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Dolla Dolla said:
Metal Gear Solid 3 only sold about 4 million copies, less than 5% of the PS2 userbase. Are we to assume MGS4 will sell to more than 30% of the PS3 userbase when it releases?

Yes, it very well could.  I hope my previous post puts to rest these install base worries.  But it doesn't need to be close to 30%, seeing as the install base will be quite a bit higher by then.