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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Nintendo shouldn't release a new console earlier than PS5.

Some of you are watching sales and not profit. Production cost is down, and it is selling for a profit.
Uninformed user: "Drop the Wii U and release a new console or you're doooooooooooomed!"
Informed user: "That's a dumb idea, they just started to make money off of it and a lot of big games are still on the way, dropping it now would be retarded!"
I do not believe the Wii U has peaked just yet either, I think 2015 will be its peak year for 1 reason. No dorughts. It would have been this year but those months between MK8 and HyWA were too much. If Every single first party game comes out once every month next year along with each providing a 2week boost then 2015>2014. Eventually those boost will lead to a slightly higher baseline.



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Experimental42 said:
fatslob-:O said:
 

As per Nintendo's next home platform having a "short life" that's arguable ... 

I don't even see the PS5/Xbox 4 coming out until 2022 so Nintendo releasing a new console in 2017 or even 2016 doesn't seem like a bad idea when it gives them another chance to catch up with the competitors in terms of hardware capabilities to give more incentives for 3rd party developers to release their games on that platform and another chance to garner a better image with some important characteristics of differentiation in comparison to the current HD twins ... 

Sure the WII U maybe profitable but I think the best course of action for Nintendo is releasing a new console instead supporting an old one that's plateauing ...

I seriously doubt the PS5 is going to be released so late. The jump this gen was tiny in comparison to last, and both PS4 and XB1 were already behind mid range computer rigs at launch, compared to the PS3 which was a beast on release.

Also you can't say the Wii U is plateauing when it's still increasing YoY, especially with its biggest year (release-wise) about to start. Even then, as long as the plateau is profitable, it's better then wasting all that R&D on a console that will be rendered garbage a year or two later.

The Wii U has quite a bit left in the tank: Mario, Zelda, Metroid, Starfox, Xenoblade, Crossovers/Second-party support, price drops, and new IPs/Spin-offs mean the Wii U will continue to be profitable for a long time. Nintendo is still learning about new modern development too.

Also, if you announce a new console, the profits still to be made from the Wii U will shrivel up and die. Which would be a shame, especially with the amiibo being a success and the Wii U being up YoY again in 2015.

 

I stand by my claim: Keep turning profits, use the Wii U to practice HD, online, and DLC. Use the best of the Wii U as HD remake fodder to bolster your next console's launch year like TLoU, MCC (it tried), or GTA5. Use those profits to make a strong online infrastructure, a better eshop, better virtual console, crossbuy, better account system, and then make a box that's on equal footing with Sony.

Agree with bolded, however if a console is released in 2017 I doubt it would be garbage after 2 years. I don't even see Sony releasing a console until 2020, so that would effectively give them 3 years. Not to mention cross gen games that BARELY look any better on next gen consoles (especially if Nintendo does decide to put out a pretty powerful console that would for all intents and purposes be a PS 4.5) that would last until 2021, which would give Wii U 4 years at it's earllest before the hardware could effectively be showcased as weak. That would only be around 2~3 years before they release their next console, and a great time to start rumors on the next consoles development. It would hit mid gen with a more powerful console which I think would bring players in when most are seeking out their second console. Their options would then be a console that is slightly better or worse, or one that is half a gen better! The problem is being more transparent about what is being released. I guarentee you there is more in store for 2015, so why are they keeping it a secret? Pretty much because it's tradition, and it's good when you're the highest selling console, but not when you're trying to find an audience.

AS for the last paragraph, half of what you wrote isn't even a problem. Online infrastructure? What's wrong with the Wii U's? Virtual console? It's great on the Wii U! What exactly is wrong with the eshop that would need years to accomplish?

I do agree with cross buy though, and having a better account system (which the only thing wrong with the account system is no cross buy, so they are technically the same issue). Let's not make things up that aren't issues.



Aquietguy said:
MoHasanie said:
The Wii U is in its peak years and is performing so poorly. PS5 will come out in 2019 so I doubt Nintendo would wait that long.

