If the system's launching in 2016, shouldn't dev kits be out there already?

Going by Iwata's latest quote:

"We can't talk about the NX, if we do, competitors may take our ideas and customers won't be surprised."

This tells me, Nintendo wants to shrink the reveal/release gap this time, I fully expect at least one iteration of NX (HH most likely) by late 2016.

I'm sorry, but do you not understand how business works?

Nintendo is making money with it. It's not a "flop". As long as they can keep a positive cashflow, as long as they make profit, they can keep the system out there. And as you say, there's not much 3rd party support... but that's been true since about 2 minutes after launch (and let's be honest, most of the companies that stopped supporting it properly had already started to do so before any sales numbers were known).

They have two options - rush the next system out, potentially facing the same troubles the Wii U is having, or take their time, tread water with the Wii U, and then release the next system when it's ready.

It's EXACTLY the same as the situation with their games. If the game isn't going to be ready, and as good as it can be, they delay the game. To rush the system out because the current one isn't performing to their internal expectations would be bad business, and if Nintendo actually do rush the NX out by early 2017, then Iwata should be fired.

If they'd done as you suggested back in the Gamecube era, which was the last time they could be said to have had a system that, by gamer reasoning (not business reasoning), was a flop, Nintendo would be dead right now. They'd have rushed out the Revolution when it was still half-baked, with a far inferior launch lineup and less impressive tech (including the wiimote's motion sensor functionality, which would have been of lower quality - and THAT alone would have destroyed the Wii's primary selling point), and the Wii would have been consigned to the dustbin of gaming history, not unlike the Dreamcast.

Besides which, if they're only just now starting to talk with third parties, then a 2016 release is just plain ludicrous. No matter what Nintendo is planning on doing with NX, third parties are going to need a comfortable 2 years to get their launch titles developed, because they also have to learn the basics of how to develop for the new system.

No, the logical expectation, here, is that Nintendo are planning the initial reveal at E3 2016, not unlike their E3 2011 reveal of the Wii U and their E3 2005 reveal of the Wii (then the "Revolution", which they had been speaking about since E3 2004). Then, a full reveal with games at E3 2017. Then a release at the end of 2017. Note that this is assuming no changes due to talks with third parties. If they make changes, the timeline shifts further out. And this is backed up by just about everything that has ever been said by anybody who knows what they're talking about (that is, people inside Nintendo, third parties, etc).

Meanwhile, Nintendo is also making efforts to ensure that they can comfortably ride out the Wii U. They've got their DeNA deal for mobile. They've got their Universal deal for theme parks. Amiibo is a big earner for them.

Things we know are coming, but aren't yet announced for Wii U, include an Amiibo-centric title, Tantalus's port, Pokken Tournament, and Retro's next game. And rumours add things like Diddy Kong Racing 2, Paper Mario U, Animal Crossing U (not the party game), Next Level Games' Wii U project, the "third-party partnerships" that Iwata referred to in the Shareholders' briefing.

There's more evidence, by the way. If Nintendo were planning on launching their next console in 2016, they would have held off on dropping Club Nintendo for their new loyalty program until its launch. Tanabe wouldn't have said that Metroid Prime wasn't feasible for Wii U if started now because it would take 3 years if the NX was launching in less than 2 years. He'd have said 2 years (if Metroid Prime isn't coming for Wii U, it's going to be at launch for NX). Miyamoto wouldn't be being reported as "taking a step back" on NX design - it would be past tense, because if it's releasing in 2016 or early 2017, they'd already have most of the system design completed.

All signs are that NX isn't coming until at least late 2017. The fact that you, as a gamer, think it needs to come earlier is entirely irrelevant. This isn't gaming, it's business.

Alright buddy, let me break this down for you.

- The WiiU is selling horribly. 

- Most of Nintendo's published games flop miserably on the system. With software sales being Nintendo's bread and butter this is a pretty big issue. 

- 3rd party don't want to support it. No 3rd party support = massive game droughts = pathetically low hardware sales = poor mindshare with the average consumer. 

- Amiibos are the one bright spot with the WiiU and it's success can easily be carried over to a new home console.

Nintendo is moving on my friend, they want greener pastures. I know you're a pretty big fan of the WiiU but it's time to accept the obvious that the system is on the way out. Why do you think Nintendo has so pathetically little to show for the console this E3? Because, and say it with me now, all of Nintendo's efforts are on NX. You can spin the WiiU's failure all you want but Nintendo is smart enough to realize that the thing is an albatross around their neck. NX is coming holiday 2016. Please understand. 

I think Nintendo learned too that they let it go on too long with the Wii U.

Having unvieled it at E3 2011, then another unveiling at E3 2012, and finally launch in fall 2012, stretched out everything to the point that there was little to no hype/enthusiasm for the machine by launch. Wii U should have launched in fall 2011. 

The reason they couldn't do that is because they had to make games for the 3DS launch window.

But if NX is a unified platform that shares games .... well there you go. That's not a hurdle any longer.

That's also a huge game changer which will facilitate a fall 2016 launch.

They have hardly done anything with third parties.... and when 3rd parties do not want to release on your platform, incentives need to be in place otherwise what happened to the wii-u and a couple of years in for the wii happens.

Yes I do expect them to start paying 3rd parties to make games for their systems, thats what MS/Sony do...