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Forums - Politics Discussion - BREXIT could cost the UK €300 billion

it's up to you brits to decide whether you wanna stay or leave.

i do think the way things are can't stay for long... so either we as europeans put nationalities aside and collectively opt to form a real federation or we might as well go back to the way things were way back when.

continuing to a federation solution would obviously mean the bigger economies would have to increase the solidarity to the weaker economies, much in the same way as the main bulk of the budget in a given country is generated in it's richer cities and then a part distributed to the least economically independent ones.

that's a pill that is hard to swallow for the electorate of the net contributors, but it's entirely up to them to balance out what they see as the more important goal.

isolation will have costs that probably outweigh the benefits that seem easier to comprehend for the more simpleton voter.

anyway, let's see what come of it. gl uk



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AnthonyW86 said:
Scoobes said:
AnthonyW86 said:
So the UK's economy would be 0.6% smaller by 2030 but cancelling the budget paymants alone would already save them 0.5% gdp right from the start? And that's just one saving. Sound like a great deal to me if you get all your souverinity back. And other country's would be cheaper off they say?

You realise a healthy economy is supposed to have its GDP increase over time, right? This would be a contraction at worst or stagnation at best. Either would be bad.

For comparison, the UK GDP has increased by over 70% since 2000-2013 (according to Google).


The UK economy would still grow just fine, it would just be 0.6% smaller by 2030 than if they hade stayed in the EU. So it's not a 0.6% shrink overall. And currently UK pays roughly 0.5% of it's GDP to fund the EU budget, and that budget will only get bigger in years to follow. And there are very big risks to UK's economy if they stay in the EU aswell. For example the banking taxes and other restrictions for the financial sector the EU is working on, witch would hurt London's financial centre hard.

Re-read it, and that 0.6% is their best-cae scenario. It could be anywhere from 0.6-14% according to them.

As for the financial sector, I very much doubt that'll happen and even if it does, London will be an exception. It brings in too much for that.



Ka-pi96 said:
setsunatenshi said:
it's up to you brits to decide whether you wanna stay or leave.

i do think the way things are can't stay for long... so either we as europeans put nationalities aside and collectively opt to form a real federation or we might as well go back to the way things were way back when.

continuing to a federation solution would obviously mean the bigger economies would have to increase the solidarity to the weaker economies, much in the same way as the main bulk of the budget in a given country is generated in it's richer cities and then a part distributed to the least economically independent ones.

that's a pill that is hard to swallow for the electorate of the net contributors, but it's entirely up to them to balance out what they see as the more important goal.

isolation will have costs that probably outweigh the benefits that seem easier to comprehend for the more simpleton voter.

anyway, let's see what come of it. gl uk

Yes please. IMO the sooner we become one giant European super nation the better

I honestly never thought I'd see anyone from the UK (or any EU country actually) support that. National identity tends to be quite strong in European countries thanks to the history we all have. The UK especially as we're also physically seperated from the rest of Europe.



Scoobes said:

It's educated guesswork though. Medium to large employers are less likely to setup bases in the UK (and more likely to move) if we leave for the simple reason it becomes harder to break through to the EU market, and other countries will give easier access (and in a few cases, better productivity). The idea that we'll have a better time of it negotiating from outside the EU is a joke at best considering the EU is the largest economic block in the world and therefore has a much stronger position at the negotiating table when it's all said and done.

In my own field in the sciences, leaving the EU makes it a lot harder to collaborate on major projects around Europe (scientific collaboration and subsequent output is less in non-EU countries, the UK currently punches well above its weight). This puts the UK at a major disadvantage in global sciences which has a knock on effect on the economy (for every £1 of investment in R&D, the economy benefits by £3 in 5 years due to the startup companies/industrial breakthroughs that form).

Even so, it might not be as bad as this study paints, but making a educated guess based on a full analysis of data is far better than the crappy sound bites the politicians try to ram down our throats.


Exactly how I see it. We are stronger together and I don't see the need to become so isolationist. For all it's flaws, I think the EU ultimately benefits us even if there are parts we don't like. That is just life really.

I'm only open to a new referendum so I (and many people I know who I suspect form a silent majority) can have our say to state we DO want to be part of the EU.



RIP Dad 25/11/51 - 13/12/13. You will be missed but never forgotten.