I agree with the author on this. There is no need for Nintendo's next console until the PS5 and XBox2. The U is doing fine and will continue it's sells trend. There will be price drops making it more attractive to non Wii U owners. All Nintendo has to do is bring the games. And make sure they increase develpoment teams to make sure they have games ready for the Wii U successor.


This isn't really true tho. Its doing better than last year for sure, but between how bad last years sales were, and the release of what are likely to be Nintendo's biggest console games of the generation, that should be the case. If this was the start of a climb then things might be looking better, but this is more likely the peak of Wii U sales.



Nintendo shouldn't release any console at all, they should finish wiiu support in a year or two and transition to PS/Xbox/Pc so they are ready and capable for the 9th gen.



DélioPT said:
It really shouldn't come out sooner than the next PS or XB, but that's not the issue.
Problem is that Nintendo will be forced to do so sooner than it probably expected to.
Last gen was one of a kind and probably lasted so long because 2 of the main players for the 3rd party community had no rush to release consoles when they still had to recoup from their losses even years after launch.
So, with no news of a new console, gamers had no option other than stick with 360 and PS3 for more than they anticipated aswell.

Wii U has none of the above: no 3rd party support; no consumer support.
Sales will go down fast after Zelda, not just because the main hitters will have arrived already but because Nintendo will decrease it's support in preparation of the new gen.
Sony and MS can afford to decrease support because of 3rd parties. When Nintendo does it... well, just look at how their release schedule for Wii was like in 2011 and 2012.
In 2011 they released Zelda and Wii Play 2. That was it. And in 2012... nothing.

How will they keep Wii U alive if the Wii situation repeats itself?

Thats where increasing deveoplment studio's come in. Nintendo said its not that easy to do that going from Wii to Wii U. They should be in the procceses making that happen now so they can support the U while also getting games lined up for their next console. Again, as the U gets more games and the price drops there will be more and more on the fence people willing to buy one. Just get the studio's to make the games and not spend too much time on getting third parties.



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FayeC said:
Aquietguy said:
MoHasanie said:
The Wii U is in its peak years and is performing so poorly. PS5 will come out in 2019 so I doubt Nintendo would wait that long.

I agree with the author on this. There is no need for Nintendo's next console until the PS5 and XBox2. The U is doing fine and will continue it's sells trend. There will be price drops making it more attractive to non Wii U owners. All Nintendo has to do is bring the games. And make sure they increase develpoment teams to make sure they have games ready for the Wii U successor.


This isn't really true tho. Its doing better than last year for sure, but between how bad last years sales were, and the release of what are likely to be Nintendo's biggest console games of the generation, that should be the case. If this was the start of a climb then things might be looking better, but this is more likely the peak of Wii U sales.

I just can't see this as peak. It's still selling at $300.  We knon price drops will come. There are alot of people on the fence. Some will adopt at $250. Others will at $200. By then the games will be there and we don't know all the games lined up. We got Captain Toad and Splatoon is coming. Both are new IP's. We still don't know what they have up their sleaves. Nintendo needs to ride out the U until the next round of consoles. And they can cause it will be viable till then.



Aquietguy said:
FayeC said:
Aquietguy said:
MoHasanie said:
The Wii U is in its peak years and is performing so poorly. PS5 will come out in 2019 so I doubt Nintendo would wait that long.

I agree with the author on this. There is no need for Nintendo's next console until the PS5 and XBox2. The U is doing fine and will continue it's sells trend. There will be price drops making it more attractive to non Wii U owners. All Nintendo has to do is bring the games. And make sure they increase develpoment teams to make sure they have games ready for the Wii U successor.


This isn't really true tho. Its doing better than last year for sure, but between how bad last years sales were, and the release of what are likely to be Nintendo's biggest console games of the generation, that should be the case. If this was the start of a climb then things might be looking better, but this is more likely the peak of Wii U sales.

I just can't see this as peak. It's still selling at $300.  We knon price drops will come. There are alot of people on the fence. Some will adopt at $250. Others will at $200. By then the games will be there and we don't know all the games lined up. We got Captain Toad and Splatoon is coming. Both are new IP's. We still don't know what they have up their sleaves. Nintendo needs to ride out the U until the next round of consoles. And they can cause it will be viable till then.


