| Experimental42 said:
You just made my point. You think the PS1 and PS2 are the "early" release consoles. They're not. The Saturn and Dreamcast came out earlier than both respectively and were killed by all the following consoles. There's a precedence for early consoles being killed just as I predict will happen if Nintendo releases a new console early. I'll say it now, if Nintendo releases a new console that's stronger than the PS4, Sony will show off conceptual art for a PS5 game within the month. Just like they did with the bullsh*t old man demo to show off PS2's graphics and how much more powerful it was than the Dreamcast. The XB360 was only successful because the PS3 release was almost as stupid as the XB1 launch. They charged 500 dollars, had crappy online, it sucked to develop for, and had vastly inferior ports. What do you thinks's going to happen? Third parties will go to Nintendo's obvious dead duck early release console? Or will they do what they did with the PS3/360/WiiU where Wii U got inferior multiplat support despite being stronger? I really doubt they'll put the extra effort in to make a better looking game for ONLY Nintendo, especially when most can't even be bothered to make a PC version that isn't complete garbage on release. Release with the others, share the common architecture, have roughly the same power, and you will guarantee multiplat support for the entire generation. It's the biggest flaw with the Wii U, and an early release console is subject to the SAME issue. |
Releasing at the same time could work for them but it would be far more work What they can't do is release after which is what your OP seems to be suggesting ''Wait until the specs for next gen PS/XB are hammered out and then focus on making a box on par with them. ''
Both saturn and Dreamcast were killed by segas poor management.The saturn was launch a disaster dropping e system out of nowhere and it completely lacked in software in a way which isn't comparable to any launch we've seen in recent memory. The Dreamcast suffered from Sega's previous failure as well as the inevitable dominance of the PS2. Again PS2 had all of the third party exclusives which really mattered at the time (GTA, Final Fantasy, Tekken, Metal Gear Solid, Pro Evo). Dreamcast, Gamecube and Xbox were all destined for sub 30m sales as long as most developers sided with sony. Take a second to imagine if todays equivalents (GTA, COD, Assassins Creed, Fifa) were sony or microsoft exclusive and how that would prevent real compition
And the xbox 360 was a sucess before the PS3 even came out, it had sold 8m units by jan 2007. More units then the Wii U sold in 2 years and higher then the original xbox. You gotta give credit where its due, and being a year early provided microsoft with neccessary chance in the same way it helped the PS1 against the N64.
You seem a bit out of touch with how third parties work, its not gonna be an either or situation going forward. They will not have to pick between Nintendo system or the PS5. Architecturally, consoles will stay the x86 route as that is the most efficient for developers, logic says they will jump onto the Nintendo's new if its architecturally in line with what they're making at the time and targeting a similar audience. It also means utilising the additional power in early 3rd party games will be very easy. Its not comparable to the Wii U situation because the system is not signifcantly more powerful the PS3 and 360 and infact its CPU is weaker then the 360s hence the dodgy ports. Its an awkward system, that no developer asked for. By 2017, PC versions of third games will likely be much better then the console counter parts as was the case towards the end of last gen. Nintendo weren't able to capitalise on it because they didn't go the X86 route, plus the wii u really isn't powerfull. Plus their launch year was weak. Plus it had a dumb ass name and a controller which just confused people...
Arrive early enough to get a headstart and capitalise off the dated ps4 and X1 with superior 3rd party games, get a year of being able to boast ''most powerful system ever'' but not so early that you're mid gen and aren't considered a real leap forward. Be in the same ballpark as PS5/X2 (the same way the PS2 as in the same ballpark as the gamecube despite being weaker), rebrand for a more neutral demographics (i.e not kids or family and definitely no wii in the title), create and market third party bundles and have killer first party line up for year 1 so people associate their brand with big future releases and not just mario. But thats how I see it anyway, arriving early is only a problem if its premature for reasons regarding tech or software. I can't see that being the case especially because the diminishing returns of new tech. If Nintendo can deliver near CG quality at 1080p-60FPS, then I don't see what PS5 being 1.5x more powerful will matter. A year isn't gonna allow them blow nintendo out the water unless they wanna go the $600 route or higher.
