Will Mario Kart 8 outsell Mario Kart Super Circuit?

brute

Currently Offline

77,357

11519 posts since 09/01/08

Recent Badges:

15 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 15 years.
Genocide 5,000 posts on the gamrConnect forums.
Everything's Falling Into Place Add a total of 100 games to your collection.
7 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 7 years.
It's a Start Bank a Total of 2,000 VG$.
Trust Me, It'll Have Legs 100 replies made to user's most popular thread.

brute on 24 October 2014

Yes, and it will also outsell Double Dash when digital sales are included as well.

tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

curl-6

Currently Offline

339,374

40146 posts since 30/04/10

Recent Badges:

Squirrel in a Past Life Earned 250,000 gamrPoints
The Nuts & Bolts Add a total of 25 games to your collection.
We're Still Watching You Received 50,000 profile views.
12 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 12 years.
13 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 13 years.
Seriously... Bank a Total of 10,000 VG$

curl-6 on 24 October 2014

Slarvax said:

OT: It should end right below DD. Maybe by a million or less, but no closer than 300k. I doubt DLC will boost sales at all.

The comparison was versus Super Circuit. ;)

Slarvax

Currently Offline

49,150

8949 posts since 14/09/13

Recent Badges:

A Civilized Man Managed to avoid being banned for 5 years.
Pata 100 wall post comments made on gamrConnect.
Freezing Logged in on Christmas day.
Mighty Heart Logged in on Valentine's Day.
Breaking Out Managed to avoid being banned for 1 year.
Escape Artist Managed to avoid being banned for 1 month.

Currently Playing:

Super Mario 3D World (WiiU)
EarthBound (SNES)

Slarvax on 24 October 2014

curl-6 said:

Slarvax said:

OT: It should end right below DD. Maybe by a million or less, but no closer than 300k. I doubt DLC will boost sales at all.

The comparison was versus Super Circuit. ;)

That would be above Super Circuit by at least 400k.

I just don't see it NOT happening :P

Bet with bluedawgs: I say Switch will outsell PS4 in 2018, he says PS4 will outsell Switch. He's now permabanned, but the bet will remain in my sig.

NNID: Slarvax - Steam: Slarvax - Friend Code: SW 7885-0552-5988

AZWification

Currently Offline

88,868

22562 posts since 13/06/13

Recent Badges:

A Small Correction Updated 10 Games.
Spreading the Disease Score a total of 50 games in your collection.
Some Here, Some There Bank a Total of 5,000 VG$.
Breaking Out Managed to avoid being banned for 1 year.
4 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 4 years.
Pata 100 wall post comments made on gamrConnect.

Currently Playing:

Left 4 Dead 2 (PC)
Monster Hunter Tri (Wii)
Super Paper Mario (Wii)
Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door (GC)

AZWification on 25 October 2014

Yes! I will even go on a limb and say that it will reach Double Dash in terms of sales! ( Come on, 7 million is not hard to achieve)

---Member of the official Squeezol Fanclub---

bunchanumbers

Currently Offline

14,936

4432 posts since 29/06/14

Recent Badges:

Open For Business Earned 10 badges.
Trust Me, It'll Have Legs 100 replies made to user's most popular thread.
It's a Start Bank a Total of 2,000 VG$.
Watch Your Back! Received 10,000 profile views.
Site Veteran Has been a VGChartz member for over 5 years.
First Rung Of The Ladder Earned 10,000 gamrPoints

bunchanumbers on 25 October 2014

I wouldn't doubt if it is over 3.5m after the holidays. The MK8 bundle making its triumphant return will go a long way towards more sales. Nintendo should be doing another buy one get one deal though. That would be huge for them.

curl-6

Currently Offline

339,374

40146 posts since 30/04/10

Recent Badges:

4 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 4 years.
Brotherhood 100 friends on gamrConnect.
'Ello Princess! Awarded for signing up.
Making Progress Earned 50,000 gamrPoints
A Free Man Managed to avoid being banned for 2 years.
Seriously... Bank a Total of 10,000 VG$

curl-6 on 25 October 2014

AZWification said:

Yes! I will even go on a limb and say that it will reach Double Dash in terms of sales! ( Come on, 7 million is not hard to achieve)

If we include digital sales, I reckon it has a chance at passing Double Dash.

MoHasanie

Currently Offline

74,268

13221 posts since 05/12/12

Recent Badges:

'Ello Princess! Awarded for signing up.
A Civilized Man Managed to avoid being banned for 5 years.
Right Tool for the Right Tool Score a total of 25 games in your collection.
So You Came Back For More, Huh? Logged in a second time.
Open For Business Earned 10 badges.
Spreading the Disease Score a total of 50 games in your collection.

MoHasanie on 25 October 2014

I think its possible but by the end of the gen.

NNID: FrequentFlyer54

Pineapple

Currently Offline

6,032

1078 posts since 03/06/09

Recent Badges:

'Ello Princess! Awarded for signing up.
Haunted Logged in on Halloween.
4 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 4 years.
14 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 14 years.
Quite a Comeback Enter your first Prediction League event.
A Free Man Managed to avoid being banned for 2 years.

Pineapple on 25 October 2014

A logical point of reference for Mario Kart 8's sales is the previous Mario Kart games.

Mario Kart 7 and Mario Kart 8launched during the holiday season, which makes things a little tricky. We can try to adjust for that by simply ignoring the first 6 weeks of sales. If we do that, we get the following situation.

	After 6 weeks	After 20 weeks	Sales in those 14 weeks	Expected lifetime (7) or actual lifetime(Wii/DS)
Mario Kart DS	2362k	3674k	1312k	22947k
Mario Kart Wii	4580k	7070k	2490k	34652k
Mario Kart 7	4181k	5295k	1114k	~ 13000k
Mario Kart 8 (lacking digital)	2033k	2743k	710k

So, Mario Kart DS sold 5.7% of its sales in those 14 weeks (which are January-April)
Mario Kart Wii sold 7.2% of its total sales in those 14 weeks (June to September)
Mario Kart 7 looks to have sold around 8.56% of its total sales in those 14 weeks.

In order for Mario Kart 8 to fail to outsell Super Circuit, it will need to have sold more than 13% of its sales in those 14 weeks. With digital sales included, it's likely somewhere around 15%.

In other words, Mario Kart 8 would need absolutely atrocious legs compared to the other games in the series, relative to its sales from week 6 to 20. There is no genuinely good reason for this to be the case.

Which means that the chances of Mario Kart 8 failing to outsell Super Circuit are extremely slim.