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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction: Wii U Won't Make to the 21m

 

what do you think?

Wii u will sell more than 40m 123 31.95%
 
Wii u wont make it to 25m 163 42.34%
 
Nintendo will release a n... 33 8.57%
 
Nintendo FTW!!! 66 17.14%
 
Total:385
gabzjmm23 on 21 September 2014

xenoblade x and zelda u would help 2015 for sure if Wii U got 10 million by 2015 that would already great



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toastboy44562 on 21 September 2014

wII U would b lucky o hit 15 million to be honest



*Sound Of Rain on 21 September 2014

I believe Wii U won't reach 20 Million

A Price Cut could have a massive unseen effect though so we'll see.



Vena on 21 September 2014
Wazowski said:

Ok, this is not to piss any fan, i like the Wii U, but anyway i'm calling it now.

Wii U is heading to it's 2nd birthday, and by now, it sold a bit more than 7m, by the end of the year it will be around 10m (with luck)

Let's do some math! Let's go with the weekly baseline of 40,000 and see what happens: (Note I round to closest tenth.)

((52 weeks a year - 8 weeks for Holidays)*40000 baseline)*2 Years = 3.5 million

3.5 million + 7 million = 10.5 million.

Holidays, we'll work off low the average of ~200k:

(8 weeks for Holidays*200000 Holiday average)*2 Years of Holidays remaining = 3.2 million

10.5+3.2 million = 13.7 million sold.

So in the next two years, of which we can see or foresee continued software support, and where we use a low/bad baseline and average, sales look to reach ~14 million. If the WiiU holds for one years more over that, at the same rate, it would reach ~17 million. Putting it will below the NGC.

Will the baseline remaing 40k? That's a question to ponder, and the stronger software release schedule in Holidays+2015 may actually push it a little higher and skew the numbers upwards... but it could also fall lower, though that is something I'd find hard to believe. If we take a positive stance and say that the next two years will see a baseline more around 60k and Holidays a higher average of, say, 300k, then numbers gain another 3.5 million in sales, or ~17 million total in the next two years. (This baseline could be possible with price cuts also coming into play, may even bring it higher.)

Math of the additional difference:

((52 weeks a year - 8 weeks for Holidays)*(60000-40000 baseline))*2 Years = 1.8 million

(8 weeks for Holidays*(300000-200000 Holiday average))*2 Years of Holidays remaining = 1.6 million

1.8 + 1.6 million = 3.4 million additional sales.

13.7 + 3.4 = 17 million.

If it has another year in it after two, and maintains these lines, it will reach NGC. Throw in the occasional mass-seller like Zelda, Smash, and Xenoblade or other possible dark horse, and you can toss on another million. So at the end of the day, I'd say we're looking at reaching:

18 million after another two years.



Renzan on 21 September 2014
toastboy44562 said:
wII U would b lucky o hit 15 million to be honest


Luck? Hard work to create system sellers on weaker console.



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Renzan on 21 September 2014
Vena said:
Wazowski said:

Ok, this is not to piss any fan, i like the Wii U, but anyway i'm calling it now.

Wii U is heading to it's 2nd birthday, and by now, it sold a bit more than 7m, by the end of the year it will be around 10m (with luck)

Let's do some math! Let's go with the weekly baseline of 40,000 and see what happens: (Note I round to closest tenth.)

((52 weeks a year - 8 weeks for Holidays)*40000 baseline)*2 Years = 3.5 million

3.5 million + 7 million = 10.5 million.

Holidays, we'll work off low the average of ~200k:

(8 weeks for Holidays*200000 Holiday average)*2 Years of Holidays remaining = 3.2 million

10.5+3.2 million = 13.7 million sold.

So in the next two years, of which we can see or foresee continued software support, and where we use a low/bad baseline and average, sales look to reach ~14 million. If the WiiU holds for one years more over that, at the same rate, it would reach ~17 million. Putting it will below the NGC.

Will the baseline remaing 40k? That's a question to ponder, and the stronger software release schedule in Holidays+2015 may actually push it a little higher and skew the numbers upwards... but it could also fall lower, though that is something I'd find hard to believe. If we take a positive stance and say that the next two years will see a baseline more around 60k and Holidays a higher average of, say, 300k, then numbers gain another 3.5 million in sales, or ~17 million total in the next two years. (This baseline could be possible with price cuts also coming into play, may even bring it higher.)

Math of the additional difference:

((52 weeks a year - 8 weeks for Holidays)*(60000-40000 baseline))*2 Years = 1.8 million

(8 weeks for Holidays*(300000-200000 Holiday average))*2 Years of Holidays remaining = 1.6 million

1.8 + 1.6 million = 3.4 million additional sales.

13.7 + 3.4 = 17 million.

If it has another year in it after two, and maintains these lines, it will reach NGC. Throw in the occasional mass-seller like Zelda, Smash, and Xenoblade or other possible dark horse, and you can toss on another million. So at the end of the day, I'd say we're looking at reaching:

18 million after another two years.