Ka-pi96 said:
setsunatenshi said:
it's up to you brits to decide whether you wanna stay or leave.

i do think the way things are can't stay for long... so either we as europeans put nationalities aside and collectively opt to form a real federation or we might as well go back to the way things were way back when.

continuing to a federation solution would obviously mean the bigger economies would have to increase the solidarity to the weaker economies, much in the same way as the main bulk of the budget in a given country is generated in it's richer cities and then a part distributed to the least economically independent ones.

that's a pill that is hard to swallow for the electorate of the net contributors, but it's entirely up to them to balance out what they see as the more important goal.

isolation will have costs that probably outweigh the benefits that seem easier to comprehend for the more simpleton voter.

anyway, let's see what come of it. gl uk

Yes please. IMO the sooner we become one giant European super nation the better


european here too first and foremost, i see my nationality as less defining of myself as the fact i am a european. no matter how proud a person can be of their individual country, collectively we are stronger and the birthplace of modern civilization. EU pride ;)



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I hope Europe lifts heavy embargos against the UK if this happens.



Ka-pi96 said:
Madword said:
Ka-pi96 said:
The Fury said:
The only ones who want out of the EU are the overly spoken. I mean you hear about Greece's far right a lot recently but not everyone else.

Our EU membership needs to remain, it's just the scaremongering being done by UKIP is louder than anything else.

If the general sensible people of the UK voted, we'd stay in the EU. Our issues don't come from there, it comes from our benefits system.

Agreed, that needs some serious sorting out. There's more problems than just that, but the EU isn't one of them.

That's not entirely true. The EU does give many benefits, but it is also extremely expensive and wasteful. I mean they make the UK parliment look like beginners with expenses. :)

I would rather stay in europe, but it needs modernising. It reminds me a bit of FIFA, kind of an old boys club who dont want to reform because they have it so good.

Yeah you do have a point. The EU does have problems as well, but it's in the UK's best interests to stay in and try to fix those problems than to just leave.

I wonder just how many of the EU's problems could have been avoided if it hadn't expanded so much and to countries with such weak economies (relative to the main European ones at least).

The problem with the EU is that they tollerate everything (from certain countries especially France) and are punishing others for not making an agreement where other countries get delays. The UK needed to pay a 2 billion tax because there economy grew in 2014, the Netherlands had to pay half a billion euro's while France recieved one billion euro's. The EU has become a help institute for the poor and by that becomes obnoxious to the strong economies in Europe, which have to pay and pay and pay. Yet they don't have any real influence on that countries policy's the EU should become more punishing towards countries that screw up. Take Greece for instance I would say if Greece doesn't have their crap in order within 6 months or haven't made any improvement an EU force should make a plan for them. If they don't agree to that plan they stop recieving money and will be kicked out of the EU. 

The EU should become more assertive and draw clear lines, which are for every EU member, saying Greece, Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Italy are to blame is not the whole story. Stupid policy's and untransparrent actions brought the EU where it is today, if EU's policy's where clear and if there were clear boundaries to economics and membership the EU would be much stronger and actually relevant instead of the weak uncertain market it is today.  



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

Not going to pretend I know a whole lot about this issue, as I only know from what I skimmed and then read through the comments. But when will this decision be made? Soon or in 2018? And what is the actual likelihood of UK splitting from the EU?



I watch the news everyday I'd I've never heard of Brexit before.



Ka-pi96 said:
setsunatenshi said:
it's up to you brits to decide whether you wanna stay or leave.

i do think the way things are can't stay for long... so either we as europeans put nationalities aside and collectively opt to form a real federation or we might as well go back to the way things were way back when.

continuing to a federation solution would obviously mean the bigger economies would have to increase the solidarity to the weaker economies, much in the same way as the main bulk of the budget in a given country is generated in it's richer cities and then a part distributed to the least economically independent ones.

that's a pill that is hard to swallow for the electorate of the net contributors, but it's entirely up to them to balance out what they see as the more important goal.

isolation will have costs that probably outweigh the benefits that seem easier to comprehend for the more simpleton voter.

anyway, let's see what come of it. gl uk

Yes please. IMO the sooner we become one giant European super nation the better


Europe is to diverse for thst to be honest, secondly swiss and norway wouldn't join. Neither would any country which doesn't have the Euro. Would you be glad to hand over the profit of the hard earned North Western economies to support the broke corrupted states even further. I don't want to see that happen since that would tore our continent appart even further. The EU must become more of what the EEC was a party for environmental care, economical colobration and control, controling migration and millitary defense nor shouldn't concern itself with every law made in each state it should lose it's big brother's attitude. The EU should set out a few clear lines to which countries need to obey to stay in the Union (rules about corruption, debt etc.).

It's also what UK wants these days 75% of your lws are delgated from EU policy's.



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar