Ryng_Tolu said:
A console in my opinion sell good with 30,000,000 lifetime. I predict XBO to sell just more than this (but less than 35,000,000 ) so yeah... A console with the mediocre sales... but not a flop. Any way, XBO is not a flop just thanks the super holiday. In the summer, XBO sales are terrible... and i don't know why people are sure that this year will be better than last year, considering that as for now is down YOY at 350$ VS 500$, so, when the battle will be 400$ VS 350$... is gonna to be very depressing.
Also, for who say "XBO is more succes than the XB360!"
|
XBO 2014 |
XB360 2011 |
Jan |
141,000 |
381,000 |
Feb |
258,000 |
535,000 |
Mar |
311,000 |
433,000 |
Apr |
115,000 |
297,000 |
May |
77,000 |
270,000 |
Jun |
197,000 |
507,000 |
Jul |
131,000 |
277,000 |
Aug |
160,000 |
308,000 |
Sep |
284,000 |
483,000 |
Oct |
168,000 |
393,000 |
Nov |
1,240,000 |
1,700,000 |
Dec |
1,290,000 |
1,700,000 |
LOL
|
This sounds reasonable, though I think it's fair to consider it a failure. I know Microsoft already has.
Think from their perspective. Go back and look at what they were trying to do over the years :
OG Xbox : Build a brand in the gaming space due to fear of machines taking over the PC market from the living room. Of course we know now this was a silly thing to think (Hello Google/Apple, Smartphones, Tablets, etc). But it did get their foot in the door in this space despite losing a ridiculous amount of money. So, with the market opened they follow with :
X360 : Well specced if somewhat riddled with reliability problems for a while, this exploded their market presence from an also-ran to a market leader in many cases. They gained market space in Europe, Asia, and became the strongest US/UK console for AAA gaming, as the Wii kind of petered out and had a ton of 'one-time-only' non-gaming buyers who just bought it for Wii Fit or Bowling. After many years of massive yearly losses in the Xbox project, they started seeing marginal profits (nowhere near enough to put them in the green LTD, but enough to be YoY profits).
X1 : They wanted to expand their current market status with this. That meant growing market share in the markets they had fought to open slightly with the 360 with Europe and Asia, and to expand their strongholds in the US/UK. Beyond that, they wanted to monetize everything home entertainment-wise with the X1. Focused advertising based on what the Kinect saw (products, number of people, items in sight, items tuned with the HDMI pass-through), and an always-online mentality that required XBLG to use all the common streaming services like Netflix/etc. Above all, controlling the sale of games to where they were in control of how you could play it and sell it (if at all) was meant to vastly increase their profits per user. At $499 it would be roughly breaking even unit for unit, and the huge R&D costs for the new controller, Kinect2, etc would be covered over time with their much larger piece of the global market. In case you forgot, almost EVERYONE thought X1 was going to dominate the PS4. There was so much hubris and arrogance steaming out of the Xbox division at the time that it was just unbelievable.
So what did we see with the 360? 80+ million global sales? What do you think MS planned on? Going by some of their interviews at the time, I think they honestly thought they were going to see that grow well past 100M for the X1. For that to work, every market would have to buy in further to the Xbox brand.
And what's happened?
Europe has been an overt disaster outside of the UK.
Japan and China were hopeless for them.
The UK scaled back bigtime vs. the 360 v PS3 splits
The US scaled back bigtime vs. the 360 v PS3 splits
As you say, they're not going to get anywhere even close to 80M again with the X1. I do think 40M is reachable, but that's around the best case scenario. They are already undercutting the PS4 on cost AND adding games, and still losing. Once PS4 lowers their price, it's kind of over. X1's big IP is Halo, and that presents them with a problem :
Halo 5 may be hurt a bit by the MCC issues, and the very rapid dropoff in playerbase of Halo 4 (the long term Halo fans didn't stick around for long). But more than that, Halo 5 only helps for holiday 2015. What next? There isn't another IP in sight with half the exclusive draw for them. Even if Halo 6 was rushed, it would be 2017 at the soonest before it hits the streets. So 2016+ is not going to be pretty. In many European stores the X1 section is either gone or relegated to a tiny spot. Japan is in the low triple digits weekly in range of double-digits.
ALL THAT SAID :
For the end user, the X1 can be anything BUT a failure. If you have fun with it, and feel you got your money's worth, then it's a WIN.
On the business side, it's already a disaster. All the hype about outpacing 360 is really stupid. 360 had a massive number of reasons that it started really slow for the first couple of years, so it's easy to outpace it for that period of time. But X1 is aimed squarely down, whereas the 360 took off like a rocket.