MGS4 on 360....maybe?

[Bodhesatva]

windbane said:

Dolla Dolla said:
Metal Gear Solid 3 only sold about 4 million copies, less than 5% of the PS2 userbase. Are we to assume MGS4 will sell to more than 30% of the PS3 userbase when it releases?

Yes, it very well could. I hope my previous post puts to rest these install base worries. But it doesn't need to be close to 30%, seeing as the install base will be quite a bit higher by then.

Right. Again, a big problem. With extremely important titles such as MGS4, two things about the system determine its sales:

 

1) How many systems were sold when the game came out?

2) How many systems were sold at the end of the system's life cycle?

The number of systems sold will undoudtedly be lower this time around than it was with MGS3: and I don't think anyone here is seriously suggesting that PS3 will have as large an install base as the PS2 did (even if it does end up "winning.") The games you mentioned were all on the most popular system of their generation. MGS4 almost certainly will not be. MGS4 will need to be a significantly better game than MGS3, to sell better than its predecessor, as MGS3 had a larger installed base when it was released and (again, almost certainly) will have a larger installed base once the life cycle has finished.