on this site).  It was 20 million by the time it was released in the US.  FF7 sold 9.72 million copies.  That alone should end this install base arguement.  FFX come out when around 20 million PS2s were owned (September numbers being inbetween the US and Japanese release dates).  It sold 7.95 million. 

So...

Final Fantasy VII:  12 million install base, 9.72 sold.

Final Fantasy X: 20 million install base, 7.95 sold.

Metal Gear Solid 1:  43 million install base, 5.51 million sold. 

Metal Gear Solid 2:  Over a 20 million install base (came out 2 months later), 5.56 million sold. 

Gran Turismo 1:  32+ (month early) million user base, 10.85 million sold.

Crash Bandicoot 1:  8.06 user base, 6.76 million sold.

Grand Theft Auto 3:  20+ million user base,  11.60 million sold.

Even if MGS4 keeps to a 4:1 ratio, it will obviously sell 1 million copies (as someone predicted it wouldn't).  The install base will be quite a bit higher when MGS4 comes out than it is now.  A lot of the games listed show that the install base doesn't directly tell you how well your game is going to sell.  If the game is great, it will sell.

Yes, it very well could.  I hope my previous post puts to rest these install base worries.  But it doesn't need to be close to 30%, seeing as the install base will be quite a bit higher by then.

I'll concede to that. The install base will be higher, and I do think MGS4 is a system seller for the PS3, as should be FFXIII.

First, the problem with this logic is obvious: these sytems went on to be the best selling systems of their generation. Grand Theft Auto III, for example, sold copies over the entire course of the PS2's life. It isn't just how many systems are sold when the game technically releases, it's how many are sold over time. For many games this isn't relevant: for these franchises in particular -- which are almost unquestionably the most important franchises for the PS's success -- they continue to sell long after their initial release. In other words, a person who purchased a PS2 for Final Fantasy X (as an example) would often pick up GTA, now that they have the system.

Note that Grand Theft Auto 3 and MGS2 came out at approximately the same time, yet GTA sold twice as many copies as MGS did.

Second, note that Gran Turismo came out during the same time frame as Final Fantasy, in your chart. That was the best selling game on the Playstation 1 by a significant margin. Your suggestion that this jump in sales is contributable to Final Fantasy exclusively is patently absurd. I'd say at least as many -- if not more -- bought the system for Gran Turismo, and another group bought it for other games not listed here. Final Fantasy VII was a big hit, and so was the Playstation 1, no question. Can you give me any seroius evidence showing that Final Fantasy VII sold 5+ million Playstations, and not, say, Gran Turismo, or Spyro (also in the same time frame), or any other game important to the system?

Lastly, can you show me who predicted that MGS4 won't sell 1 million copies? Just point it out to me. Just quote it please. Thanks.

What you've shown me suggests, most importantly, that Final Fantasy, Gran Turismo, and Grand Theft Auto all sell more systems than MGS does.  

Right. Again, a big problem. With extremely important titles such as MGS4, two things about the system determine its sales:

1) How many systems were sold when the game came out?

2) How many systems were sold at the end of the system's life cycle?

The number of systems sold will undoudtedly be lower this time around than it was with MGS3: and I don't think anyone here is seriously suggesting that PS3 will have as large an install base as the PS2 did (even if it does end up "winning.") The games you mentioned were all on the most popular system of their generation. MGS4 almost certainly will not be. MGS4 will need to be a significantly better game than MGS3, to sell better than its predecessor, as MGS3 had a larger installed base when it was released and (again, almost certainly) will have a larger installed base once the life cycle has finished. 

Windbane, I think you misunderstand how "system seller" works with games. No one doubts that Final Fantasy VII (as an example) had a significant influence on many of the people who eventually bought a PS1. In my experience, most people buy systems because there are 3-4 games they want to play.  I'd bet a lot of people who bought a PS1 in 2000 bought one, in part, so that they could finally play this FF VII game they've heard so much about -- and this Metal Gear game, and this Crash Bandicoot game, and this Spyro game, and so forth.

It's a much greater to feat to literally sell a system based on a single title alone. That is what you're looking for. Could MGS4 sell 2 million consoles? I highly doubt it. As I said, there's no evidence that any single game has done something like that. Could MGS4, Final Fantasy XIII, and Gran Turismo HD do so collectively? I think it's quite likely. Again, in other words, you're confusing "a game that strongly influences a person's choice of system" with "a game that people bought a system for exclusively."

Look, I'm not sure how you interpret from what I said that I'm claiming that FF7 alone was responsible for the jump in sales.  It is obvious that it was large part in it, but nowhere did I say FF7 alone sold the PS1, or that any of the listed games sold the system "exclusively."

All I pointed out was that the initial install base does not dictate how well your game sells.  I think the PS3 will sell very well across its lifetime, an arguement we can have in another thread (although frankly I'd rather not on this forum, again).

As for the quote:  "That can't make the CFO happy. If the average Namco game requires 500,000 units sold to break even, I'd assume that 800,00 or 1,000,000 copies of MGS4 would be a reasonable assumption for the break-even point. At this point, the odds of selling considerably more than 1,000,000 copies are slim."  Turns out that was you.  Now, you saved yourself by saying "slim" but you are obviously suggesting it might not reach 1 million in sales.  I think that is absurd.

I think it's very likely that Halo and Halo 2 sold 2 million xboxes. I think Halo 3 has done the same. I think GTA IV will do the same. I think FF13 will do the same. Now, we can disgree, and really we'll never know if someone bought a system just for a game unless we get stats on which games were purchased with the console, but come on. I'm not saying MGS is the same as those franchises, but it was the 9th (and 22nd) highest selling game on the PS2 and 11th highest selling game on the PS1. It will sell a lot of consoles.

Also, as I've said, it will not be alone. There are a lot of great games coming for the PS3 (exclusively and multi-platform), including the previously mentioned FF and GT games.

Ok, you think Halo and Halo 2 sold 2 million Xboxes. Have any evidence? At all? Other than: "Meh, it seems likely?" I'd say that if you combined the two games, that's possible.

And I agree, MGS4 will not be alone. I'm not saying the PS3 won't move 2 million more systems during the MGS4 time frame. I'm saying it won't move 2 million systems based on MGS4 exclusively. That's what "system seller" means. I actually just went over this in my previous post: I explicitly and directly stated that other games are coming at the same time, and that if they are combined, you will see a large boost in sales. Read what you wrote, then read what you're replying to: I'm not entirely sure you're listening to me, because you're basically reiterating what I just said.