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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Can/will Nintendo ever see the Wii + DS height ever again?

oniyide on 28 September 2014
archbrix said:
RolStoppable said:
Teeqoz said:

How?

Because you imply that that is wrong when it actually is how things work.

Think about it: How can Nintendo hardware continue to exist when third party support is so lackluster and has been for two decades now? The only explanation is that Nintendo content drives the hardware sales, because ultimately dedicated gaming machines are bought to play video games. Hardware doesn't sell itself.

Your last sentence in the preceding post makes the mistake of drawing a conclusion based on current market conditions and accepting them as definitive. Let's go back ten years: It's 2004, the GameCube struggles mightily, third parties are abandoning ship. Now the question is posed if Nintendo will ever be able to reach the NES height again. Your answer would be: "No, because the NES didn't have the fierce competition of Sony and Microsoft that Nintendo has now." - But if we go back to the present, to the year 2014, we have the benefit of hindsight. Now we know that Nintendo not only reached the NES height, but eclipsed it. We know that looking at market conditions of a given time and thinking of them as unchangeable can make us horribly wrong, especially in a business that resets to 0 each generation.

And this leads back to it being in Nintendo's hands to create software that pushes their hardware to such heights. Nintendogs and Brain Training have fizzled out in the 3DS era, but what's there that prevents Nintendo from making new IPs? Only their own decision-making processes. Nintendogs and Brain Training were new IPs in the DS era and largely responsible for the sales uptick in hardware. Before their releases, the DS lagged behind the GBA. Afterwards the DS accelerated and never looked back.

Great post that says it all, really.

If Nintendo had launched a motion control console with no software to show that there was vision behind the design in the first place, it likely would have bombed spectacularly.  This has never been more evident than with the WiiU; it still doesn't have the game that shows that Nintendo had a reason for the console's design.  

This is why I think (read: hope) that Mario Maker is a success - because the game, theoretically, has the chops to do more for WiiU than any of the Wii Sports/Wii Fit sequels that they throw at it.  It gives the console its own identity.


Its a 2d platformer with with create a level options. Sony has been doing this with LBP for years. Now i know some will say  "but, but, Mario!" clearly that IP hasnt been enough to move WIi U out of its funk and IMHO I dont think this game which if im being real should have been done years ago is going to do much. Would be cool if it did though



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oniyide on 28 September 2014
RolStoppable said:
Teeqoz said:

You don't really mean that the handheld market isn't shrinking right? It's not like people will all of a sudden stop buying smartphones.

The current forecast is that the handheld market will continually shrink and ultimately has no future. People look at the 3DS and PSV, and predict that it's going to get worse for their successors (if they will be made at all) because all current sales data points to that. My point is that such a trajectory is not set in stone in a business that works with resets of installed bases. Everytime a company launches a next generation system, they start at 0 all over again. Therefore the perception that current handheld systems have (devices that are on their way out because they will be replaced by smartphones) may or may not be the same in the future.

Another example: The Xbox 360 did beat the PS3 in the USA by a significant margin, so many people expected that the Xbox One would beat the PS4. Their reasoning didn't go beyond "Xbox rules now, it's going to stay like that.", but the launch of these eighth generation systems was a reset, so the previous market conditions were rendered null and void. Not even a year has passed since the launch of these systems, but the way the market is viewed has changed dramatically already.

The handheld market is shrinking this generation, there is no doubt about it. But that can be reversed in the next generation.


is that really a good comparison? we know where the lost 360 owners went and are going.  If we accept that handheld gamers are going to smartphones/tablets, then that is a market that is much bigger with  much higher ceiling and they dont start from 0



oniyide on 28 September 2014

to answer the question. Doubt it. Ninty would have to do something really unique and it would have to work.



51JBerger on 28 September 2014

I don't think so.



AZWification on 28 September 2014

No fucking way..... :/



                
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Fusioncode on 28 September 2014

Not a chance.



Sigs are dumb. And so are you!

archbrix on 28 September 2014
oniyide said:
archbrix said:

[...]

This is why I think (read: hope) that Mario Maker is a success - because the game, theoretically, has the chops to do more for WiiU than any of the Wii Sports/Wii Fit sequels that they throw at it.  It gives the console its own identity.


Its a 2d platformer with with create a level options. Sony has been doing this with LBP for years. Now i know some will say  "but, but, Mario!" clearly that IP hasnt been enough to move WIi U out of its funk and IMHO I dont think this game which if im being real should have been done years ago is going to do much. Would be cool if it did though

Nintendo's been doing level creation since the NES, but it's not that aspect alone that gives me hope for Mario Maker.  When I created something in LBP, I wasn't really having fun until I jumped in to play.  With MM, part of why you buy the game seems to be the level-making process itself.  The tools and intuitive interface are easy for anyone to understand and use.  The whole Minecraft craze going on right now could also help MM be a success.  But the most important thing (to me) that MM does do is show how the Gamepad can be used very usefully.  The game could exist without it, sure, but it wouldn't be the same without it.

I could easily be wrong though and MM could end up performing modestly when it comes out next year, but one thing is certain:  If Mario Maker does end up being a big hit, then the WiiU would be doing much better now had it been a launch game.



Mummelmann on 28 September 2014

250 million + consoles sold in one generation between handheld and home consoles? Not even close; nor will anyone else for that matter.



Cheebee on 28 September 2014

No, nor will any dedicated video game platform, imo.



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I3LuEI3omI3eR on 28 September 2014

Nah, they won't. No company will. The mobile and tablet market take too much of the game market now to warrant such success in the console/handheld market.

Only way I see this happening is if Nintendo SOMEHOW combines Mobile or a tablet device with Handheld/console gaming, but that idea is REALLY far fetched. We all know how the N-gage turned out.