Price drops will help sales for a few weeks, but after a short time they will fall back to what they were before the price drop, this time with less profit per unit. While we don't know the full game lineup, we can assume with a reasonable degree of certainty that its nothing near Mario Kart or SSB in sales potential.

I'm pretty sure the month SSBB's release still holds the NPD record for the all time high console sales in a non holiday month, so its sales potential is not to be taken lightly. I atribute the major difference between last holiday's Wii U sales and this years to it, rather than some sort of new baseline.



Experimental42 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
Without third party the Wii U's development cycle cannot sustain itself past 2018. NIntendo kind of has to take the dive. They will need to be in touch with third party and find out how much power the next gen consoles will need so they wont get alienated.


They've already found a way to support the Wii U indefinitely, and have outlined it.

1) Nintendo has finally learned HD development which cuts down crippling delays.

2) Asset creation is being outsourced to third parties, which cuts dev time significantly.

3) Existing assets are being used in new ways. Captain Toad was developed in less than a year, at a fraction of the cost, and looks absolutely amazing. More will come. Expect more Mario characters to get their own adventures with the "spinoffs" Nintendo was talking about. This isn't a new process either, Majora's Mask was done the same way and shows it can be successful and extremely profitable.

4) Nintendo is opening first party properties to third party developers, which is also known as second party games. Did you ever imagine another company making a console Zelda title with free reign? Bandai got to be a big part of the latest Smash Bros and will likely be a huge part of the franchise going forward thanks to Sakurai being done.

5) Nintendo is rescuing projects that have gone over budget or lost funding. We keep hearing there's at least two more we don't know about, one of which is likely Shadow of the Eternals (semi-sequel to Eternal Darkness) which Nintendo owns key elements too. rescuing projects like these not only nets Nintendo exclusive games on the cheap, but improves relations with the third parties releasing said games.

There's also a huge library of games waiting for HD ports too. HD ports are widely accepted now, and there are many games that would be easy to improve and rerelease. Twilight Princess, Mario Galaxy 1/2, Xenoblade, Skyward Sword, any of the Mario Sports games, etc.


Nintendos development time has always been lower and cheaper than most companies. Thats not what I am talking about. Nintendo selfishly makes their consoles powerwise with only their ends in mind. Third parties are only ignoring them because not only is the fanbase weak but the console is weak as well. Its a simple fix really. All they have to do is listen to the third party. Nintendo doesnt listen to anyone but themselves.



Nintendo is in a rough spot. With an under powered console, they have two options. Release early with a slightly more powerful machine than PS4 or X1 just to try to get a jump on people who are eager for an upgrade at the time (we see how this worked with he original XBox and again with the WiiU). Or wait it out and continue to profit what they can through new software with the WiiU and try to Pull a Sony along side of the other consoles (Hardware and price advantage).

Either one of these will be hard for Nintendo because they will have to bring in a new gimmik to give it an identity separate from the competition (which can be very hit or miss), or win back third party support with option two. Third party support won't be hard to win back if many own the console, this is a proven fact. Consoles sold equals potential software sales, and none of the giants will be able to ignore sales across three platforms rather than two. The real challenge is winning the fanbase back, which at this point is easier said than done when you look at Nintendo console sales as a whole (excluding the Wii) and see that they have been on a decline since the Super Nintendo.

I think the best option for the WiiU is a combination of the two, a hybrid if you will. They need to lay low and wait it out while developing a gimmik for their console, and work on power and pricing. This way their first party will have features unique to the console for its already strong first party line up, and full functionality with multiplat games as well. I doubt price and power alone will save Nintendo next gen, they already did this with the GameCube and it failed compared to the competition. Nintendo can't survive off of gimmiks and 1st party alone either, we see that now with the WiiU. The only thing that will get the ahead next gen is being patient and putting ALL cards on the table while hoping for the best.



