Sony has done Hotel Transylvania and The Smurfs right? I'm not sure what else they've done.
Thing is their CG movies have been quite profitable:
Hotel Transylvania = $385 million global box office off a $85 million budget.
The Smurfs = $562 million global box office ($110 mill budget)
The Smurfs 2 = $347 million global box office ($105 mill budget)
If a Mario movie performs similiarly to any of those, I'd have to think Mario 2/3 movies will be greenlit fairly quickly. It's not like any of the above films were that good. If Mario is decent I think it could earn $380-$500 million globally.
If it's a really good movie though I think you're talking a biiiiig movie franchise with box office north of $600 million.
Nintendo was quite hands on with Bowser being in Wreck It Ralph too, right? I wonder if this means no Mario in Wreck It Ralph 2?