That is why I tell 17-25. I think some games will help, and there is possibility that N do something unexpected.



Wazowski on 21 September 2014
Vena said:

Let's do some math! Let's go with the weekly baseline of 40,000 and see what happens: (Note I round to closest tenth.)

((52 weeks a year - 8 weeks for Holidays)*40000 baseline)*2 Years = 3.5 million

3.5 million + 7 million = 10.5 million.

Holidays, we'll work off low the average of ~200k:

(8 weeks for Holidays*200000 Holiday average)*2 Years of Holidays remaining = 3.2 million

10.5+3.2 million = 13.7 million sold.

So in the next two years, of which we can see or foresee continued software support, and where we use a low/bad baseline and average, sales look to reach ~14 million. If the WiiU holds for one years more over that, at the same rate, it would reach ~17 million. Putting it will below the NGC.

Will the baseline remaing 40k? That's a question to ponder, and the stronger software release schedule in Holidays+2015 may actually push it a little higher and skew the numbers upwards... but it could also fall lower, though that is something I'd find hard to believe. If we take a positive stance and say that the next two years will see a baseline more around 60k and Holidays a higher average of, say, 300k, then numbers gain another 3.5 million in sales, or ~17 million total in the next two years. (This baseline could be possible with price cuts also coming into play, may even bring it higher.)

Math of the additional difference:

((52 weeks a year - 8 weeks for Holidays)*(60000-40000 baseline))*2 Years = 1.8 million

(8 weeks for Holidays*(300000-200000 Holiday average))*2 Years of Holidays remaining = 1.6 million

1.8 + 1.6 million = 3.4 million additional sales.

13.7 + 3.4 = 17 million.

If it has another year in it after two, and maintains these lines, it will reach NGC. Throw in the occasional mass-seller like Zelda, Smash, and Xenoblade or other possible dark horse, and you can toss on another million. So at the end of the day, I'd say we're looking at reaching:

18 million after another two years.

we need take to account price drops and bundles, a good price drop can change a lot of things, now is just up to Nintendo to do it right..



Vena on 21 September 2014
Wazowski said:

we need take to account price drops and bundles, a good price drop can change a lot of things, now is just up to Nintendo to do it right..


As I said in the post, we don't know what a price-drop will do. But Nintendo won't drop the price until they've gone through the pre-ordained 10 million gamepad contract for the parts, that's probably not long into the future as gamepads get sold/replaced as well along the way.



Aerys on 21 September 2014
Wazowski said:
Vena said:

Let's do some math! Let's go with the weekly baseline of 40,000 and see what happens: (Note I round to closest tenth.)

((52 weeks a year - 8 weeks for Holidays)*40000 baseline)*2 Years = 3.5 million

3.5 million + 7 million = 10.5 million.

Holidays, we'll work off low the average of ~200k:

(8 weeks for Holidays*200000 Holiday average)*2 Years of Holidays remaining = 3.2 million

10.5+3.2 million = 13.7 million sold.

So in the next two years, of which we can see or foresee continued software support, and where we use a low/bad baseline and average, sales look to reach ~14 million. If the WiiU holds for one years more over that, at the same rate, it would reach ~17 million. Putting it will below the NGC.

Will the baseline remaing 40k? That's a question to ponder, and the stronger software release schedule in Holidays+2015 may actually push it a little higher and skew the numbers upwards... but it could also fall lower, though that is something I'd find hard to believe. If we take a positive stance and say that the next two years will see a baseline more around 60k and Holidays a higher average of, say, 300k, then numbers gain another 3.5 million in sales, or ~17 million total in the next two years. (This baseline could be possible with price cuts also coming into play, may even bring it higher.)

Math of the additional difference:

((52 weeks a year - 8 weeks for Holidays)*(60000-40000 baseline))*2 Years = 1.8 million

(8 weeks for Holidays*(300000-200000 Holiday average))*2 Years of Holidays remaining = 1.6 million

1.8 + 1.6 million = 3.4 million additional sales.

13.7 + 3.4 = 17 million.

If it has another year in it after two, and maintains these lines, it will reach NGC. Throw in the occasional mass-seller like Zelda, Smash, and Xenoblade or other possible dark horse, and you can toss on another million. So at the end of the day, I'd say we're looking at reaching:

18 million after another two years.

we need take to account price drops and bundles, a good price drop can change a lot of things, now is just up to Nintendo to do it right..

Well, NGC had a huge price drop, it only helped it to reach 22M



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

drake_tolu on 21 September 2014
toastboy44562 said:
wII U would b lucky o hit 15 million to be honest

Ok, seriusly. LUCKY!?

For you is lucky sell 15,000,000?

And if don't will be lucky how much will sell, 10,000,00-12,000,000...?

That is impossible. If will sell 15,000,000 will be unlucky, because is IMPOSSIBLE that will sell less, and the minimum of how much can sell Wii U isn't lucky.

Will be lucky if will sell the maximum how can sell.