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Experimental42 said:

You just made my point. You think the PS1 and PS2 are the "early" release consoles. They're not. The Saturn and Dreamcast came out earlier than both respectively and were killed by all the following consoles. There's a precedence for early consoles being killed just as I predict will happen if Nintendo releases a new console early.

I'll say it now, if Nintendo releases a new console that's stronger than the PS4, Sony will show off conceptual art for a PS5 game within the month. Just like they did with the bullsh*t old man demo to show off PS2's graphics and how much more powerful it was than the Dreamcast.

The XB360 was only successful because the PS3 release was almost as stupid as the XB1 launch. They charged 500 dollars, had crappy online, it sucked to develop for, and had vastly inferior ports.

What do you thinks's going to happen? Third parties will go to Nintendo's obvious dead duck early release console? Or will they do what they did with the PS3/360/WiiU where Wii U got inferior multiplat support despite being stronger? I really doubt they'll put the extra effort in to make a better looking game for ONLY Nintendo, especially when most can't even be bothered to make a PC version that isn't complete garbage on release.

Release with the others, share the common architecture, have roughly the same power, and you will guarantee multiplat support for the entire generation. It's the biggest flaw with the Wii U, and an early release console is subject to the SAME issue.

Releasing at the same time could work for them but it would be far more work What they can't do is release after which is what your OP seems to be suggesting ''Wait until the specs for next gen PS/XB are hammered out and then focus on making a box on par with them. ''

Both saturn and Dreamcast were killed by segas poor management.The saturn was launch a disaster dropping e system out of nowhere and it completely lacked  in software in a way which isn't comparable to any launch we've seen in recent memory. The Dreamcast suffered from Sega's previous failure as well as the inevitable dominance of the PS2. Again PS2 had all of the third party exclusives which really mattered at the time (GTA, Final Fantasy, Tekken, Metal Gear Solid, Pro Evo). Dreamcast, Gamecube and Xbox were all destined for sub 30m sales as long as most developers sided with sony. Take a second to imagine if todays equivalents (GTA, COD, Assassins Creed, Fifa) were sony or microsoft exclusive and how that would prevent real compition

And the xbox 360 was a sucess before the PS3 even came out, it had sold 8m units by jan 2007. More units then the Wii U sold in 2 years and higher then the original xbox. You gotta give credit where its due, and being a year early provided microsoft with neccessary chance in the same way it helped the PS1 against the N64.

You seem a bit out of touch with how third parties work,  its not gonna be an either or situation going forward. They will not have to pick between Nintendo system or the PS5. Architecturally, consoles will stay the x86 route as that is the most efficient for developers, logic says they will jump onto the Nintendo's new if its architecturally in line with what they're making at the time and targeting a similar audience. It also means utilising the additional power in early 3rd party games will be very easy. Its not comparable to the Wii U situation because the system is not signifcantly more powerful the PS3 and 360 and infact its CPU is weaker then the 360s hence the dodgy ports. Its an awkward system, that no developer asked for.  By 2017, PC versions of third games will likely be much better then the console counter parts as was the case towards the end of last gen. Nintendo weren't able to capitalise on it because they didn't go the X86 route, plus the wii u really isn't powerfull. Plus their launch year was weak. Plus it had a dumb ass name and a controller which just confused people...

Arrive early enough to get a headstart and capitalise off the dated ps4 and X1 with superior 3rd party games, get a year of being able to boast ''most powerful system ever'' but not so early that you're mid gen and aren't considered a real leap forward. Be in the same ballpark as PS5/X2 (the same way the PS2 as in the same ballpark as the gamecube despite being weaker), rebrand for a more neutral demographics (i.e not kids or family and definitely no wii in the title), create and market third party bundles and have killer first party line up for year 1 so people associate their brand with big future releases and not just mario. But thats how I see it anyway, arriving early is only a problem if its premature for reasons regarding tech or software. I can't see that being the case especially because the diminishing returns of new tech. If Nintendo can deliver near CG quality at 1080p-60FPS, then I don't see what PS5 being 1.5x more powerful will matter. A year isn't gonna allow them blow nintendo out the water unless they wanna go the $600 route or higher.