Bodhesatva said:
First, the problem with this logic is obvious: these sytems went on to be the best selling systems of their generation. Grand Theft Auto III, for example, sold copies over the entire course of the PS2's life. It isn't just how many systems are sold when the game technically releases, it's how many are sold over time. For many games this isn't relevant: for these franchises in particular -- which are almost unquestionably the most important franchises for the PS's success -- they continue to sell long after their initial release. In other words, a person who purchased a PS2 for Final Fantasy X (as an example) would often pick up GTA, now that they have the system. Note that Grand Theft Auto 3 and MGS2 came out at approximately the same time, yet GTA sold twice as many copies as MGS did. Second, note that Gran Turismo came out during the same time frame as Final Fantasy, in your chart. That was the best selling game on the Playstation 1 by a significant margin. Your suggestion that this jump in sales is contributable to Final Fantasy exclusively is patently absurd. I'd say at least as many -- if not more -- bought the system for Gran Turismo, and another group bought it for other games not listed here. Final Fantasy VII was a big hit, and so was the Playstation 1, no question. Can you give me any seroius evidence showing that Final Fantasy VII sold 5+ million Playstations, and not, say, Gran Turismo, or Spyro (also in the same time frame), or any other game important to the system? Lastly, can you show me who predicted that MGS4 won't sell 1 million copies? Just point it out to me. Just quote it please. Thanks. What you've shown me suggests, most importantly, that Final Fantasy, Gran Turismo, and Grand Theft Auto all sell more systems than MGS does. |
Look, I'm not sure how you interpret from what I said that I'm claiming that FF7 alone was responsible for the jump in sales. It is obvious that it was large part in it, but nowhere did I say FF7 alone sold the PS1, or that any of the listed games sold the system "exclusively."
All I pointed out was that the initial install base does not dictate how well your game sells. I think the PS3 will sell very well across its lifetime, an arguement we can have in another thread (although frankly I'd rather not on this forum, again).
As for the quote: "That can't make the CFO happy. If the average Namco game requires 500,000 units sold to break even, I'd assume that 800,00 or 1,000,000 copies of MGS4 would be a reasonable assumption for the break-even point. At this point, the odds of selling considerably more than 1,000,000 copies are slim." Turns out that was you. Now, you saved yourself by saying "slim" but you are obviously suggesting it might not reach 1 million in sales. I think that is absurd.
