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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - prediction: Xb1 will reach 25 mil by the end of 2015.

Tachikoma on 19 January 2015

I predict 19.5m by end if year for xbox, 37m for ps4



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vivster on 19 January 2015

Actually I don't really know. It will certainly sell naturally more in its second year and Halo will be a big boost on top of that. Could very well reach 25m if Halo really hits off. I wouldn't bet on it though.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

S.T.A.G.E. on 19 January 2015
DerNebel said:

Also you should really explain how you think that whole thing is going to happen, where is it supposed to sell all these units? Cause outside the US and the UK the sales of the system have been miserable, do you expect sales to pick in those regions or do you expect most of 14 million to come from the US and UK? How is this going to work?


Exactly. MS needs their usual strong base to help them make it through the first quarter of the year because if they can beat their last year it will look better on their quota sheets. At $350 they aren't turning a profit either, so they have to be weary of how long they do it. Selling the Xbox One at $400 vs Sony at the beginning of the year with no new titles coming out until Q3 and Q4 isnt doing them any favors. 



iTechHeads on 19 January 2015

Not going to happen.
20 Million is my bet.



Eddie_Raja on 19 January 2015
Teeqoz said:
You think it'll double it's 2014 numbers?


Yeah and when PS4 will be bringing over twice the competition of the previous year?



Prediction for console Lifetime sales:

Wii:100-120 million, PS3:80-110 million, 360:70-100 million

[Prediction Made 11/5/2009]

3DS: 65m, PSV: 22m, Wii U: 18-22m, PS4: 80-120m, X1: 35-55m

I gauruntee the PS5 comes out after only 5-6 years after the launch of the PS4.

[Prediction Made 6/18/2014]

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Puppyroach on 19 January 2015

Maybe 20-21mn, but not more than that, which would still be amazing.



generic-user-1 on 19 January 2015

all depends on the us and uk. if the xbone can sale 12m+ there it is possible, i dont see it selling better in europe.
its unsexy and the falling euro makes big pricecuts costly...



Nirvana_Nut85 on 19 January 2015

With a price drop to $299.99 to coincide with the Halo 5 launch......possible. If not, I would say at best it reaches 21-22m.



" Rebellion Against Tyrants Is Obedience To God"

Landguy on 19 January 2015
DerNebel said:
teigaga said:

I personally would say 25m is the absolute max, 20m is certain in my opinion though
Reason being
New pricepoint: XBox only spent Nov and December at its 349 pricepoint, the majority of the year it was either more expensive or equal to PS4. We all saw how its sales exploded in November, obviously it was partially down to the big games (Halo MCC, COD, GTA)  and Holiday bump, but we saw its sales jump proportionally bigger then the PS4's due to the new pricepoint. On that basis alone its reasonable to expect things to be up YOY, throughout the majority of 2015 it will cheaper then the competition something Xbox was not last year.

Xbox is out in all regions, unlike last year where it didn't launch everywhere till Q3. A small but notable add to its sales being up YOY.

Big holiday momentum. We all saw how much big microsoft numbers were in Q4 and no one predicted them to be that high, it sold 6m in the second half of 2014.That is going to have a trigger effect on how it does during the beginning of this year, we all know that people don't just buy systems in a isolate manner they get what they're friends have. With the gains xbox had recently, it should snowball into better sales going forward, the system now has a positive buzz surrounding and is no longer the flop system with DRM.forced kinect etc. Of course with  COD/GTA/Halo/AC Unity/ Dragon Age/Far Cry all continuing to push hardware sales for the next month or so, I think its sales will be strong in Q1. 

Superior software line up over 2014. Last year Xbox Q1/Q2 had Theif (cross gen), tomb raider (a year old remaster), titanfall (cross gen) and Watch dogs (cross gen)at the very end of May. Compare that to this years line up consisting mostly of next gen exclusives: Dying Light, Evolve, Final Fantasy Type 0, Witcher 3, Batman Arkham Knight, Dead Island 2 and cross gen titles like Battlefield and Mortal Combat. In what world would sales not be up significantly at comparing the line ups. I'm assuming Evolve and Witcher 3 are big hits which isn't garunteed but if you want to keep up with gaming in the next few months you're gonna need either a PC, PS4 or Xbox One somethin that wasn't the case last year. 

Superior fall line up. Quantum break, Halo 5, Tomb Raider, Forz 6, The Division, StarWars Battlefront 3, Hitman (all next gen exclusives- probably plenty more yet to be announced, maybe even COD? unlikely but possible). I expect Microsoft to be just as competetive as they were this year and hit the 299 pricepoint during the holiday. 

I think across both PS4/X1 sales will explode, the most simple reason being developers have finally moved on from last gen so gamers will be forced to aswell.

You gave a good enough explanation for why the system should be up YoY, which I'd say nobody really tried to deny, but 25 million still seems to very much be stretching the realms of possibility. That would be an utterly insane YoY increase and kinda need Sony to just sit there and do nothing all year, which I find highly unlikely.

M$ has double the sales for the 2 months that we have data for in it's second year.  So, it doubled NOV and DEC which were launch months the previous year.

Why with all of the facts that teigaga stated (now world wide and price being 30-40% lower for most if not whole year) would the sales not be nearly double all year?  

Everyone seems to think that the PS4 should sell that well without any consideration to the obvious fact that the happy feelings towards the PS4 are now being matched by the XB1(in the US anyway).  IF the XB1 is cheaper than the PS4 and no longer has the stink on it like it had last year, it should bump into the same sales area as the PS4 of 2014.  That doesn't mean the PS4 can't sell 3 million more than it did last year and still increase it's lead though... 



It is near the end of the end....

DerNebel on 19 January 2015
Landguy said:

M$ has double the sales for the 2 months that we have data for in it's second year.  So, it doubled NOV and DEC which were launch months the previous year.

Why with all of the facts that teigaga stated (now world wide and price being 30-40% lower for most if not whole year) would the sales not be nearly double all year?  

Everyone seems to think that the PS4 should sell that well without any consideration to the obvious fact that the happy feelings towards the PS4 are now being matched by the XB1(in the US anyway).  IF the XB1 is cheaper than the PS4 and no longer has the stink on it like it had last year, it should bump into the same sales area as the PS4 of 2014.  That doesn't mean the PS4 can't sell 3 million more than it did last year and still increase it's lead though... 

If you start your post with something that is blatantly wrong then I have a really hard time taking you seriously.