I like to get engaged in sales discussions about the future trending.
I like to make thread about that becuase I can eat crow late.

So this time is about the Japan sales of PS4 and Wii U.

1) A bit of history of previous years

Wii U

2013: 898.143
2014: 618.150

PS4

2014: 970.667

Not much to say here.

2) A bit of analyst of this year situation up to Week 25

Wii U (Up YoY)

2014: 508.552
2015: 603.578

Not much to say here.

Wii is trending to have a flat year even with the good bost it had these last weeks due Splaton.
But I'm a bit optimistics about the console so I think it will do less than 750k but better than last year 618k.

PS4 (Up YoY)

2014: 838.525
2015: 1.126.714

This is a bit hard because PS4 is down only because Feb was the launch time of the console where the most sales at this period come from 2014... all the weeks after the launch PS4 is up YoY over 50%.

Week 10 to Week 26:

2014: 210.486
2015: 328.369 (over 50% up)

That means that it will be up in four-six weeks and trend up for the rest of the year.

There is no doubt here PS4 will do over 1.5m this year in Japan at this rate... it will even do over that depending of the boost of big games like MGSV for example.

I will be conservative here... so > 1.5m is my prediction.

3) Finall lifetime sales at the end of 2015

Looking at my prediction you already can see what will happen...

Wii U: < 2.9 million
PS4: > 2.5 million

4) Future 3 million mark and when PS4 will pass Wii U

Both console will be reaching 3 million near March 2016 (one a bit before and other a bit after but the difference won't be bigger than 5 weeks if this trending continue to happen).

That said PS4 will mostly overcome Wii U in Japan in May 2016 if the trending continue the same.
If PS4 start to get a better boost due big games (MGSV again) then the things can happen early in 2016.

Well that it.

Now give me your trending/prediction/analyst of the console market in Japan.

PS. I left Xbone out due obvious reason.

BTW this is a thread like the old days in VGC to you see how the super amazing users did the things here before for good and real discussions... so be glad because I won't do that anymore for a serie of reasons (maybe one per year... maybe).

I predict PS4 at 1.25 million and WU at 750k in 2015.

By end of 2015 ( 3 January 2016 ):

[WIU] 2,950,000
[PS4 ] 2,250,000

I expect PS4 to pass Wii U in February 2017...

i predict nintendo hardware>sony hardware

monster hunter x , youkai watch 3 - 3 million seller
animal crossing , youkai buster - 2 million seller
dragon quest 8 - 1 million seller

big win for nintendo for overall hardware and software

I think you have a wrong way to say you're being optimistic and conservative.

thought the same - lol

ps4 will sell 1m + this year
but won't come close to 1.5m

the only next big hitter titel will be mgsV
what about the holiday season? last year sony got the dragon quest bundles

I thought I saw somewhere that according to MC WiiU LTD 2015 currently is higher than LTD 2014.

no, but close
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1069433

10k down ytd according to mc
20k down ytd according to famitsu
thanks to splatoon

th ps4 is 50/70k down so far.
thanks to front loaded launch sales

Which is amazing as last year it was the console's launch in Japan.

PS4 will sell more than Wii U this year, more than it did last year itself and it will pass Wii U in sales sometime in 2016 and not later. Or have we forgotten the array of JRPGs en route to the system with a strong possibility of DQ11 also being in production for it?

Yeah it means it's actually up and by quite a bit.

The guy on Nintendo thread didn't count the first week of the year... in both MC and Famitsu Wii U is down a bit you (10k).