Vena said:
Let's do some math! Let's go with the weekly baseline of 40,000 and see what happens: (Note I round to closest tenth.)
((52 weeks a year - 8 weeks for Holidays)*40000 baseline)*2 Years = 3.5 million
3.5 million + 7 million = 10.5 million.
Holidays, we'll work off low the average of ~200k:
(8 weeks for Holidays*200000 Holiday average)*2 Years of Holidays remaining = 3.2 million
10.5+3.2 million = 13.7 million sold.
So in the next two years, of which we can see or foresee continued software support, and where we use a low/bad baseline and average, sales look to reach ~14 million. If the WiiU holds for one years more over that, at the same rate, it would reach ~17 million. Putting it will below the NGC.
Will the baseline remaing 40k? That's a question to ponder, and the stronger software release schedule in Holidays+2015 may actually push it a little higher and skew the numbers upwards... but it could also fall lower, though that is something I'd find hard to believe. If we take a positive stance and say that the next two years will see a baseline more around 60k and Holidays a higher average of, say, 300k, then numbers gain another 3.5 million in sales, or ~17 million total in the next two years. (This baseline could be possible with price cuts also coming into play, may even bring it higher.)
Math of the additional difference:
((52 weeks a year - 8 weeks for Holidays)*(60000-40000 baseline))*2 Years = 1.8 million
(8 weeks for Holidays*(300000-200000 Holiday average))*2 Years of Holidays remaining = 1.6 million
1.8 + 1.6 million = 3.4 million additional sales.
13.7 + 3.4 = 17 million.
If it has another year in it after two, and maintains these lines, it will reach NGC. Throw in the occasional mass-seller like Zelda, Smash, and Xenoblade or other possible dark horse, and you can toss on another million. So at the end of the day, I'd say we're looking at reaching:
18 million after another two years.
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